January Banter Thread

[clueless]

This was the best kind of snow event. Unexpected upside with everyone happy. So glad that the folks in the city cashed in. The city looks wonderful in snowfall. I wish the rest of the winter would continue like this...

[ThePhotoGuy]

I love how Sterling never adds my snow totals to the list even though I am a spotter.

[MN Transplant]

Just saw a shooting star. Nice over the snow cover.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I love how Sterling never adds my snow totals to the list even though I am a spotter.

How do you become a spotter? I know I measure accurately

[AdamHLG]

Why is there no thread for a possible event this weekend? Did I miss it on this new tapatalk pos? I was surprised to learn about it on afdlwx first.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Why is there no thread for a possible event this weekend? Did I miss it on this new tapatalk pos? I was surprised to learn about it on afdlwx first.

[WVclimo]

How do you become a spotter? I know I measure accurately

Attend a Skywarn BASIC 1 class, and you will be assigned a Spotter ID. They have them in our area occasionally. I took one in Front Royal a while back, and did the WINTER one in Williamsport, Md., near here. When classes are scheduled, they are posted here:

http://www.weather.gov/lwx/skywarn

[donsutherland1]

Now that the clipper is in the past, some school administrators are, in fact, trying to pass accountability for their bad decision not to delay or close schools.

 

From The Washington Post:

 

Bob Mosier, spokesman for Anne Arundel schools, said the decision to stay open was based on forecasts that showed a “dusting” of snow for the county. When snowfall started outpacing the forecast, officials contemplated a two-hour delay. They decided against it because they worried it would put young drivers on the road in the middle of rush hour with worsening road conditions.

 

“In hindsight, would we have done it differently? Yes, we would have,” Mosier said.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/many-of-regions-schools-opened-in-storm-drawing-ire/2015/01/06/3ead53d6-95b4-11e4-8005-1924ede3e54a_story.html?hpid=z6

 

I suggest that Mr. Mosier should avoid the PR spin. NWS did not, repeat not, forecast only a "dusting."

 

From NWS Sterling:

 

1/5 3:12 pm:

LEADING EDGE OF SNOW IS A NARROW BAND
ORIENTED ALONG THE UPR NW FLOW OVER NRN MO. THIS WILL REACH THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN
OVERSPREAD THE BALT-WASH METRO THROUGH THE REST OF THE LATE NIGHT.
RAISED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AT 1 AM...AND EAST
OF THERE INCL NRN SHEN VLY AND BALT-WASH METRO NORTH FROM PRINCE
WILLIAM/PRINCE GEORGES STARTING AT 4AM. SINCE THIS SNOW WILL OCCUR
DURING THE MORNING TRAFFIC RUSH...A ONE INCH CRITERIA IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE GREATER BALT-WASH METRO. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR HOURS
AHEAD OF THE SNOW WILL LEAD TO PARTICULARLY SLICK ROADS.

1/5 9:25 pm:

SNOW WILL LIKELY START OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CWA LATER AT NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE MORNING RUSH
HOUR WILL BE IMPACTED.

SYSTEM WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT BANDING CHARACTERISTICS...SO LOCALLY
HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE GENERAL SNOWFALL
FORECAST. GENERAL FORECAST IS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHLANDS
AND 1 TO 2 INCHES FURTHER EAST TO/THROUGH THE WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE
METRO AREA. WILL ADD SHENANDOAH/WARREN ON THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE
TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BASED ON LATEST RUC/NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING A SLR OF AT LEAST 12:1 WHICH MAY YIELD UP
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

1/6 3:37 am:

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND WITH COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO QUICKLY BREAK OUT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE TO THREE INCHES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SNOW AND NO SNOW WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND...SO ANY SLIGHT CHANGE IN THAT
WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO A
CONCERN FOR BANDING PRECIPITATION THAT COULD CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MARYLAND...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
RADAR TRENDS AND REPORTS THIS MORNING. WITH COLD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL ACCUMULATE ON ALL UNTREATED
SURFACES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

In short:

 

1. NWS had advisories in place.

2. NWS warned that the morning rush hour would be impacted.

3. NWS warned that snow would accumulate on untreated surfaces and that roads could be "slick."

4. NWS warned that the snow could exhibit banding characteristics that would produce localized higher amounts.

 

More than sufficient information was available for decision makers. That the snowfall wound up somewhat heavier than had been expected was not relevant, given the earlier information that was sufficient.

 

[donsutherland1]

It is extra frustrating for me because of the accident my brother was in taking my niece to school in Balt City this AM. Totally weather and road conditions related. A two-hour delay would have helped. I just don't get it.

I'm sorry to learn of this accident. I hope both of them are ok.

[H2O]

good stuff, Don.  It is dishonest of the school officials to lay this on the forecast.  With how things are today, technology wise, there was plenty of indication yesterday morning that things were going to be worse.  They had all that info available to them to make an informed decision.  They just didn't want a 2" storm to close things.  It was a predetermined mindset.

[donsutherland1]

good stuff, Don.  It is dishonest of the school officials to lay this on the forecast.  With how things are today, technology wise, there was plenty of indication yesterday morning that things were going to be worse.  They had all that info available to them to make an informed decision.  They just didn't want a 2" storm to close things.  It was a predetermined mindset.

I fully agree with you. Some of these areas also had their first accumulating snowfall of the season and the first snowfall often results in an abnormally high number of accidents. They rolled the proverbial dice, lost, and then blamed the forecasters for their own risky decision.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Attend a Skywarn BASIC 1 class, and you will be assigned a Spotter ID. They have them in our area occasionally. I took one in Front Royal a while back, and did the WINTER one in Williamsport, Md., near here. When classes are scheduled, they are posted here:

http://www.weather.gov/lwx/skywarn

Thank you

[North Balti Zen]

My son is 13 now - old enough to attend a Skywarn BASIC class and become a spotter? I would love to feed his burgeoning love of weather and meteorology.

[clueless]

Good that Jason set the record straight on the CWG (and every else's) forecast. #noexcuses.

[donsutherland1]

Good that Jason set the record straight on the CWG (and every else's) forecast. #noexcuses.

Agreed. For those who are interested, his piece can be found at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/06/loudoun-fairfax-county-schools-failed-by-opening-on-time-today/

[wxdude64]

My son is 13 now - old enough to attend a Skywarn BASIC class and become a spotter? I would love to feed his burgeoning love of weather and meteorology.

Yes, my son went to one and signed up at 12.

[North Balti Zen]

Thanks! Will try and find a Basics I course in the next few months for us then. Nice.

[North Balti Zen]

I'm sorry to learn of this accident. I hope both of them are ok.

 

Thanks Don. He's okay (normal after accident soreness) but the car is not. Could have been worse. Relieved.

[mappy]

Thanks! Will try and find a Basics I course in the next few months for us then. Nice.

 

Definitely worth the time -- Fozz and I happened to be at one together in spring of 2012, out in Westminster. In fact, Eskimojoe was there as the NWS helper. 

[feloniousq]

Agreed. For those who are interested, his piece can be found at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/06/loudoun-fairfax-county-schools-failed-by-opening-on-time-today/

 

Still too much buck-passing, in my opinion.  It's a little baffling how hard Bernstein, CWG, et al are coming at the school systems when (as Jason sheepishly admits) they were the first in line to criticize them for the opposite scenario last winter.  Do they not think that had at least some impact on yesterday's decision?

 

And sorry, the forecast was blown in Fairfax/Loudoun.  We can put all the qualifiers on forecasts that we like, but when 1-2" is forecast to fall sometime over the course of the morning until 12-1 PM, and then 5 inches fall with 3-3.5" on the ground by 7 AM, that's a bust-a-roo, sorry.  And you can't ignore the effect that has on all elements of this process.  Would VDOT have had plows out far earlier had [what actually happened] been forecast, or even mentioned?  I'd think so.  Instead, I saw multiple mets (one rhymes with Bave Dolleris) literally telling people not to worry because it's "just a clipper."

 

Mets (and us on this board) tend to get stuck in bubbles and forget that the general public neither knows nor cares about the intricacies of models, forecasts, etc.  You cannot really expect that the public or frankly even school administrators are going to be sitting around parsing every NWS scientific forecaster discussion.  The best "forecast" for yesterday would have been to say "Clippers are somewhat unpredictable.  We think ____ inches will fall, but it's entirely likely that impacts could be less or more in a given area.  Authorities should prepare accordingly." instead of "Meh, 1-2 inches, big whoop we're a snow town and this shouldn't bother us."

 

And you can bet the next time a stray mangled flurry falls all of these systems will close.  Let's hope the peanut gallery doesn't chime in on that decision too, or you'll see yesterday again.

[snowfan]

The fact that the forecast was wrong doesn't change the fact that there was snowfall forecast for the early morning rush hour times. That alone should've been good enough for those districts to go with a delayed arrival. The delayed arrival would've allowed for enough time to reconsider opening/closing. Seems simple to me. The districts that chose to open on time disregarded that forecast. That is on them, not the busted forecast. 

[North Balti Zen]

What's so hard about a two-hour delay to assess?

[stormtracker]

Still too much buck-passing, in my opinion.  It's a little baffling how hard Bernstein, CWG, et al are coming at the school systems when (as Jason sheepishly admits) they were the first in line to criticize them for the opposite scenario last winter.  Do they not think that had at least some impact on yesterday's decision?

 

And sorry, the forecast was blown in Fairfax/Loudoun.  We can put all the qualifiers on forecasts that we like, but when 1-2" is forecast to fall sometime over the course of the morning until 12-1 PM, and then 5 inches fall with 3-3.5" on the ground by 7 AM, that's a bust-a-roo, sorry.  And you can't ignore the effect that has on all elements of this process.  Would VDOT have had plows out far earlier had [what actually happened] been forecast, or even mentioned?  I'd think so.  Instead, I saw multiple mets (one rhymes with Bave Dolleris) literally telling people not to worry because it's "just a clipper."

 

Mets (and us on this board) tend to get stuck in bubbles and forget that the general public neither knows nor cares about the intricacies of models, forecasts, etc.  You cannot really expect that the public or frankly even school administrators are going to be sitting around parsing every NWS scientific forecaster discussion.  The best "forecast" for yesterday would have been to say "Clippers are somewhat unpredictable.  We think ____ inches will fall, but it's entirely likely that impacts could be less or more in a given area.  Authorities should prepare accordingly." instead of "Meh, 1-2 inches, big whoop we're a snow town and this shouldn't bother us."

 

And you can bet the next time a stray mangled flurry falls all of these systems will close.  Let's hope the peanut gallery doesn't chime in on that decision too, or you'll see yesterday again.

Wait a minute....this still leads to the SAME affect on the morning commute tho.   It's no buck passing.   When it RAINS around here, traffic comes to a screeching halt.   Whether is 1 to 2 inches in 25 degree weather or it's 3" on the ground at the same time..it's the same affect...forecasters clearly said that morning's commute was going to be painful.   Hell, local newscasters were banging that drum the night before.   The WWA that the NWS is targeted SPECIFICALLY FOR RUSH HOUR TIMING.     

[feloniousq]

Wait a minute....this still leads to the SAME affect on the morning commute tho.   It's no buck passing.   When it RAINS around here, traffic comes to a screeching halt.   Whether is 1 to 2 inches in 25 degree weather or it's 3" on the ground at the same time..it's the same affect...forecasters clearly said that morning's commute was going to be painful.   Hell, local newscasters were banging that drum the night before.   The WWA that the NWS is targeted SPECIFICALLY FOR RUSH HOUR TIMING.     

 

It's not the same effect when VDOT doesn't mobilize plows until 2 inches fall.  That's a dumb, dumb policy that needs to be revisited pronto.  It also doesn't help that Fairfax and especially Loudoun are now so stingy with taxes that we don't have anywhere close to sufficient road-clearing equipment.

[HighStakes]

What's so hard about a two-hour delay to assess?

What happened yesterday will happen again. It always does. After yesterday the schools will be very careful in the near future but as time goes on and it may be a couple years later, but it will happen again. Sometimes it is a very difficult decision but yesterday wasn't one of them. So I agree with you, a two-hour delay to assess.

[feloniousq]

Wait a minute....this still leads to the SAME affect on the morning commute tho.   It's no buck passing.   When it RAINS around here, traffic comes to a screeching halt.   Whether is 1 to 2 inches in 25 degree weather or it's 3" on the ground at the same time..it's the same affect...forecasters clearly said that morning's commute was going to be painful.   Hell, local newscasters were banging that drum the night before.   The WWA that the NWS is targeted SPECIFICALLY FOR RUSH HOUR TIMING.     

 

It also cannot be ignored that WWAs are simply not taken seriously by a whole bunch of people.  I recognize that WSW criteria is largely set in stone, but maybe there needs to be some exceptions to the rule or some other intermediate option for situations like this that will gather more attention.  We had a WWA in Loudoun on Saturday for some rain.  Then Tuesday.  Same advisory.  How do you think people react to that?

[wxdude64]

It's not the same effect when VDOT doesn't mobilize plows until 2 inches fall.  That's a dumb, dumb policy that needs to be revisited pronto.  It also doesn't help that Fairfax and especially Loudoun are now so stingy with taxes that we don't have anywhere close to sufficient road-clearing equipment.

Huh??? VDOT (and the contractors) were likely out in force from midnight on sitting on the Interstate ramps waiting for the first flakes. That is how it works in the western district anyway. Heck, we only have flurries/snow showers with less than 1 for today and they are out there. No, it is 100% on schools, if snow is called for in early am WHEN YOU ARE TRANSPORTING THE KIDS you take the two hour delay to assess, period.

[snowfan]

It also cannot be ignored that WWAs are simply not taken seriously by a whole bunch of people.  I recognize that WSW criteria is largely set in stone, but maybe there needs to be some exceptions to the rule or some other intermediate option for situations like this that will gather more attention.  We had a WWA in Loudoun on Saturday for some rain.  Then Tuesday.  Same advisory.  How do you think people react to that?

That's a pretty awful comparison. Every forecaster was saying it was going to snow yesterday morning. All of the other surrounding districts went with a delay. It just seems like these districts that opened on time are looking for any excuse to take deflect blame elsewhere. I left my house yesterday at 5:40a and snow was already accumulating here in AA Co. Roads were already slick. Rte 50 was already at a snails pace at 6am. The schools still opened on time, which was a terrible decision. That is their fault. Not the forecasters, the DOT, etc. 

[WxUSAF]

 The WWA that the NWS is targeted SPECIFICALLY FOR RUSH HOUR TIMING.     

This is the key point, IMO.  The entire area had a WWA for ~1" or more right at rush hour.  That warrants at least a 2hr delay, IMO, no matter what.  2hr delays are basically "free" anyway.  No excuse for not having one.  

[feloniousq]

This is the key point, IMO.  The entire area had a WWA for ~1" or more right at rush hour.  That warrants at least a 2hr delay, IMO, no matter what.  2hr delays are basically "free" anyway.  No excuse for not having one.  

 

They aren't really "free" for a lot of people if OPM doesn't do the same thing.