nw baltimore wx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 i knew you'd welsh on your bet I'm torn on the idea. It would be nice for him to follow through, but it's kind of train wreck fun if he doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 A part of me wants to think that sounds like the pattern we had for much of last winter, but the realistic side thinks it's not going to work out this time without a block. It can work but not pretty coastal crawlers unless things change. I'm really not down on this winter much at all. It's been cold at times and it's snowed a couple times. The early month clipper stuck around on the ground for a week. I have snow on the ground again for a couple days. January has felt and looked like winter. We've had plenty that don't. I would say the next 10 days or so look pretty wintry as well. Just gotta let the chips fall at this point and be thankful for any snow that falls. Pretty amazing bust with the AO this winter. Blindsided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It can work but not pretty coastal crawlers unless things change. I'm really not down on this winter much at all. It's been cold at times and it's snowed a couple times. The early month clipper stuck around on the ground for a week. I have snow on the ground again for a couple days. January has felt and looked like winter. We've had plenty that don't. I would say the next 10 days or so look pretty wintry as well. Just gotta let the chips fall at this point and be thankful for any snow that falls. Pretty amazing bust with the AO this winter. Blindsided. I am kinda opposite on the bold. Without something legit in terms of watch and then warning that verifies, I don't feel any fonder toward this winter than I did the two before last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I am kinda opposite on the bold. Without something legit in terms of watch and then warning that verifies, I don't feel any fonder toward this winter than I did the two before last. I gotta be honest, this winter is pretty bad (at least for my area). I've yet to receive a 3" or greater snowfall (largest was 2.25"). November wasn't bad, as accumulating snow SE of 95 is rare and I actually got .2". December... well, we all know about that. January wasn't terrible, but I still ended up below average on snowfall (5.45", assuming no more accum.). So far I'd rank this winter a "C", just an average below average winter. I'm really hoping February can at least put me at average snow. If it can't, I'd still like to see a warning-criteria snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm torn on the idea. It would be nice for him to follow through, but it's kind of train wreck fun if he doesn't. Nah, I'm leaving. I offered Ian a chance to meet up sometime, hopefully he takes me up on the offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 He took a cheapshot at me, so I think I get a free post. It wasn't a cheapshot. I almost thought you made an intentionally bad bet.. at first I was offering just to cover the already lowered forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 x2. Mass can break off into the Atlantic for all I care. California of the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It can work but not pretty coastal crawlers unless things change. I'm really not down on this winter much at all. It's been cold at times and it's snowed a couple times. The early month clipper stuck around on the ground for a week. I have snow on the ground again for a couple days. January has felt and looked like winter. We've had plenty that don't. I would say the next 10 days or so look pretty wintry as well. Just gotta let the chips fall at this point and be thankful for any snow that falls. Pretty amazing bust with the AO this winter. Blindsided. I was thinking about this yesterday--- The events in our area have been relatively small geographically. MoCo has really lucked out comparatively. I think for most on the board, a "legit" snow needs to clear the 2" threshold, and our county has had three events clear that threshold this month with two of them in the 2-4" range. I'm probably more positive about how January has gone than a lot on here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I was thinking about this yesterday--- The events in our area have been relatively small geographically. MoCo has really lucked out comparatively. I think for most on the board, a "legit" snow needs to clear the 2" threshold, and our county has had three events clear that threshold this month with two of them in the 2-4" range. I'm probably more positive about how January has gone than a lot on here too. This month has been fine.. it's about what we should probably 'expect' in January.. But it's hard to say things have gone well if you want more than a just topping the threshold event. I might be wrong but this past storm felt like a bad sign for our odds of something super memorable. I do kind of believe in atmospheric memory I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This month has been fine.. it's about what we should probably 'expect' in January.. But it's hard to say things have gone well if you want more than a just topping the threshold event. I might be wrong but this past storm felt like a bad sign for our odds of something super memorable. I do kind of believe in atmospheric memory I guess. Isn't there's a pretty big gap between a "more than topping the threshold event" and something "super memorable?" I think most would call it a season after one event that clears 5" area-wide (the warning event everyone talks about) alongside a couple other 2"-types. This season has vague echoes of 04/05, which would have been remembered much more fondly if either of the two February storms met the original forecast of 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This month has been fine.. it's about what we should probably 'expect' in January.. But it's hard to say things have gone well if you want more than a just topping the threshold event. I might be wrong but this past storm felt like a bad sign for our odds of something super memorable. I do kind of believe in atmospheric memory I guess. Select ensemble member #6 and check out d8-10. lol http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yeps_ensembles.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Select ensemble member #6 and check out d8-10. lol http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yeps_ensembles.php 12-18" followed by subzero cold. Nice. Actually, quite a few members push that 0F line pretty far south. Maybe IAD can grab a -1F or -2F early February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Select ensemble member #6 and check out d8-10. lol http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yeps_ensembles.php heh I didn't even realize that was there. could be a nightmare.. at least it doesn't have a snow map option. and yes on memorable.. though i was thinking even down to the 5" mark IMBY being so. poorly worded perhaps. this is around when i get tired of chasing ghosts most years anyway so it could be that. i do agree on 04/05 esp after this past storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It can work but not pretty coastal crawlers unless things change. I'm really not down on this winter much at all. It's been cold at times and it's snowed a couple times. The early month clipper stuck around on the ground for a week. I have snow on the ground again for a couple days. January has felt and looked like winter. We've had plenty that don't. I would say the next 10 days or so look pretty wintry as well. Just gotta let the chips fall at this point and be thankful for any snow that falls. Pretty amazing bust with the AO this winter. Blindsided. i legitimately measured 4-4.5" in several spots from the january 6 clipper. i classify that as a decent storm. it's all about rates and the type of snow that's falling (that one was good in both ways, though mostly because i lucked out in that band). january 21 was decent too even though it was mostly a white rain. it did stick a lot to trees, etc. monday's event, you could tell we were just getting scraps all day. even when it was snowing decent, it just wasn't a "good" snow. had a very hard time accumulating, for whatever reason. maybe there was some low level warm air somewhere similar to that march event that busted 2 seasons ago (just guessing). it seemed like we needed significant rates on monday and didn't get it. still wintry though. overall, this winter has been ok, though given how chilly it's been for a while now (we haven't really had any kind of a prolonged thaw since november) i think we should have scored a significant, area-wide snow by now. if that happens in the next couple of weeks, i think this winter passes the test at least imby. so far, i'd probably have to give it a C+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 heh I didn't even realize that was there. could be a nightmare.. at least it doesn't have a snow map option. and yes on memorable.. though i was thinking even down to the 5" mark IMBY being so. poorly worded perhaps. this is around when i get tired of chasing ghosts most years anyway so it could be that. i do agree on 04/05 esp after this past storm. It's pretty fun when you have spare time to goof around with. An easy way to do it is select DC region and check out all the members total snowfall through d10. When you see grey then go run the loop of the member. It really looks like we are entering an active wintry period for the next 10 days or so. If we blow it then we're not hitting climo without a mid-late Feb fluke that never happens. At least ensembles are backing off the massive +ao/nao. Still positive on the means but not nearly as gruesome as the last couple days. ETA: we need an area wide warning event that verifies to "get to the next level" of enjoyment. Doesn't have to be huge. Just widespread and decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 California of the East Coast. Don't understand the hating on Cali and Mass. The former is the most important state to the overall economy and the latter is the seat of Liberty. Hating those states means you hate freedomz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 i legitimately measured 4-4.5" in several spots from the january 6 clipper. i classify that as a decent storm. it's all about rates and the type of snow that's falling (that one was good in both ways, though mostly because i lucked out in that band). january 21 was decent too even though it was mostly a white rain. it did stick a lot to trees, etc. monday's event, you could tell we were just getting scraps all day. even when it was snowing decent, it just wasn't a "good" snow. had a very hard time accumulating, for whatever reason. maybe there was some low level warm air somewhere similar to that march event that busted 2 seasons ago (just guessing). it seemed like we needed significant rates on monday and didn't get it. still wintry though. overall, this winter has been ok, though given how chilly it's been for a while now (we haven't really had any kind of a prolonged thaw since november) i think we should have scored a significant, area-wide snow by now. if that happens in the next couple of weeks, i think this winter passes the test at least imby. so far, i'd probably have to give it a C+. Wasn't Dec. around +4F at DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Wasn't Dec. around +4F at DCA? Winchester is -3.9, -3.2, and -1.9 (and probably going ) for Nov-Jan. It hasn't been snowy, but it hasn't been warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Winchester is -3.9, -3.2, and -1.9 (and probably going ) for Nov-Jan. It hasn't been snowy, but it hasn't been warm. There's no way in hell that Winchester was -3.2 in December. You probably meant + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 PG - not a man of his word. Gives me teh sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 putting your neck on the line! Better deliver. If it could deliver a region-wide 3-4" event, it'd be the largest snowfall of the season so far. No pressure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 If it could deliver a region-wide 3-4" event, it'd be the largest snowfall of the season so far. No pressure! good luck. I actually think this is going to get juicer as we get closer to the event. The 700 mb map shows quite a bit of moisture fetch, just need a little bit more lift, just some very minor changes could give us a decent event. Not to mention it could possibly be a high ratio snow, so even .20" liquid could potentially put us in warning criteria range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 There's no way in hell that Winchester was -3.2 in December. You probably meant + They're not my stats. Local online weather station. You can take your issue with his stats up with him. I didn't know you monitored Winchester weather so closely. http://winchesterweather.home.comcast.net/~winchesterweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 They're not my stats. Local online weather station. You can take your issue with his stats up with him. I didn't know you monitored Winchester weather so closely. http://winchesterweather.home.comcast.net/~winchesterweather/ December was a torch across the region, so there's no conceivable way that Winchester finished December 2014 with a -3 departure. Hagerstown and Martinsburg were both in the +4 to +5 range in December, so either you or the person keeping stats made a mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 December was a torch across the region, so there's no conceivable way that Winchester finished December 2014 with a -3 departure. Hagerstown and Martinsburg were both in the +4 to +5 range in December, so either you or the person keeping stats made a mistake. IAD was only +2 in December...50 miles west may have been negative...not so inconceivable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 IAD was only +2 in December...50 miles west may have been negative...not so inconceivable... I checked the link... the mean temp for that station was 38.5 for 12/2014, not too far off Martinsburg (39) and identical to Hagerstown. I don't know what the typical mean temp for December should be but unless it's 41.7, there was no -3.2 departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 good luck. I actually think this is going to get juicer as we get closer to the event. The 700 mb map shows quite a bit of moisture fetch, just need a little bit more lift, just some very minor changes could give us a decent event. Not to mention it could possibly be a high ratio snow, so even .20" liquid could potentially put us in warning criteria range. Yup, I'd take my chances on a lower QPF event with cold temps at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 0z nam is right at the range to toss out an amped solution at the end of the run. Looking forward to it before the gfs serves up the gut punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I checked the link... the mean temp for that station was 38.5 for 12/2014, not too far off Martinsburg (39) and identical to Hagerstown. I don't know what the typical mean temp for December should be but unless it's 41.7, there was no -3.2 departure. There's definitely something fishy there. The stats from 2013 show the Dec norm at 35.5 meaning this years 38.5 would be +3. I'm not sure why that's the case. His stats are automated and computer generated. Oh well, I just was pointing out that the past three months haven't been warm. Even with the error, it's still below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 There's definitely something fishy there. The stats from 2013 show the Dec norm at 35.5 meaning this years 38.5 would be +3. I'm not sure why that's the case. His stats are automated and computer generated. Oh well, I just was pointing out that the past three months haven't been warm. Even with the error, it's still below normal. I think it's a typo... he probably meant to put a + for December rather than -. And I agree, it's been a chilly winter and temp wise, I'm not complaining. I just wish to see something more substantial than 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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