HM Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 My dream of a mass of moisture moving in from the gulf into a cold home of air in a classic over-running event deferred again, apparently. So damn hard to get that set-up in the last several years. I won't lie to you; I have seen better 50-50/-NAO setups. The reality is: thumb ridge projections into Greenland with a clipper bomb being stretched out with the PV west is not ideal. That can easily lose and lead to widespread diffluence. The good news is that there's a boat load of Arctic Air up there and the stratospheric stuff supports that PV coming SE. From that point on, it's about lucky timing. I've said it before: this is not a winter to get cute. And those that have gotten cute have been getting beat up left and right...whether it is in the LR (making bold proclaimations) or SR (predicting record snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 By the way, thanks for the thoughts, HM, much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 NAM extrapolation competition anyone...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Canaan up to 71" on the year. I imagine the higher ridges, dolly sods, etc. are over 80 by now. Even in this "average" winter they should comfortably pass 100". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I missed the Boston total by 0.2" https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/560266472858320896 https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/560454015197401088 #dancing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I missed the Boston total by 0.2" https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/560266472858320896 https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/560454015197401088 #dancing Well done, was their all-time record set? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Well done, was their all-time record set?No, I believe it was like their number 6? 27.1 IIRC is their record from PDII. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Why can't anything be simple around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Well done, was their all-time record set? 6th. Biggest in January. ORH set all time record... which was surprisingly close to what IAD got in Snowmageddon. Interesting there's a general non mtn top end of EC storms regardless of latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 No, I believe it was like their number 6? 27.1 IIRC is their record from PDII. Yup, 27.5"--- it was the lamest all-time record because the airport bullseyed (downtown Boston had less snow), and the 6-hr method yielded a fluffed-up total with the final snow depth much lower. Boston-folk were annoyed it displaced the Blizzard of '78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Why can't anything be simple around here? No meaningful sustained blocking for 4 consecutive winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Yup, 27.5"--- it was the lamest all-time record because the airport bullseyed (downtown Boston had less snow), and the 6-hr method yielded a fluffed-up total with the final snow depth much lower. Boston-folk were annoyed it displaced the Blizzard of '78.Agreed. PDII was much more remembered for what it did in our area than up there. 26.8 at BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Agreed. PDII was much more remembered for what it did in our area than up there. 26.8 at BWI? 28.2 according to the KU book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I missed the Boston total by 0.2" https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/560266472858320896 https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/560454015197401088 #dancing Good job. Will is one lucky sob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 No meaningful sustained blocking for 4 consecutive winters. Hopefully we won't make it five. Scraping around with NAM extrapolations and wishcasting makes people nutty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I missed the Boston total by 0.2" https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/560266472858320896 https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/560454015197401088 #dancing 0.2" over! #StopTheHype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Handy1 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Depressing if true: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/Lundberg/springlike-patt/41354808 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I kinda wonder if this period might be it for winter based on how things move after but we are good at March lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Depressing if true: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/Lundberg/springlike-patt/41354808 Depressing if you love snow and live in the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I kinda wonder if this period might be it for winter based on how things move after but we are good at March lately. I had that thought as well. Ensembles backed off a little in regards to the strong +AO/+NAO combo after Day 10, but still have it, just weaker. I'd like to score in the next 10 days so we're not chasing a "pattern change" on Feb 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Yet another reason why NE is a great place. https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152615100067061 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I had that thought as well. Ensembles backed off a little in regards to the strong +AO/+NAO combo after Day 10, but still have it, just weaker. I'd like to score in the next 10 days so we're not chasing a "pattern change" on Feb 15th. Obviously not set in stone.. patterns become stubborn. Maybe when the -NAO accidentally happens it will decide it likes to be there. But.. I could def see a warm up in Feb.. and it might not be well timed to give us much chance after. We're kinda due for a winter that screeches to a halt in mid-Feb... one that screwed SNE until giving them a big one (and probably several more) seems like a good winter to do it. I said a while back I'd still run to near avg in Jan and also Feb.. probably still feel the same in general. But that could still mean a sub 10" winter at DCA unless something good happens soon IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I kinda wonder if this period might be it for winter based on how things move after but we are good at March lately. PG skunkin you on that bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 PG skunkin you on that bet He took a cheapshot at me, so I think I get a free post. Do have to hand it to PG tho. He's the only person who made a worse bet than Upton on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I had that thought as well. Ensembles backed off a little in regards to the strong +AO/+NAO combo after Day 10, but still have it, just weaker. I'd like to score in the next 10 days so we're not chasing a "pattern change" on Feb 15th. Maybe not Feb 15, but by Feb 25 I'm chasing a pattern change...to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 He took a cheapshot at me, so I think I get a free post. i knew you'd welsh on your bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 PG skunkin you on that bet did anyone actually think he'd follow through and ban himself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I had that thought as well. Ensembles backed off a little in regards to the strong +AO/+NAO combo after Day 10, but still have it, just weaker. I'd like to score in the next 10 days so we're not chasing a "pattern change" on Feb 15th. Luckily the pac seems cooperative for the foreseeable future. But relying solely for the entire month of Feb isn't going to work out too well. We aren't getting the promised -ao. I'm fairly confident that Feb won't magically flip in that department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I have a bad feeling that we're gonna get a setup that looks like Feb 2010.... in early to mid April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The debacle last weekend has left me wholly incapable of showing any emotion for a model run or group of runs. It's time for winter to quit the games and put up or gtfo. I feel the same way. Luckily the pac seems cooperative for the foreseeable future. But relying solely for the entire month of Feb isn't going to work out too well. We aren't getting the promised -ao. I'm fairly confident that Feb won't magically flip in that department. A part of me wants to think that sounds like the pattern we had for much of last winter, but the realistic side thinks it's not going to work out this time without a block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.