Ian Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I thought you guys would appreciate this story on nbcnews.com right now - on the home page - on why weather forecasts go wrong: http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/snow-letdown-how-do-weather-forecasts-go-wrong-n294426 My problem with the argument is that media could do a better job just presenting the facts of each model and the spread between them - instead of broadcasting the ultimate conclusion. However, as members of this board we know the model variations, and the public wants the bottom line. If the truth is that we do not know which model is right, say so. Explain the 50 mile shift possibility and diameter of the storm concept, i.e., variations on how tightly it is wrapped up can be unpredictable. This was not the first Nor'Easter we know about these variations and possibilities. Explain it to the public better than "it will be 2-3 feet - the worst of all time". Mt Holly and Upton did a terrible job in the forecast progression but the media is largely to blame for the hypestorm that followed. Of course the media will always examine other people who messed up and never look at themselves. It's kind of disgusting really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It definitely is time to punt winter. I didn't even get 1 inch this winter. Without blocking I have no chance at the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Out of curiosity, what is your average and how often do you reach it? It definitely is time to punt winter. I didn't even get 1 inch this winter. Without blocking I have no chance at the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Out of curiosity, what is your average and how often do you reach it?Our long term average is right around 11 inches per year. Lately it seems it's either gangbusters or nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Snow makes people crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Snow makes people crazy.True that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The GFS sucked me back in. Here we go again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Thread for the next threat should be 72 out. We don't want to juju our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Picture of some of the folks from the Philly/NYC forums at ECWMF headquarters today. article-0-0C011EC4000005DC-206_634x440.jpg well played Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 With the new Euro showing three potential snow threats WE MUST PUSH FORWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If we didn't just see a storm totally evolve in three days the GFS excitement might make more sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishStorm Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 So I've been reading this stuff for a while, not just in the winter, and I feel like I have learned a lot. I'm obviously nowhere near as knowledgeable about this stuff as a lot of you but I feel like I know enough that I can contribute. I want to keep learning, and I feel like engaging will help with that. If you guys don't want me here, just give me the boot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishStorm Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If we didn't just see a storm totally evolve in three days the GFS excitement might make more sense that's what I just told my friend who sent me the happy hour snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I thought you guys would appreciate this story on nbcnews.com right now - on the home page - on why weather forecasts go wrong: http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/snow-letdown-how-do-weather-forecasts-go-wrong-n294426 My problem with the argument is that media could do a better job just presenting the facts of each model and the spread between them - instead of broadcasting the ultimate conclusion. However, as members of this board we know the model variations, and the public wants the bottom line. If the truth is that we do not know which model is right, say so. Explain the 50 mile shift possibility and diameter of the storm concept, i.e., variations on how tightly it is wrapped up can be unpredictable. This was not the first Nor'Easter we know about these variations and possibilities. Explain it to the public better than "it will be 2-3 feet - the worst of all time". I'd say the problem with mentioning the models specifically to the public is that they would become even more insufferable with their "the euro nailed sandy" babbleSent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 So I've been reading this stuff for a while, not just in the winter, and I feel like I have learned a lot. I'm obviously nowhere near as knowledgeable about this stuff as a lot of you but I feel like I know enough that I can contribute. I want to keep learning, and I feel like engaging will help with that. If you guys don't want me here, just give me the boot right now. Welcome! I've learned a lot reading what the experts here post but I also learn by analyzing the maps and contributing where I can. Pull up a chair and hopefully 0z continues the 18z happy hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 So I've been reading this stuff for a while, not just in the winter, and I feel like I have learned a lot. I'm obviously nowhere near as knowledgeable about this stuff as a lot of you but I feel like I know enough that I can contribute. I want to keep learning, and I feel like engaging will help with that. If you guys don't want me here, just give me the boot right now. Gtfu and stay off my lawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Taken down a peg. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm retiring after this winter....I'm done...this is my last season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm retiring after this winter....I'm done...this is my last season You're checking into Betty Ford? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm not sure I like winter anymore....give me a minute...I need some time alone....DONT TOUCH ME!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm not sure I like winter anymore....give me a minute...I need some time alone....DONT TOUCH ME!!!But were about to get the biggest blizzard in HISTORY lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm not sure I like winter anymore....give me a minute...I need some time alone....DONT TOUCH ME!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm retiring after this winter....I'm done...this is my last season My god man. You have become Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 We've gone over to militant snow tracking. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 We are much like Sith lords at this point, feeling the anger flow, it's a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 HM's scenario where we are battling another jumper is fueling my weenie rage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 HM's scenario where we are battling another jumper is fueling my weenie rage. If you halt the inverted trough across the OH/TN Valley and it jumps to DELMARVA, VA Capes, then it will be all snow. Doesn't mean we're out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 If you halt the inverted trough across the OH/TN Valley and it jumps to DELMARVA, VA Capes, then it will be all snow. Doesn't mean we're out... I know, HM. Will hold that thought, as hard as possible - just that I know the score on those scenarios down here as well as any. Maybe this time, if it goes down like this, we can hold snow rather than quick burst to dry slot to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I know, HM. Will hold that thought, as hard as possible - just that I know the score on those scenarios down here as well as any. Maybe this time, if it goes down like this, we can hold snow rather than quick burst to dry slot to rain. Good thing we are at climo peak in a winter where waves trend progressive. We have a shot here to get thumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Good thing we are at climo peak in a winter where waves trend progressive. We have a shot here to get thumped. My dream of a mass of moisture moving in from the gulf into a cold dome of air in a classic over-running event deferred again, apparently. So damn hard to get that set-up in the last several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.