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January Banter Thread


H2O

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I thought you guys would appreciate this story on nbcnews.com right now - on the home page - on why weather forecasts go wrong:

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/snow-letdown-how-do-weather-forecasts-go-wrong-n294426

 

My problem with the argument is that media could do a better job just presenting the facts of each model and the spread between them - instead of broadcasting the ultimate conclusion.  However, as members of this board we know the model variations, and the public wants the bottom line.  If the truth is that we do not know which model is right, say so.  Explain the 50 mile shift possibility and diameter of the storm concept, i.e., variations on how tightly it is wrapped up can be unpredictable.  This was not the first Nor'Easter we know about these variations and possibilities.  Explain it to the public better than "it will be 2-3 feet - the worst of all time".  

Mt Holly and Upton did a terrible job in the forecast progression but the media is largely to blame for the hypestorm that followed. Of course the media will always examine other people who messed up and never look at themselves. It's kind of disgusting really. 

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So I've been reading this stuff for a while, not just in the winter, and I feel like I have learned a lot.  I'm obviously nowhere near as knowledgeable about this stuff as a lot of you but I feel like I know enough that I can contribute.  I want to keep learning, and I feel like engaging will help with that.  If you guys don't want me here, just give me the boot right now.

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I thought you guys would appreciate this story on nbcnews.com right now - on the home page - on why weather forecasts go wrong:

http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/snow-letdown-how-do-weather-forecasts-go-wrong-n294426

My problem with the argument is that media could do a better job just presenting the facts of each model and the spread between them - instead of broadcasting the ultimate conclusion. However, as members of this board we know the model variations, and the public wants the bottom line. If the truth is that we do not know which model is right, say so. Explain the 50 mile shift possibility and diameter of the storm concept, i.e., variations on how tightly it is wrapped up can be unpredictable. This was not the first Nor'Easter we know about these variations and possibilities. Explain it to the public better than "it will be 2-3 feet - the worst of all time".

I'd say the problem with mentioning the models specifically to the public is that they would become even more insufferable with their "the euro nailed sandy" babble

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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So I've been reading this stuff for a while, not just in the winter, and I feel like I have learned a lot.  I'm obviously nowhere near as knowledgeable about this stuff as a lot of you but I feel like I know enough that I can contribute.  I want to keep learning, and I feel like engaging will help with that.  If you guys don't want me here, just give me the boot right now.

 

Welcome!  I've learned a lot reading what the experts here post but I also learn by analyzing the maps and contributing where I can.  Pull up a chair and hopefully 0z continues the 18z happy hour.

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So I've been reading this stuff for a while, not just in the winter, and I feel like I have learned a lot. I'm obviously nowhere near as knowledgeable about this stuff as a lot of you but I feel like I know enough that I can contribute. I want to keep learning, and I feel like engaging will help with that. If you guys don't want me here, just give me the boot right now.

Gtfu and stay off my lawn

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HM's scenario where we are battling another jumper is fueling my weenie rage.

If you halt the inverted trough across the OH/TN Valley and it jumps to DELMARVA, VA Capes, then it will be all snow. Doesn't mean we're out...

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If you halt the inverted trough across the OH/TN Valley and it jumps to DELMARVA, VA Capes, then it will be all snow. Doesn't mean we're out...

 

I know, HM. Will hold that thought, as hard as possible - just that I know the score on those scenarios down here as well as any. Maybe this time, if it goes down like this, we can hold snow rather than quick burst to dry slot to rain.

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I know, HM. Will hold that thought, as hard as possible - just that I know the score on those scenarios down here as well as any. Maybe this time, if it goes down like this, we can hold snow rather than quick burst to dry slot to rain.

Good thing we are at climo peak in a winter where waves trend progressive. We have a shot here to get thumped.

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