Zelocita Weather Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 12Z RGEM and NAM both show a sneaky lead wave of precip that could be dangerous for anyone going all liquid for the coast...the NAM hints at it blossoming an area of precip at 48 hours down in the MD and VA area...the RGEM is more noticeable with it at 48 hours almost into PHL already...I cannot tell what is generating it..may be pure overrunning or jet streak based because nothing showing at 500mb. Would it be snow or ice/sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Would it be snow or ice/sleet? GFS says all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The GFS does not have any advanced overrunning, we'll see in the next day or so if the RGEM is onto something with that, if it is we could see several hours of snow in the morning and early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Blueprint for a Great Lakes Cutter guidance tutorial for online products and how they tie in (relate) to this system If this helps just one of the crew here, my work has been worth it dm guest view please join the madness http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b368/Doorman_/cut-track_zpsxdfalt4r.gif upton http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 00z GFS is definitely colder, looks like a inch or 2 for newark west. NYC gets null. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 00z GFS is definitely colder, looks like a inch or 2 for newark west. NYC gets null. The RGEM is still somewhat early on the precip...it has NYC rain but I don't know about that, colder ocean temps now, an east wind won't warm the BL that fast...if this comes in at 16Z NYC will see 3-4 hours of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 Gfs looks good for an inch or so for most... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Does the RGEM still bring in precip mid morning ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Does the RGEM still bring in precip mid morning ? More or less 16z, the NWS Upton has a rain snow mix at LGA 16-22z so they definitely are seeing the potential of frozen precip for several hours, my feeling is if will either be all frozen or mostly liquid in the 17-21z period, it all depends how heavy the leading edge of the precip is, if it's got moderate or heavy bands we could see a quick inch of two surprise. A similar system surprised us in 12-13, most everyone went all rain and NYC and LGA got a quick 1-2 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Nam looks like 1"+ snow for most... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Nam looks good gives most of the sub-forum 1"+ more as you go west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Nam looks like 1"+ snow for most...Looks to me like maybe a dusting for some of us in NE NJ and northern portions of the NYC area with no accumulation for many.....1"+ as you head into western suburbs and 2-3" for those higher elevations like West Milford. Quickly transitions to plain rain though. A coating is possible for a couple hours, but I'm skeptical of even that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Gfs actually shows a burst of precip for n nj which has about .25" equiv as snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Gfs actually shows a burst of precip for n nj which has about .25" equiv as snow...Taken verbatim, the 00z GFS shows no snow accumulation for anywhere east of NYC...maybe up to a dusting for NYC and nearby western suburbs and an inch from 287 and west. Only high point, NJ receives 0.25" as frozen. NE/NYC receives between 0.01 and 0.05" frozen. Again, hopefully this is wrong, but this is what it shows. It cut back from 18z for us. "On to the next" will be our chant this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The NAM is truly a washout for NNJ/NYC with around 2" of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Um...snow should b starting for most in c/n nj within an hour or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Um...snow should b starting for most in c/n nj within an hour or so... Looks like it might be just a little too warm for NE NJ and east central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The temperature right now is just ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Temp is 37 here. Was 30 at 9am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Snowing at a good clip now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Temperature is actually dropping now. Snowing looks steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Few flurries now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Snowing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Had 3 snowflakes then went to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Managed a coating here but now mostly melting on contact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Light/moderate snow with large flakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Large flakes, sticking to cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Was snowing here for a brief time but nothing stuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Light coating on colder surfaces now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Light snow. Secondary roads covered in Chester, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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