Zelocita Weather Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 EURO, GFS, GGEM all now agree on a initial storm working into the great lakes, but will a pulse of energy ejecting prior and running into an existing cold airmass. Models disagree of course on exact details. But chances are increasing for some wintry precip at least in some areas on the front end of the system, with a change to rain for most. GFS looks the coldest, EURO in the middle, with GGEM the warmest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I'm really interested to see what the 12z ECMWF ensembles show. So far most of the ensmble guidance has been on the weaker/flatter side. As previously mentioned the all important northern stream features are still over Siberia in a poorly sampled region. Theoretically we could still see some major changes until all the pieces are on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The 12z EPS ensemble mean is much flatter than any of the operational guidance today. The mean sends a weak surface reflection to Wisconsin. It has a really nice look for the region just to our North. Unfortunatly it's still too warm for most of this region outside of a quick front end dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The 12z EPS ensemble mean is much flatter than any of the operational guidance today. The mean sends a weak surface reflection to Wisconsin. It has a really nice look for the region just to our North. Unfortunatly it's still too warm for most of this region outside of a quick front end dump. Yeah the euro performs miserably thermally on SWFEs with a high in place, remember the December event last year where it busted by 12 degrees 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 More of the EPS ensemble members develop a defined surface low south of LI this run, so that's a slight improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Most of the members are N and the few that secondary are too late for the city and immediate coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 18z GFS, gives a front end Dump for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 18z GFS, gives a front end Dump for most of the area.It's a lot warmer than previous runs. With the 18z PGFS holding serve, starting to get a concensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 18z GFS, gives a front end Dump for most of the area. Looks like very little snow for most of the area. Far NW maybe start getting a few inches or so, but at the coast it doesn't even give an inch for the NYC or even close western suburbs. Again, this is just the model taken verbatim. The following storm, however, looks like a better bet for snow. But we've learned now to take them as they come. A few days ago, it showed 6"+ snow for us as well. All in all, it's better to be in this type of active pattern than a boring one. The cold is marginal, yes, but we don't need frigid air for something to work out Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 00z gives a front end dump. It's been very consistent today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 00z gives a front end dump. It's been very consistent today. It was a hair less phased this run and colder...the high keeps getting stronger on each run as well as the cold air...this run is probably 2 inches of snow near the city before it changes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 00z gives a front end dump. It's been very consistent today.It definitely upped it a little bit from 18z. While the parallel gives us absolutely nothing except maybe a few flakes to start, the GFS gives an inch of snow for NE NJ and more as you head into NJ outside of the urban areas (1-3"). For NW NJ, maybe 5-7". Quite honestly, I wouldn't count on anything though other than a drenching rain. Any little coating of snow will be gone quickly, as 1-2" of rain could fall for many areas. More importantly, though, the GFS does look fantastic through the end of its run. We could squeeze out a good deal of snow despite having the perfect pattern in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It definitely upped it a little bit from 18z. While the parallel gives us absolutely nothing except maybe a few flakes to start, the GFS gives an inch of snow for NE NJ and more as you head into NJ outside of the urban areas (1-3"). For NW NJ, maybe 5-7". Quite honestly, I wouldn't count on anything though other than a drenching rain. Any little coating of snow will be gone quickly, as 1-2" of rain could fall for many areas. More importantly, though, the GFS does look fantastic through the end of its run. We could squeeze out a good deal of snow despite having the perfect pattern in place I wouln't get overly excited about anything good past hour 168 or so. Model skill obviously is poor beyond that range and also the GFS has a known cold bias when its resolution becomes coarse post hr 192. I forget exactly why, SnowGoose probably knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 6z also gives a few inches at the onset... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 12z GFS shuts out all of LI for any winter precip. Enjoy the new year folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 12z GFS shuts out all of LI for any winter precip. Enjoy the new year folks This run is warmer for a lot of people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 This run is warmer for a lot of people gfs says what front end snow. everyone quickly goes over to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 60s Sunday? What happened to the epo ridge pumping down cold arctic air via a cpf that guidance had been showing for this period? Sheesh, lr guidance has been nearly the complete opposite of apparent weather verification the past few weeks. Maybe instead of this upcoming thaw we will get a decent pattern for winter weather lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 This run is warmer for a lot of peopleIts warmer by several degrees for Sunday, DC is hitting 65 when the previous Atari's never showed them getting pass 57. NYC hits the upper 50s. Baltimore to Boston get 1-2" of rain, Long Island gets 2-3" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 60s Sunday? What happened to the epo ridge pumping down cold arctic air via a cpf that guidance had been showing for this period? Sheesh, lr guidance has been nearly the complete opposite of apparent weather verification the past few weeks. Maybe instead of this upcoming thaw we will get a decent pattern for winter weather lol. Ralph at 102 850`s go plus 10 at 120 850`s are minus 10 . So it`s cold before and after , that was written here . This is not news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 gfs says what front end snow. everyone quickly goes over to rain no snow on the ground ahead of time will allow the warmer air to surge north IMO-bare ground all the way to Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 no snow on the ground ahead of time will allow the warmer air to surge north IMO-bare ground all the way to Maine Has much more to do with the stronger low level jet out ahead of the cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Deja vu back to the 1980's. Cold, warm up & rain, then cold again. We survived it then, well survive it now. For those too young to remember that period, you might want to consider hibernating, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Deja vu back to the 1980's. Cold, warm up & rain, then cold again. We survived it then, well survive it now. For those too young to remember that period, you might want to consider hibernating, lol.I don't think today's weenies would survive a stretch like that again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I don't think today's weenies would survive a stretch like that again Thus my suggestion of hibernation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Thus my suggestion of hibernation...Yea, that wouldn't be enough. Perhaps another hobby for them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I don't think today's weenies would survive a stretch like that again Now this storm went from at least some snow to no snow. I don't recall exactly what winter it was, I think it was 2009 or 08, we had very cold dry days, and then rain, back to freezing temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I agree with IrishRob 17 they should definitely find a new hobby they won't make thru a winter like we had in the 80's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The 80's at least had the 83 beauty. The daughter my 1st was born was in 2002 & that winter 2001-2002 I believe we saw a toal of 3 inches. It happens. we have been spoiled & I think came into this winter with extremely high expectations, based on long term forcasts. But LR 4casts are nowhere near dependable and so ocassionally we take one to the chin. The fact is to get major snow in here we need the table set perfectly on the coastal plain. We arent down lake and we arent up a mountain and we arent in land so lets be realistic, continue to learn & hope for the best. Above all, happy new year to all . may it be a healthy one because . in the end, thats what matters, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 12Z RGEM and NAM both show a sneaky lead wave of precip that could be dangerous for anyone going all liquid for the coast...the NAM hints at it blossoming an area of precip at 48 hours down in the MD and VA area...the RGEM is more noticeable with it at 48 hours almost into PHL already...I cannot tell what is generating it..may be pure overrunning or jet streak based because nothing showing at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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