2015 Global Temperatures

[chubbs]

Below is a graph from NOAA site showing March through February 12-month average temperatures. Now that the relatively cool Feb 2014 has been dropped, 12-month average global temperatures have separated from prior peaks.  Also note that the long-term trend over the past 40 years is not impacted much by the hiatus. It was a little warmer than trend at the beginning of the hiatus and a little cooler than trend at the end.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

Good news is global SSTs have come down a good bit since the beginning of the year.

New Years Day:

Now:

[The_Global_Warmer]

**** is hitting the fan now. 

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

**** is hitting the fan now. 

 

 

 

 

hmmm...how soon before we start seeing headlines of "Global warming to cause hurricanes in California" 

[LakeEffectKing]

hmmm...how soon before we start seeing headlines of "Global warming to cause hurricanes in California"

2.5 degree anomaly off the California coast is not even close to what would be needed to "cause hurricanes in California"...nor is 3.0, nor 3.5, nor 4.0, nor 4.5, nor 5.0....etc...

[AvantHiatus]

2.5 degree anomaly off the California coast is not even close to what would be needed to "cause hurricanes in California"...nor is 3.0, nor 3.5, nor 4.0, nor 4.5, nor 5.0....etc...

Would be more impressive to see those anomalies in July. That is just small town stuff, in terms of marine instability.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

The warm waters are surfacing over ENSO 1-2.

 

ENSO 3 has been back and forth. 

 

 

The Southern Hemisphere oceans are wall to wall warm.

 

The largest cool spot NW of Hawaii in years over the NPAC?

 

 

 

March is about to come in around 0.80C+ on GISS.  This means threw March GISS will be averaging a 0.78C+ for 2015.  The 2014 record is 0.67C+.

 

The 2014 record is going to be obliterated.

 

[AvantHiatus]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=T2m&runtime=2015032600&fh=384&xpos=0&ypos=109.09090672642736

 

Good luck with that.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Wow.

 

1.  A legit "cold" pool over the NPAC.  That has been so rare the last few years.

 

too bad...

 

2.  It's surrounded by a much more powerful torch to it's East NE, SE, and S.

 

Then there is everywhere else.

 

3.  Western South America.  Enough said.

 

4.  Umm the Western Atlantic, carribean, and GOM are toasty.

 

 

5.  The Southern Hemisphere is yeah on fire.

 

 

 

 

[AvantHiatus]

The coming snow-cover decline is going to kill the global albedo forcing and set off some crazy stuff, at least for this early into Spring. This would be in addition to whatever caused the snow-cover decline initially. 

 

[Msalgado]

The coming snow-cover decline is going to kill the global albedo forcing and set off some crazy stuff, at least for this early into Spring. This would be in addition to whatever caused the snow-cover decline initially. 

 

 

Stop posting things like this, please.  Snow cover is a small portion of the surface area and it won't "kill" the albedo.  You have no documentation to back up that this will have a large change on the radiative budget of the earth in the short term.  Hyperbole with no backing really has zero place in a science forum.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

2.5 degree anomaly off the California coast is not even close to what would be needed to "cause hurricanes in California"...nor is 3.0, nor 3.5, nor 4.0, nor 4.5, nor 5.0....etc...

 

 

I'm talking about canes heading into the area from the ICCZ.     Will at-least help sustain slightly better.  

 

But for the most part, I was being highly sarcastic.

 

what  is going on with the SST anomalies there though...quite odd.  maybe fukashima related. 

[AvantHiatus]

Stop posting things like this, please.  Snow cover is a small portion of the surface area and it won't "kill" the albedo.  You have no documentation to back up that this will have a large change on the radiative budget of the earth in the short term.  Hyperbole with no backing really has zero place in a science forum.

You sound paranoid. It is what it is man. You don't have to read my posts. Yes, we are nearing tipping points, specifics are still unknowable. Tipping points can be minor or severe, so it should not come across as 'doomer' talk.

 

The ridiculously resilient ridge is the forcing action behind the SSTA. The new normal is to torch like crazy without clouds.

[nflwxman]

You sound paranoid. It is what it is man. You don't have to read my posts. Yes, we are nearing tipping points, specifics are still unknowable. Tipping points can be minor or severe, so it should not come across as 'doomer' talk.

 

The ridiculously resilient ridge is the forcing action behind the SSTA. The new normal is to torch like crazy without clouds.

Anybody can post anything related to the topic, but speculation like the above mentioned above probably won't go over well.  As skier and many others have posted, land cover snow albedo is a very very small feedback that adds fractions of a Watt/m^2 to the global temperature forcing picture.  Sea Ice albedo is a bit larger of a forcing but still marginal in the overall scheme of things.  If anything, snow cover albedo is much more a regional issue than a global one.

[AvantHiatus]

Anybody can post anything related to the topic, but speculation like the above mentioned above probably won't go over well.  As skier and many others have posted, land cover snow albedo is a very very small feedback that adds fractions of a Watt/m^2 to the global temperature forcing picture.  Sea Ice albedo is a bit larger of a forcing but still marginal in the overall scheme of things.  If anything, snow cover albedo is much more a regional issue than a global one.

Point taken. Losing the Eastern Canadian snowpack would be a huge blow tho and affect global temperatures more than usual since the rest of the world is already torching and Eastern North America is holding down the average. Luckily this does not look to happen as quickly as the Eurasian side.

 

Like everything with climate, it has to be placed in context and analyzed piece by piece.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

Anybody can post anything related to the topic, but speculation like the above mentioned above probably won't go over well. 

 

 

The evidence is increasing that dramatic warming is occuring.  Last year it was mostly just Global_Warmer that was the 'over-the-top' type guy....and he was downplayed and ridiculed for most of the year.  This year it seems like Weatherguy and Myself have been added to the mix. (did I forget anybody?)

 

It's funny how you guys (not u really...but the other guys) paint us as the 'crazies' , just because were telling the truth about what's currently going on.   Factual satellite data / current models are hard to argue against. 

 

But see'ing how strongly the deny'ers are, it's likely they'll still be in denial (and acting like were the crazy liberals) until sea levels rise at-least 10 feet. 

[ORH_wxman]

The evidence is increasing that dramatic warming is occuring. Last year it was mostly just Global_Warmer that was the 'over-the-top' type guy....and he was downplayed and ridiculed for most of the year. This year it seems like Weatherguy and Myself have been added to the mix. (did I forget anybody?)

It's funny how you guys (not u really...but the other guys) paint us as the 'crazies' , just because were telling the truth about what's currently going on. Factual satellite data / current models are hard to argue against.

But see'ing how strongly the deny'ers are, it's likely they'll still be in denial (and acting like were the crazy liberals) until sea levels rise at-least 10 feet.

No, y'all get criticized when you post non-scientific content. Or stuff that is pure conjecture.

Both deniers and alarmists do it. And both are criticized. Not sure why that is hard to fathom. If you are going to make outlandish claims such as a bit of Eurasian snow cover having a large impact on global temperatures, then back it up because as of right now, it doesn't have a lot of scientific support. We've done the hard math in here previously...and it's been done in papers. Making a claim like that is no different than someone claiming GHGs don't warm the atmosphere. Basically...prove it.

[AvantHiatus]

Nobody likes being right for the wrong reasons.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

No, y'all get criticized when you post non-scientific content. Or stuff that is pure conjecture.

 

 

 

I hear ya....i've got my hands full in the OT section. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Weatherguy that is a lot of conjecture and assumptions.

 

Even under ideal conditions the top ocean layer (0-100M) the surface(rock, ice, dirt, snow, permafrost can only change so much so fast and hold a certain amount of heat and certain albedo.

 

There is also feedback that come into play to level things out.

 

In Eurasia Spring keeps starting earlier and earlier with the snow cover vanishing earlier and things greening up earlier but also drying out earlier.

 

And the result has been unprecedented forest fires blanketing areas larger then the United States in soot and smoke lowering albedo.

 

Also once things dry out.  Especially over the shrubbery regions and any grasslands the vegetation going from green(low albedo) to dead or light brownish(higher albedo) is another feedback.

 

 

The one scenario that could have a small impact in global temps over a short period would be a march 2012 situation in April over Eurasia. 

 

A persistent enough heat pump/ridges(sun) from now threw April from Eastern Euro threw the Western 1/2 of Russia up into the arctic circle could cause an unprecedented early season melt off.

 

 

You can see the Valley South of the Kara sea normally has snow cover well into mid to late May.

 

 

 

 

 

 

April 5th:

 

 

 

April 15h:

 

 

May 15th:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

The Western side of the divide is running well below normal and given the current weather forecast is likely to have a very very early season melt out.

 

The Western side is higher in elevation running 1000-1500FT.  The valley where the snow is above normal is closer to sea level. 

 

I am guessing cold air damming takes place with cold arctic air funneling in off the Kara down into the valley between the Western ridge and Eastern Mountains. 

 

 

 

 

 

The upcoming weather pattern is just brutal as hell for Western Eurasia snow pack.

 

By day 3 the deep cold is pushed out.  By day 4 the  WSW flow has taken over.

 

 

 

By day 5 the ridge has slide far enough East and South that a nasty WSW flow.  Deep fetch is raging into the region. 

 

 

 

 

 

By day 6 the flow turns more SW.  Big torch.

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

By day 7 it's straight huge torch. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is just for fun.  But on day 9-10 the euro has massive ridging over Eurasia.  By April 5th the sun is pumping out between 250-300w/m2 a day up there. 

 

That is plenty strong to get big melt going with a Southerly or WSW flow.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

I find the current UAH temp situation interesting.

 

In bold is the tropical temps for Jan and Feb of 2015.  Both way below the monthly average thanks to the NH torching.

 

But 0.325C+ two month average is a big time start.

 

March is likely to come in around .0.35C+ or so. 

 

With the tropics blowing up 2015 on UAH could liikely see monthlies from 0.30C upwards of 0.60 maybe even higher for every month.

 

Probably won't be a 1998 like quick peak.  More like a steady torch all year.

 

 

 

The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 14 months are:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2014 01 +0.291 +0.387 +0.194 -0.029
2014 02 +0.170 +0.320 +0.020 -0.103
2014 03 +0.170 +0.338 +0.002 -0.001
2014 04 +0.190 +0.358 +0.022 +0.092
2014 05 +0.326 +0.325 +0.328 +0.175
2014 06 +0.305 +0.315 +0.295 +0.510
2014 07 +0.304 +0.289 +0.319 +0.451
2014 08 +0.199 +0.244 +0.153 +0.061
2014 09 +0.294 +0.187 +0.401 +0.181
2014 10 +0.365 +0.333 +0.396 +0.189
2014 11 +0.329 +0.354 +0.303 +0.247
2014 12 +0.322 +0.465 +0.178 +0.296
2015 01 +0.351 +0.553 +0.150 +0.126
2015 02 +0.296 +0.434 +0.157 +0.015

 

 

 

 

 

It's also warminista party time!!!!

 

And the sub-surface is loaded with heat.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Is there ever anomalous Westerlies over central and Eastern ENSO 3? 

 

Iv'e been tracking this for a little over two years and I can't recall them ever being at the level right over the middle of ENSO 3 like they are ENSO 4 a lot. 

 

Is that the missing piece to a decent Nino breaking out?

 

Even without them the sub-surface water with the ENSO 4 anomalous winds is still hauling as to the East and getting warmer

 

 

[AvantHiatus]

There was a recent study that debunked UAH. It has a modest cold bias, take a look for yourself.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/mar/25/one-satellite-data-set-is-underestimating-global-warming

 

Removing Diurnal Cycle Contamination in Satellite-Derived Tropospheric Temperatures: Understanding Tropical Tropospheric Trend Discrepancies

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00767.1

[Msalgado]

You sound paranoid. It is what it is man. You don't have to read my posts. Yes, we are nearing tipping points, specifics are still unknowable. Tipping points can be minor or severe, so it should not come across as 'doomer' talk.

 

The ridiculously resilient ridge is the forcing action behind the SSTA. The new normal is to torch like crazy without clouds.

 

Quite frankly, I'm not sure how I sound paranoid but I don't really care, either.  I ask that you only stick to the science as this is a scientific forum and almost everything you say is sensationalized and much of it is just flat out wrong.  I can't control what you post, but you should understand how you come off.  

 

Do what you wish, but expect to have your unscientific posts called out.

[icebreaker5221]

Is there ever anomalous Westerlies over central and Eastern ENSO 3? 

 

Iv'e been tracking this for a little over two years and I can't recall them ever being at the level right over the middle of ENSO 3 like they are ENSO 4 a lot. 

 

Is that the missing piece to a decent Nino breaking out?

 

Even without them the sub-surface water with the ENSO 4 anomalous winds is still hauling as to the East and getting warmer

 

Overall, the strongest WWBs over Nino 3 are quite a bit weaker (about a factor of 2) than the strongest WWBs over Nino 4.  When Nino 3 DOES come alive and for an extended period of time, it's usually associated with a strong El Nino.  Some moderate Ninos had a pretty weak signal from Nino 3 zonal wind anomalies. 

 

Nino 3:

 

Nino 4:

[The_Global_Warmer]

Overall, the strongest WWBs over Nino 3 are quite a bit weaker (about a factor of 2) than the strongest WWBs over Nino 4.  When Nino 3 DOES come alive and for an extended period of time, it's usually associated with a strong El Nino.  Some moderate Ninos had a pretty weak signal from Nino 3 zonal wind anomalies. 

 

Nino 3:

Nino 4:

 

 

 

Thanks for the info.  I really appreciate it.

[LakeEffectKing]

Is there ever anomalous Westerlies over central and Eastern ENSO 3? 

 

Iv'e been tracking this for a little over two years and I can't recall them ever being at the level right over the middle of ENSO 3 like they are ENSO 4 a lot. 

 

Is that the missing piece to a decent Nino breaking out?

 

Even without them the sub-surface water with the ENSO 4 anomalous winds is still hauling as to the East and getting warmer

 

 

According to my untrained eye, the subsurface is indeed NOT warming, as you claim (in bold above.) (Below is from your post on the 21st.)

[The_Global_Warmer]

It's still growing.  Those are two different sources.  the CPC sub-surface OHC is still rising and is quite high again.