chubbs Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Below is a graph from NOAA site showing March through February 12-month average temperatures. Now that the relatively cool Feb 2014 has been dropped, 12-month average global temperatures have separated from prior peaks. Also note that the long-term trend over the past 40 years is not impacted much by the hiatus. It was a little warmer than trend at the beginning of the hiatus and a little cooler than trend at the end. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Good news is global SSTs have come down a good bit since the beginning of the year. New Years Day: Now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 **** is hitting the fan now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 **** is hitting the fan now. hmmm...how soon before we start seeing headlines of "Global warming to cause hurricanes in California" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 hmmm...how soon before we start seeing headlines of "Global warming to cause hurricanes in California"2.5 degree anomaly off the California coast is not even close to what would be needed to "cause hurricanes in California"...nor is 3.0, nor 3.5, nor 4.0, nor 4.5, nor 5.0....etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 2.5 degree anomaly off the California coast is not even close to what would be needed to "cause hurricanes in California"...nor is 3.0, nor 3.5, nor 4.0, nor 4.5, nor 5.0....etc... Would be more impressive to see those anomalies in July. That is just small town stuff, in terms of marine instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 The warm waters are surfacing over ENSO 1-2. ENSO 3 has been back and forth. The Southern Hemisphere oceans are wall to wall warm. The largest cool spot NW of Hawaii in years over the NPAC? March is about to come in around 0.80C+ on GISS. This means threw March GISS will be averaging a 0.78C+ for 2015. The 2014 record is 0.67C+. The 2014 record is going to be obliterated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nhem&pkg=T2m&runtime=2015032600&fh=384&xpos=0&ypos=109.09090672642736 Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Wow. 1. A legit "cold" pool over the NPAC. That has been so rare the last few years. too bad... 2. It's surrounded by a much more powerful torch to it's East NE, SE, and S. Then there is everywhere else. 3. Western South America. Enough said. 4. Umm the Western Atlantic, carribean, and GOM are toasty. 5. The Southern Hemisphere is yeah on fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 The coming snow-cover decline is going to kill the global albedo forcing and set off some crazy stuff, at least for this early into Spring. This would be in addition to whatever caused the snow-cover decline initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 The coming snow-cover decline is going to kill the global albedo forcing and set off some crazy stuff, at least for this early into Spring. This would be in addition to whatever caused the snow-cover decline initially. Stop posting things like this, please. Snow cover is a small portion of the surface area and it won't "kill" the albedo. You have no documentation to back up that this will have a large change on the radiative budget of the earth in the short term. Hyperbole with no backing really has zero place in a science forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 2.5 degree anomaly off the California coast is not even close to what would be needed to "cause hurricanes in California"...nor is 3.0, nor 3.5, nor 4.0, nor 4.5, nor 5.0....etc... I'm talking about canes heading into the area from the ICCZ. Will at-least help sustain slightly better. But for the most part, I was being highly sarcastic. what is going on with the SST anomalies there though...quite odd. maybe fukashima related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Stop posting things like this, please. Snow cover is a small portion of the surface area and it won't "kill" the albedo. You have no documentation to back up that this will have a large change on the radiative budget of the earth in the short term. Hyperbole with no backing really has zero place in a science forum. You sound paranoid. It is what it is man. You don't have to read my posts. Yes, we are nearing tipping points, specifics are still unknowable. Tipping points can be minor or severe, so it should not come across as 'doomer' talk. The ridiculously resilient ridge is the forcing action behind the SSTA. The new normal is to torch like crazy without clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 26, 2015 Author Share Posted March 26, 2015 You sound paranoid. It is what it is man. You don't have to read my posts. Yes, we are nearing tipping points, specifics are still unknowable. Tipping points can be minor or severe, so it should not come across as 'doomer' talk. The ridiculously resilient ridge is the forcing action behind the SSTA. The new normal is to torch like crazy without clouds. Anybody can post anything related to the topic, but speculation like the above mentioned above probably won't go over well. As skier and many others have posted, land cover snow albedo is a very very small feedback that adds fractions of a Watt/m^2 to the global temperature forcing picture. Sea Ice albedo is a bit larger of a forcing but still marginal in the overall scheme of things. If anything, snow cover albedo is much more a regional issue than a global one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Anybody can post anything related to the topic, but speculation like the above mentioned above probably won't go over well. As skier and many others have posted, land cover snow albedo is a very very small feedback that adds fractions of a Watt/m^2 to the global temperature forcing picture. Sea Ice albedo is a bit larger of a forcing but still marginal in the overall scheme of things. If anything, snow cover albedo is much more a regional issue than a global one. Point taken. Losing the Eastern Canadian snowpack would be a huge blow tho and affect global temperatures more than usual since the rest of the world is already torching and Eastern North America is holding down the average. Luckily this does not look to happen as quickly as the Eurasian side. Like everything with climate, it has to be placed in context and analyzed piece by piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Anybody can post anything related to the topic, but speculation like the above mentioned above probably won't go over well. The evidence is increasing that dramatic warming is occuring. Last year it was mostly just Global_Warmer that was the 'over-the-top' type guy....and he was downplayed and ridiculed for most of the year. This year it seems like Weatherguy and Myself have been added to the mix. (did I forget anybody?) It's funny how you guys (not u really...but the other guys) paint us as the 'crazies' , just because were telling the truth about what's currently going on. Factual satellite data / current models are hard to argue against. But see'ing how strongly the deny'ers are, it's likely they'll still be in denial (and acting like were the crazy liberals) until sea levels rise at-least 10 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 The evidence is increasing that dramatic warming is occuring. Last year it was mostly just Global_Warmer that was the 'over-the-top' type guy....and he was downplayed and ridiculed for most of the year. This year it seems like Weatherguy and Myself have been added to the mix. (did I forget anybody?) It's funny how you guys (not u really...but the other guys) paint us as the 'crazies' , just because were telling the truth about what's currently going on. Factual satellite data / current models are hard to argue against. But see'ing how strongly the deny'ers are, it's likely they'll still be in denial (and acting like were the crazy liberals) until sea levels rise at-least 10 feet. No, y'all get criticized when you post non-scientific content. Or stuff that is pure conjecture. Both deniers and alarmists do it. And both are criticized. Not sure why that is hard to fathom. If you are going to make outlandish claims such as a bit of Eurasian snow cover having a large impact on global temperatures, then back it up because as of right now, it doesn't have a lot of scientific support. We've done the hard math in here previously...and it's been done in papers. Making a claim like that is no different than someone claiming GHGs don't warm the atmosphere. Basically...prove it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Nobody likes being right for the wrong reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 No, y'all get criticized when you post non-scientific content. Or stuff that is pure conjecture. I hear ya....i've got my hands full in the OT section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Weatherguy that is a lot of conjecture and assumptions. Even under ideal conditions the top ocean layer (0-100M) the surface(rock, ice, dirt, snow, permafrost can only change so much so fast and hold a certain amount of heat and certain albedo. There is also feedback that come into play to level things out. In Eurasia Spring keeps starting earlier and earlier with the snow cover vanishing earlier and things greening up earlier but also drying out earlier. And the result has been unprecedented forest fires blanketing areas larger then the United States in soot and smoke lowering albedo. Also once things dry out. Especially over the shrubbery regions and any grasslands the vegetation going from green(low albedo) to dead or light brownish(higher albedo) is another feedback. The one scenario that could have a small impact in global temps over a short period would be a march 2012 situation in April over Eurasia. A persistent enough heat pump/ridges(sun) from now threw April from Eastern Euro threw the Western 1/2 of Russia up into the arctic circle could cause an unprecedented early season melt off. You can see the Valley South of the Kara sea normally has snow cover well into mid to late May. April 5th: April 15h: May 15th: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 The Western side of the divide is running well below normal and given the current weather forecast is likely to have a very very early season melt out. The Western side is higher in elevation running 1000-1500FT. The valley where the snow is above normal is closer to sea level. I am guessing cold air damming takes place with cold arctic air funneling in off the Kara down into the valley between the Western ridge and Eastern Mountains. The upcoming weather pattern is just brutal as hell for Western Eurasia snow pack. By day 3 the deep cold is pushed out. By day 4 the WSW flow has taken over. By day 5 the ridge has slide far enough East and South that a nasty WSW flow. Deep fetch is raging into the region. By day 6 the flow turns more SW. Big torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 By day 7 it's straight huge torch. This is just for fun. But on day 9-10 the euro has massive ridging over Eurasia. By April 5th the sun is pumping out between 250-300w/m2 a day up there. That is plenty strong to get big melt going with a Southerly or WSW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I find the current UAH temp situation interesting. In bold is the tropical temps for Jan and Feb of 2015. Both way below the monthly average thanks to the NH torching. But 0.325C+ two month average is a big time start. March is likely to come in around .0.35C+ or so. With the tropics blowing up 2015 on UAH could liikely see monthlies from 0.30C upwards of 0.60 maybe even higher for every month. Probably won't be a 1998 like quick peak. More like a steady torch all year. The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 14 months are: YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS2014 01 +0.291 +0.387 +0.194 -0.0292014 02 +0.170 +0.320 +0.020 -0.1032014 03 +0.170 +0.338 +0.002 -0.0012014 04 +0.190 +0.358 +0.022 +0.0922014 05 +0.326 +0.325 +0.328 +0.1752014 06 +0.305 +0.315 +0.295 +0.5102014 07 +0.304 +0.289 +0.319 +0.4512014 08 +0.199 +0.244 +0.153 +0.0612014 09 +0.294 +0.187 +0.401 +0.1812014 10 +0.365 +0.333 +0.396 +0.1892014 11 +0.329 +0.354 +0.303 +0.2472014 12 +0.322 +0.465 +0.178 +0.2962015 01 +0.351 +0.553 +0.150 +0.1262015 02 +0.296 +0.434 +0.157 +0.015 It's also warminista party time!!!! And the sub-surface is loaded with heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Is there ever anomalous Westerlies over central and Eastern ENSO 3? Iv'e been tracking this for a little over two years and I can't recall them ever being at the level right over the middle of ENSO 3 like they are ENSO 4 a lot. Is that the missing piece to a decent Nino breaking out? Even without them the sub-surface water with the ENSO 4 anomalous winds is still hauling as to the East and getting warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 There was a recent study that debunked UAH. It has a modest cold bias, take a look for yourself. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/mar/25/one-satellite-data-set-is-underestimating-global-warming Removing Diurnal Cycle Contamination in Satellite-Derived Tropospheric Temperatures: Understanding Tropical Tropospheric Trend Discrepancieshttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00767.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 You sound paranoid. It is what it is man. You don't have to read my posts. Yes, we are nearing tipping points, specifics are still unknowable. Tipping points can be minor or severe, so it should not come across as 'doomer' talk. The ridiculously resilient ridge is the forcing action behind the SSTA. The new normal is to torch like crazy without clouds. Quite frankly, I'm not sure how I sound paranoid but I don't really care, either. I ask that you only stick to the science as this is a scientific forum and almost everything you say is sensationalized and much of it is just flat out wrong. I can't control what you post, but you should understand how you come off. Do what you wish, but expect to have your unscientific posts called out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Is there ever anomalous Westerlies over central and Eastern ENSO 3? Iv'e been tracking this for a little over two years and I can't recall them ever being at the level right over the middle of ENSO 3 like they are ENSO 4 a lot. Is that the missing piece to a decent Nino breaking out? Even without them the sub-surface water with the ENSO 4 anomalous winds is still hauling as to the East and getting warmer Overall, the strongest WWBs over Nino 3 are quite a bit weaker (about a factor of 2) than the strongest WWBs over Nino 4. When Nino 3 DOES come alive and for an extended period of time, it's usually associated with a strong El Nino. Some moderate Ninos had a pretty weak signal from Nino 3 zonal wind anomalies. Nino 3: Nino 4: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Overall, the strongest WWBs over Nino 3 are quite a bit weaker (about a factor of 2) than the strongest WWBs over Nino 4. When Nino 3 DOES come alive and for an extended period of time, it's usually associated with a strong El Nino. Some moderate Ninos had a pretty weak signal from Nino 3 zonal wind anomalies. Nino 3: Nino 4: Thanks for the info. I really appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Is there ever anomalous Westerlies over central and Eastern ENSO 3? Iv'e been tracking this for a little over two years and I can't recall them ever being at the level right over the middle of ENSO 3 like they are ENSO 4 a lot. Is that the missing piece to a decent Nino breaking out? Even without them the sub-surface water with the ENSO 4 anomalous winds is still hauling as to the East and getting warmer According to my untrained eye, the subsurface is indeed NOT warming, as you claim (in bold above.) (Below is from your post on the 21st.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 It's still growing. Those are two different sources. the CPC sub-surface OHC is still rising and is quite high again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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