The_Global_Warmer Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 This thread is getting difficult for me to read. CFS is now up to a 0.26C+ March monthly. That's a 0.81C+ giss equivalent. Equatorial Pacific OHC is up to 1.325C+ pretty standard before a moderate to strong nino. With the current wind set up we will certainly see enso warming surface and sub surface over enso. 2015 is going to blow the doors off the hiatus and change the worlds view on AGW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 CFS is now up to a 0.26C+ March monthly. That's a 0.81C+ giss equivalent. Equatorial Pacific OHC is up to 1.325C+ pretty standard before a moderate to strong nino. With the current wind set up we will certainly see enso warming surface and sub surface over enso. 2015 is going to blow the doors off the hiatus and change the worlds view on AGW. Its one thing to say this at the end of the year, but there are so many things that can change that between now and then. I definitely think 2015 has started in a manner you would expect for a record breaking year, but its only 2 1/2 months in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Its one thing to say this at the end of the year, but there are so many things that can change that between now and then. I definitely think 2015 has started in a manner you would expect for a record breaking year, but its only 2 1/2 months in. This. Objectivity is extremely refreshing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 Its one thing to say this at the end of the year, but there are so many things that can change that between now and then. I definitely think 2015 has started in a manner you would expect for a record breaking year, but its only 2 1/2 months in. Agreed and good point. However, if the current trajectory of warmth continues (entirely speculative), 2015 could break the previous year's record by almost 0.1C, which would be an incredible feat that only 1998 accomplished with a Super Nino. This is also much warmer than many of us (including me) would have anticipated. I personally enjoy seeing the updates from TGW and others in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 With Detroit to New England receiving record snowfalls (in fact Detroit has had something like 6 of it's top 10 snowiest winters ever in last 12 years) should we anticipate that as the planet continues to warm that these regions will continue to have more severe winter seasons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 With Detroit to New England receiving record snowfalls (in fact Detroit has had something like 6 of it's top 10 snowiest winters ever in last 12 years) should we anticipate that as the planet continues to warm that these regions will continue to have more severe winter seasons? You should read some of Jennifer Francis' work on the jet stream perturbations and how it relates to a warming arctic. The theory is essentially that as the earth warms, the jet stream becomes more meridonal and "lazy" and thus allows for enhanced warming and enhanced cooling events in the mid latitudes. As long as the EPO behaves and the GOA warm pool sticks around, it's possible that the west will continue to scorch while the east stays relatively cool as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Agreed and good point. However, if the current trajectory of warmth continues (entirely speculative), 2015 could break the previous year's record by almost 0.1C, which would be an incredible feat that only 1998 accomplished with a Super Nino. This is also much warmer than many of us (including me) would have anticipated. I personally enjoy seeing the updates from TGW and others in this thread. I do too. I don't have time to go dig up all the plots they post so I enjoy them. Its just that we don't need to over state what each additional day of warmth means. 2015 certainly has the chance of being an extremely important year. I just think we need a little more "wait and see". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 You should read some of Jennifer Francis' work on the jet stream perturbations and how it relates to a warming arctic. The theory is essentially that as the earth warms, the jet stream becomes more meridonal and "lazy" and thus allows for enhanced warming and enhanced cooling events in the mid latitudes. As long as the EPO behaves and the GOA warm pool sticks around, it's possible that the west will continue to scorch while the east stays relatively cool as a result. There was a paper in the latest Science that describes the reduction in jet stream energy as a factor in increaseing severe heat waves in teh summer. It appears that this theory is catching on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 it is truely enlightening that the global warming is so powerful that no matter whether it is colder, warmer, wetter, drier, or snowier that any of those results are due to global warming that mankind is causing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 it is truely enlightening that the global warming is so powerful that no matter whether it is colder, warmer, wetter, drier, or snowier that any of those results are due to global warming that mankind is causing. I'm sure your point is in jest, but everything that happens weather-wise is encased with a warming world. Does that mean every single extreme weather event wouldn't happen without AGW? No, of course it doesn't. But it's not nearly as simple as saying everything is caused or happens irregardless of the existence of AGW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 The Francis Wavey Jet theory has been met with some stiff resistance in the literature, so that idea is quite debatable. I think we already had a thread on it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 it is truely enlightening that the global warming is so powerful that no matter whether it is colder, warmer, wetter, drier, or snowier that any of those results are due to global warming that mankind is causing. The numbers don't lie my man, the beat goes on. Not sure if the historic -EPO was caused by arctic amplification but if it is then Dr Francis is pretty much locked in and certain to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 it is truely enlightening that the global warming is so powerful that no matter whether it is colder, warmer, wetter, drier, or snowier that any of those results are due to global warming that mankind is causing. truely indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 did weeper have a stroke or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 The Francis Wavey Jet theory has been met with some stiff resistance in the literature, so that idea is quite debatable. I think we already had a thread on it though. Actually, I believe the new paper that Ms is referring to has a reduction of eddy kinetic energy as the primary driver for the increase in extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Actually, I believe the new paper that Ms is referring to has a reduction of eddy kinetic energy as the primary driver for the increase in extremes. I'm not familiar with that one. I just know the previous paper on increased blocking due to lower sea ice was criticized pretty hard in a couple papers that came out after it. I'll have to read the new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I'm not familiar with that one. I just know the previous paper on increased blocking due to lower sea ice was criticized pretty hard in a couple papers that came out after it. I'll have to read the new one. Here's a link: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2015/03/13/science.1261768.abstractPay-walled of course. Summary (from the Environment Subreddit): Background: Frontal cyclones (and their sibling anticyclones) are waves that develop in the generally west-east flow between the tropics and the arctic. Their purpose (in a thermodynamic sense) is to redistribute energy more evenly between the tropics (which have a heat surplus) and the arctic (which have a heat deficit). As the difference in temperature between the tropics and arctic grows, the jet stream picks up speed, develops unstable waves, and these cyclones/anticyclones develop, which redistribute heat and bring the system back into a quasi-balance. Observation: Climate change has warmed the arctic more than regions south of it. This has come with a reduction in jet stream speed, which is expected. Question: Has there also been a decline in the number or strength of frontal cyclones and anticyclones, which would also be expected? Methodology: Define the amount of cyclone/anticyclone activity by the amount of kinetic energy present in the winds that exists within waves with a 2.5-6 day period, which is typically accepted as a definition of these cyclones/anticyclones. Compute the total amount of kinetic energy during boreal summer each year from 1979-2013. Results: Statistically-significant decline in cyclone energy over the observed time period. Strong correlation to reduction in jet stream speed, which matches well to future projections from climate models. Practical Significance: Low kinetic-energy years over Europe, for example, are correlated to periods of persistent weather. In the summer, this usually translates to heat waves. This is believed to be caused by the reduction in these transient wave-systems, which allows for persistent, largely immobile wave-systems to express themselves more. Low kinetic-energy summers typically mean more heat waves, more droughts, more prolonged heat extremes. If the observed downward trend in summer kinetic energy continues, as is implied by climate model projections, it would be wise to prepare for more of these conditions occurring more frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 That is indeed the new one. Its not sea ice but rather arctic amplification in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisf97212 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Here's a link: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2015/03/13/science.1261768.abstract Pay-walled of course. Summary (from the Environment Subreddit): I can see that rationale. Did the paper say how much the delta T between tropic and arctic has decreased? If thirty years ago the difference was say 115 F but only 110F now, would that be enough buckle the jet into semi-permanent patterns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 This. Objectivity is extremely refreshing. We have discussed this happening for almost a year. What you predicted would happen by December going into January isn't even close at all. Doesn't sound very objective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 We have discussed this happening for almost a year. What you predicted would happen by December going into January isn't even close at all. Doesn't sound very objective. Yep, almost as bad as your Arctic rhetoric last summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 ^ both have good points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 I think with +ENSO conditions continuing, another record is quite likely. History has shown that the longer neutral and +ENSO conditions persist, the more heat that accumulates in the upper oceans and atmosphere. It takes a good Nina to flush everything out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 20, 2015 Author Share Posted March 20, 2015 I think with +ENSO conditions continuing, another record is quite likely. History has shown that the longer neutral and +ENSO conditions persist, the more heat that accumulates in the upper oceans and atmosphere. It takes a good Nina to flush everything out. Yeah, my thoughts exactly. There is a bit of system inertia when it comes to ENSO events, both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Our lazy, fickle Nino looks to be getting a swift kick in the rear with this latest MJO and associated EKW and WWB madness. Trades further east have weakened considerably as well. Not seeing the resisting easterlies and persistently high SOI values that we saw last March/April and the upper mixed layer is considerably warmer. It's still a bit early, but if the weekly CFSv2 forecasts continue to pan out, we might just see a full blown event this year: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 The sub-surface is not as warm OHC as last year but is still very warm and with the current wind regime it will only get warmer. Wind anomalies weaken but hold around 150-160W which is plenty East to keep the sub-surface warmth building and heading East. It's also surfacing as well. There is forecast weak but consistent anomalies over Eastern enso 3 and enso 1-2 that will help the warm ssts emerge and they will back build towards the other maxima ramping up out West. It won't be very long before full nino conditions take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 last year at this time...compared to now. (1st is 2014...2nd = 2015) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 And the ability to toss out what is happening in the Antarctic, what a useful predetermined purposing.l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 did weeper have a stroke or something? No but it's obvious that you are still stroking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 And the ability to toss out what is happening in the Antarctic, what a useful predetermined purposing.l What? In other need News cfs has leveled off around 0.40C+ in the two day running mean. That is record level warmth still. The monthly is up to 0.276C+ equal to a .83C+ giss equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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