HailMan06 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 checking out the anomaly, the first thing that stuck out for me was : ....then realizing a Cat 5 cane just struck there. Cat 5's in march.....interesting. March is the southern hemisphere's "September" so now would be the most likely time for one to develop in that part of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 recognized...but Cat 5's (super typhoons / or whatever their name of choice is) in that area = are still odd in general. especially with the area of above normal SST's, which are usually just north of there. If an El Nino is near, it'll be quite a nefarious one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Good observation. The South/West pacific basins show a stronger AGW enhancement signal than the Atlantic, where it is pretty much non-existent. I get the impression the lowering of activity in the Atlantic basin is also due to the AGW influence in some way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Modeled Pacific equatorial winds show a massive burst of westerlies over the Cpac which will only enhance the already explosive sub surface. Then a 2nd weaker batch of anomolous winds over the far epac will help the warmer waters surface. If this one makes it to legit 1.0 or higher by May- July next SOND could pull a .85 or so average. As it stands CFS shows major NH warmth attm Current giss equivalent to .75c. Yes I agree with ohc at record highs a new baseline is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 What is the highest daily temperature anomaly record for the CFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/carl/weather/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.png That subsurface pool is gonna grow even larger and Warner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 What is the highest daily temperature anomaly record for the CFS? I have no idea. But its torching hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/carl/weather/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.png That subsurface pool is gonna grow even larger and Warner That is pretty fooked up man. How is that even possible? Those tropical cyclones really reversed the flow in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 CFS dailies currently at ~+0.40 C and March MTD is at +0.214 C. March GISS record is +0.87 C in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Good observation. The South/West pacific basins show a stronger AGW enhancement signal than the Atlantic, where it is pretty much non-existent. I get the impression the lowering of activity in the Atlantic basin is also due to the AGW influence in some way. Your impression goes against what "experts" observe....but make up whatever you want to fit your belief... http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/global-warming-is-causing-more-hurricanes-8212584.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Your impression goes against what "experts" observe....but make up whatever you want to fit your belief... http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/global-warming-is-causing-more-hurricanes-8212584.html Wait for ORH or Bluewave to discredit your post. I'm on the fence about it but it looks like there is more SAL than ever before and the AMOC is changing resulting in a hostile North Atlantic tripole. It's not made up, it's based on fact and observations from the last two seasons. Not sure if it will continue tho. The ITCZ appears more 'dead' than ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 16, 2015 Author Share Posted March 16, 2015 The Northern Hemisphere is torching something fierce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Wait for ORH or Bluewave to discredit your post. I'm on the fence about it but it looks like there is more SAL than ever before and the AMOC is changing resulting in a hostile North Atlantic tripole. It's not made up, it's based on fact and observations from the last two seasons. Not sure if it will continue tho. The ITCZ appears more 'dead' than ever. The literature at the moment supports mostly neutral effects on TC frequency. Maybe a slight decrease. But a slight increase in peak intensity. There's been no trend in Atlantic TCs over the past 100+ years when we account for observation techniques. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 The Northern Hemisphere is torching something fierce. i'm guessing another arctic dip (sea ice) is expected ? it's been holding its own the last week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 The Northern Hemisphere is torching something fierce. Yes it is. Not tropical driven either. And hasn't been. Except marginally at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 i'm guessing another arctic dip (sea ice) is expected ? it's been holding its own the last week or so. No it should increase with the bootleg dipole forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 It's still early for Arctic temps to affect the ice in a meaningful way. Having the Northern Hemisphere continents roasting is not good going forward tho. We should hope the +AO remains to prevent a massive unprecedented heat exchange with the Arctic. Either the Mid-Latitudes torches, or the Arctic torches. No way to avoid both of them at the same time. The tropics look to torch inevitably due to the emerging warm ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 CFS is at a 0.78C+ GISS equivalent right now. ENSO is about to blow up a lot. While the sub-surface warm pool keeps growing and get a huge kick in the ass to move East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 It's still early for Arctic temps to affect the ice in a meaningful way. Having the Northern Hemisphere continents roasting is not good going forward tho. We should hope the +AO remains to prevent a massive unprecedented heat exchange with the Arctic. Either the Mid-Latitudes torches, or the Arctic torches. No way to avoid both of them at the same time. The tropics look to torch inevitably due to the emerging warm ENSO. Given May is always bad now you don't want a head start. By May 1st the sun is powerful. Already at 400W/M2 a day between 60-90N. The faster the snow melts the faster things green up and dry out the faster albedo drops the faster the heat builds and eventually more epic wildfires helping torch permafrost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Enso surface warmth is exploding onto the scene. Expect full enso 1-4 nino level ssts within 10 day Enso 3-4 looks like it will see a big jump into the 2-3c range. Cooling off over enso 3 and then 1-2c anomalies over enso 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 March is a lock for .70c+ on giss Probably around 0.80c. Pending enso the so and aao we may not see our first sub 0.70c giss month until June. And by then nino could be raging. Barring a sudden Nina in fall or volcano I give 2015 a 1% chance to not set a new record on ncdc hadley and giss. 25% chance on UAH and 35% on RSS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 I would bet the farm that ohc sets a record every quarter this year. It's no coincidence that ohc rose the last 24 months and we are at record or above warmth without a nino or with as weak of one oni wise as it gets if there is strong mean yo by June or July averaging at least a 1.0c+ threw December with a at least a four month period averaging 1.5c+ I bet giss is at a min 0.75c possibly 0.78c or so. Uah 0.45 to 0.50c+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Time sensitive. But damn within 10N to 10S that is wall to wall anomalous at various points along the equator. It doesn't show up well on those 5N to 5S but even on that graphic we can see big time anomalies currently to about 150W. However over the next 4 days between 5N and 10N around 150W to 110W there will be strong anomalies as well. One thing is for sure that sub-surface warm pool will continue to be fed big time while surely surfacing some in ENSO 3-4 and as well as ENSO 1-2 the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Not surprising. Also the models show the global torch slowly dropping from the current peaks which are just absurd to more modest blow torching in the daily 0.30C range or so versus round 0.50C+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 So, that is where all the heat went for the past decade.....what a mess. Now we are also combating polar vortex driven denialism in the CONUS. Everything that could of went wrong did infact happen 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Nino warming is exploding. Remember this is a 5 day running mean as well. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/oisst/navy-anom-bb.gif Also CFS shows incredible torching without a nino. http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/cdas_v2_hemisphere_2015.png The monthly is up to a 0.249C . Yesterday it was 0.231C+. Massive gains. That's a 0.80C+ giss equivalent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 Nino warming is exploding. Remember this is a 5 day running mean as well. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/oisst/navy-anom-bb.gif Also CFS shows incredible torching without a nino. http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/cdas_v2_hemisphere_2015.png The monthly is up to a 0.249C . Yesterday it was 0.231C+. Massive gains. That's a 0.80C+ giss equivalent Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't NOAA declared a weak nino event? Not that it really matters too much with this global heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Nino warming is exploding. Remember this is a 5 day running mean as well. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/oisst/navy-anom-bb.gif Also CFS shows incredible torching without a nino. http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/cdas_v2_hemisphere_2015.png The monthly is up to a 0.249C . Yesterday it was 0.231C+. Massive gains. That's a 0.80C+ giss equivalent mDang no wonder the sea lions are dying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 If that upwelling off the ca coast quits like its looking like its starting too they are going to be getting hurricanes too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 This thread is getting difficult for me to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.