bluewave Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Below normal temperatures limited to a very small section of the Northern Hemisphere this fall as record warmth was the big story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Below normal temperatures limited to a very small section of the Northern Hemisphere this fall as record warmth was the big story. temp.gif That's pretty frightening. I imagine this winter, below normal temperatures will expand to Greenland and the North Atlantic as well as central Asia/China/Japan with the Kara block but these colder areas will remain limited in aerial extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Warm start......another record lock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 Warm start......another record lock? ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.png That's 6 hours of global temperatures... However, there is no reason to doubt that December will probably break the record given the super nino base state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 That's 6 hours of global temperatures... However, there is no reason to doubt that December will probably break the record given the super nino base state. Here is NCAR Reanalysis, showing stability at a new baseline. http://www.moyhu.org.s3.amazonaws.com/data/freq/ncep.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Here is NCAR Reanalysis, showing stability at a new baseline. http://www.moyhu.org.s3.amazonaws.com/data/freq/ncep.html Can you keep your hyperbolic laymen's conjecture in the banter thread? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Can you keep your hyperbolic laymen's conjecture in the banter thread? Thanks How is the above hyperbolic? I concede it's impossible to prove right now and is anecdotal but far from hyperbolic. This is an unusual post coming from you. Part of me thinks you are spouting big words. I don't buy all the conjecture about global temperatures cooling significantly post el-nino. Moreover, the MJO has been doing some weird stuff, it's the same process that has been ongoing since 2013. We are simply abruptly warming, hopefully due to a decrease in global dimming rather than tipping points in OHC/Water vapor or Arctic Ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 UAH V6 decreased slightly to +0.33c for November 2015. Has yet to approach / break the record of 1997-98. However, the spike in 1997-98 occurred Dec-Feb, particularly Jan-Feb. And given the "pre-spike" values of already +0.33c, it seems possible if not likely that UAH sets a new record high monthly anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 AH, your previous post to that one was very hyperbolic A record lock after 6 hours? Really? I think people like you do more harm than good. And as such, reading your exaggerated posts that have no validity really annoy me and go against the the purpose of this forum (to discus scientific information - not baseless speculation). I've conceded that the mobs are not going to remove you, but the least you can do is confine this type of posting to the banter thread where I can avoid it. Your posts add nothing. If you want to leave data, then please do. But can you please spare us the sky is falling routine? At best your preaching to the choir but at worst you're frustrating and annoying the choir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 AH, your previous post to that one was very hyperbolic A record lock after 6 hours? Really? I think people like you do more harm than good. And as such, reading your exaggerated posts that have no validity really annoy me and go against the the purpose of this forum (to discus scientific information - not baseless speculation). I've conceded that the mobs are not going to remove you, but the least you can do is confine this type of posting to the banter thread where I can avoid it. Your posts add nothing. If you want to leave data, then please do. But can you please spare us the sky is falling routine? At best your preaching to the choir but at worst you're frustrating and annoying the choir. Unfortunately the extreme alarmists contributed to the unraveling of the scientific debate over climate change a long time ago. We mostly are observers of extremists (both alarmists and deniers) which dominate the blogs/media/etc. A denier isn't interested in 3.71 W/M2 or what a time of observation (TOBS) adjustment is and alarmists aren't interested in ECS = F2xCO2 ⨯ ΔT / (ΔF-ΔQ) or what the term natural variability means. Reading the actual literature is really the only way at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 There is no reason to think abrupt warming is taking place. When el nino fades global temps will cool off some just because that huge area won't be 1-3C above normal air wise at the surface every month bringing major consistency. However upper ocean OHC isn't going to drop much if at all both 100m and 700m are way above previous peaks. And the water vapor feedback is being forced by the ever increasing GHG forcing. Since water vapor is essentially consistent with surface temps something would need to counter it stabilizing at a warmer baseline. One thing to really watch is NA snow depth. 2/3rds of Canada might go into Spring with a snow deficit bigger than 2012. Solar insolation on April 1st at 60N is higher than Miami on Dec 21st. The potential warming between April and the end of May over NH land areas between 50-70N is massive. Snow and ice albedo feedback in Spring prevent the complete destruction of the cryosphere. If we start seeing land snow cover vanishing by May 1st the damage to permafrost and glaciers could be enormous. Also forest fires would be outrageous which would deposit dark material over all of the ice accelerating glacial melt way faster than actual atmospheric warming. The dirty ice layer which is like 5% of GIS sees tenfold the ice melt versus clean ice at the same temp and altitude. I bet between 2016-2020 we see a huge jump again in glacial ice loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 December starting off very warm per the GFS forecast. Through the 8th the GFS global forecast anomaly mean is 0.78 vs 0.54 for the GFS October mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 +0.46 for CFSv2 for December. Using the standard conversion to GISS, that would solidify another +1.00 or higher anomaly on GISS. December starting off warm, but it's extremely early of course to know where this month is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 UAH V6 decreased slightly to +0.33c for November 2015. Has yet to approach / break the record of 1997-98. However, the spike in 1997-98 occurred Dec-Feb, particularly Jan-Feb. And given the "pre-spike" values of already +0.33c, it seems possible if not likely that UAH sets a new record high monthly anomaly. Yes its now or never for UAH6 - 1.00C by Feb or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Below normal temperatures limited to a very small section of the Northern Hemisphere this fall as record warmth was the big story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 UAH V6 decreased slightly to +0.33c for November 2015. Has yet to approach / break the record of 1997-98. However, the spike in 1997-98 occurred Dec-Feb, particularly Jan-Feb. And given the "pre-spike" values of already +0.33c, it seems possible if not likely that UAH sets a new record high monthly anomaly.Definitely cooler than I expected. November 2015 at .33C was a .1C drop from October which came in at .43C. From what people were saying here, one would have expected an increase.Is RSS out for Nov 2015 yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Definitely cooler than I expected. November 2015 at .33C was a .1C drop from October which came in at .43C. From what people were saying here, one would have expected an increase. Is RSS out for Nov 2015 yet? RSS November was 0.43 down 0.02 vs. October. Satellites are tracking 1997 reasonably well this year with a moderate but uneven rise. As Isotherm mentioned the big spike was Dec 97 through Feb 98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 SST through November are topping out. Peak global SST for this nino are going to end up roughly 0.3C warmer than 97/98 and 0.2C warmer than 09/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 SST through November are topping out. Peak global SST for this nino are going to end up roughly 0.3C warmer than 97/98 and 0.2C warmer than 09/10. reyhighisstoiv2_monthly_0-360E_-90-90N_n_19812010a.png The new baseline is likely to be well above the 2002-2010 average. With upper ocean OHC so much higher now. I mean 2014 also was record setting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 An interesting paper that suggests that some of the calculation used by UAH is perhaps flawed. http://www.atmos.uw.edu/~qfu/Publications/jtech.pochedley.2015.pdf BTW, it is now almost the end of the year, and as far as I know, UAHv6 still has not been submitted for peer review. As noted previously, that version has a distinct and statistically notable cooling trend vs. version 5.6. If version 6.0 remains largely oblivious to the El Niño warming relative to version 5.6 and RATPAC, that outcome will raise additional questions related to the utility of version 6.0, especially if it still has not been submitted for peer review. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 An interesting paper that suggests that some of the calculation used by UAH is perhaps flawed. http://www.atmos.uw.edu/~qfu/Publications/jtech.pochedley.2015.pdf BTW, it is now almost the end of the year, and as far as I know, UAHv6 still has not been submitted for peer review. As noted previously, that version has a distinct and statistically notable cooling trend vs. version 5.6. If version 6.0 remains largely oblivious to the El Niño warming relative to version 5.6 and RATPAC, that outcome will raise additional questions related to the utility of version 6.0, especially if it still has not been submitted for peer review. UAH has been similar to RSS this year, however, so that does give it some creedence. Unless, however, you believe that both satellites are equally flawed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 UAH has been similar to RSS this year, however, so that does give it some creedence. Unless, however, you believe that both satellites are equally flawed. RSS may well suffer from the measurement adjustment flaw described in the paper. My guess is that UAHv6.0 has not been submitted to peer review at this time, because its architects don't have sufficient confidence that the changes would hold up to scrutiny. The blog is putting a much more confident spin on things, but if they were as confident as suggested in the blog, the revisions would already have been submitted for peer review. IMO, if both RSS and UAHv6.0 fall well short of 1998's anomalies and even 2010's (from a weaker El Niño event) by the end of next spring, that will be a powerful signal that both datasets may be significantly flawed, given the record warm anomalies being registered on the others, including RATPAC (which also measures atmospheric temperatures). We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Good post DonS. The beat goes on. http://www.moyhu.org.s3.amazonaws.com/data/freq/ncep.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 IMO, if both RSS and UAHv6.0 fall well short of 1998's anomalies and even 2010's (from a weaker El Niño event) by the end of next spring, that will be a powerful signal that both datasets may be significantly flawed, given the record warm anomalies being registered on the others, including RATPAC (which also measures atmospheric temperatures). We'll see what happens. Since 1998 was 17 years ago, one would expect the 2015 El Nino to be 0.25C to 0.3C warmer given a background warming rate of around .15C/decade or slightly higher and similar ONI. UAH peaked at +0.66C in April 1998, so we should peak between +0.91C and +0.96C in the coming months. The 2009-10 El Nino peaked at +0.57C on UAH in March 2010. We should have warmed about 0.1C since then globally, and this Nino also has an ONI that is about 0.7C higher than 09-10, about a third of which is often expressed in global temperature. This would also lead to a peak anomaly around +0.9C. If UAH v6.0 does not reach at least +0.9C for its peak anomaly, it will signify that either the satellites are flawed and running too cool, or background warming has not been as strong as predicted--the hiatus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 I don't understand how you can deny something that is empirical. Nobody lives in the upper troposphere. Surface temperatures are record warm. We have to account for the difference, why would they be warmer now than before when considering the troposphere temperatures remain relatively unchanged at this point or even less? (According to UAH) This raises a plethora of issues including questioning the proper way to benchmark global warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Third of the way through December in the books, with the CFSv2 at +0.67 for the month. That is the highest anomaly I can remember for any month since I have been following its monthly progression. I think it is very unlikely that this month finishes below +0.5 on the CFSv2. Dailies are +0.8 and are actually increasing. That's an incredible +1.40 to +1.50 GISS equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Third of the way through December in the books, with the CFSv2 at +0.67 for the month. That is the highest anomaly I can remember for any month since I have been following its monthly progression. I think it is very unlikely that this month finishes below +0.5 on the CFSv2. Dailies are +0.8 and are actually increasing. That's an incredible +1.40 to +1.50 GISS equivalent. Add ~0.3C to GISS anomalies to get the approximate value relative to preindustrial levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 10, 2015 Author Share Posted December 10, 2015 Third of the way through December in the books, with the CFSv2 at +0.67 for the month. That is the highest anomaly I can remember for any month since I have been following its monthly progression. I think it is very unlikely that this month finishes below +0.5 on the CFSv2. Dailies are +0.8 and are actually increasing. That's an incredible +1.40 to +1.50 GISS equivalent. I'm a bit surprised considering the highest anomalies likely won't be posted until Feb-April time frame considering the 3-4 month lag. While it appears that December will cool a bit in the Northern Hemisphere with a neutral AO in the future, it's basically solidified as the warmest Dec ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Add ~0.3C to GISS anomalies to get the approximate value relative to preindustrial levels. Nutty! We've warned more in one year than we did in 15 years. The key question, how much of the warming will be lost after the el nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 All research funding should go into satellites... If there is a problem with them, fix it. This is a far superior data set to invest in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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