2015 Global Temperatures

[Chinook]

I would like to ask some questions about global temperatures, and global temperature records. 

 

a) What were the 10 warmest years in history?

b ) Will 2015 rank as nearly the same temp as 2014, or warmer?

c) Does the answer to #1 depend on global temperature data set, and how much?

d) What are considered to be the major data sets that are talked about by thousands of climatologists? NASA GISS? UAH?  Microwave-based lower tropospheric temp (not sure if this is the same as something else)? HADCRUT?  Remote Sensing Systems? NOAA?

[chubbs]

I would like to ask some questions about global temperatures, and global temperature records. 

 

a) What were the 10 warmest years in history?

b ) Will 2015 rank as nearly the same temp as 2014, or warmer?

c) Does the answer to #1 depend on global temperature data set, and how much?

d) What are considered to be the major data sets that are talked about by thousands of climatologists? NASA GISS? UAH?  Microwave-based lower tropospheric temp (not sure if this is the same as something else)? HADCRUT?  Remote Sensing Systems? NOAA?

 a) I only have the top ten for NASA GISS readily available. From warm to cool: 2015 (to date), 2014, 2010, 2005, 2007, 2013, 2006, 2012, 2002, 2003.

 

b} 2015 is warmer than 2014 on all datasets. Based on previous ENSO cycles 2016 will be warmer than 2015.

 

c) The datasets vary in ranking of individual years. the surface temperature datasets (GISS, NOAA, HADCRUT, BEST, JMA) are generally similar but the ranking of individual years changes some. The satellite series of troposphere temperature (UAH and RSS) are  different from the surface temperature datasets since they have a much larger ENSO signal. The top three years on the satellites are: 1998, 2010 and 2015.  2016 is likely to be the warmest year on all datasets though per ENSO.

 

d) I'd say HADCRUT is probably #1 among climate scientists, based on citation in the technical literature, due to extensive error statistics, followed by GISS+NOAA. The satellites have a shorter record (since 1979) and differ enough from the surface temperature series to lower their use in climate studies unless troposphere temperature is the major focus.

[PhillipS]

I would just add the temperature record from the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) project [link].  It extends back to around 1760, but the uncertainty envelope is large prior to 1850.

 

[ORH_wxman]

Hadcrut4 rankings for top 10 are:

 

 

2014 0.567

2010 0.559

2005 0.544

1998 0.536

2003 0.509

2009 0.506

2006 0.505

2013 0.499

2002 0.496

2007 0.493

[AvantHiatus]

You just can't make this stuff up. Anyone know why the large year-to-year variations stopped after 2000? Will they resume in 2017?

[nflwxman]

GISS is out.  It's the highest monthly anomaly of all time at 1.04 C above the 1951-1980 baseline.  This solidifies 2015 as the warmest year on the record of the dataset pending any major revisions.

 

I suspect we have one or two DJF anomalies that end up higher depending on the NAO behavior.

[Snow_Miser]

GISS is out. It's the highest monthly anomaly of all time at 1.04 C above the 1951-1980 baseline. This solidifies 2015 as the warmest year on the record of the dataset pending any major revisions.

I suspect we have one or two DJF anomalies that end up higher depending on the NAO behavior.

That is news worthy. November looking extremely warm so far on the CFSv2 as well.

[The_Global_Warmer]

On the year giss has an anomaly of 0.822C+.

Since there is constant revisions the exact number will be unknown until January.

The thing that is most concerning to me is how the ripple effects will shake out the next few years with the new baseline.

The equatorial warm pool over the Pacific is still at peak levels

There is just so much heat being redistributed throughout the ecosystem so abruptly.

GHG feedbacks are getting stronger always.

[AvantHiatus]

That is news worthy. November looking extremely warm so far on the CFSv2 as well.

1.04C over 1951-1980 is like what, 1.45C over pre-industrial?

[Snow_Miser]

1.04C over 1951-1980 is like what, 1.45C over pre-industrial?

 

+1.18 above the 1880-1910 baseline. 

 

[Snow_Miser]

The surface temperature hiatus is essentially over on GISS. 

 

[chubbs]

If the current nino behaves like 1997-98 then temperatures in 2016 will be very warm. Below is a chart which compares GISS and UAH6 for the 97-98 nino to 2015. So far GISS is roughly tracking 1997 with a rise of roughly 0.2C since the beginning of the year. The GISS temperatures reached in the fall of 1997 were maintained on average through late summer of 1998. Compared to GISS, the UAH6 temperature rise in 1997-98 was larger and shifted a couple of months later. So far in 2015, UAH6 is also roughly tracking 1997. If this nino behaves like 97-98, UAH6 should continue to rise into early 2016 while GISS should level off but with month-to-month variation.

 

 

The 1997-98 data can be used to make a rough projection of 2016 temperatures. As shown below, through October, GISS is 0.38C warmer in 2015 vs 1997 while UAH6 is 0.31C warmer. If the Jan to Oct 1997-->2015 increase is maintained similarly for 1998-->2016, then GISS and UAH6 will average 1.00 and 0.77, respectively, next year. Note that the numbers don't quite add due to rounding. I had been skeptical that the 97-98 temperature rise would be fully duplicated in 2015-16,  but a very warm 2016 is looking more and more likely as this nino progresses at about the same pace as 97-98.

 

                                      GISS           UAH6

1997 Jan to Oct                0.44            -0.07      

2015 Jan to Oct                0.82             0.25

Increase97-->15               0.38             0.31

 

1998                               0.61             0.46

1998+Increase97-->15     1.00             0.77

[bluewave]

No surprise that the temperatures are rising as rapidly as they are this year after such

a dramatic trade wind reversal. It almost looks like the record trades from 98-99

through 2013 were holding back the dam of warming that just broke.

 

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n3/full/nclimate2106.html

 

Here we show that a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades—unprecedented in observations/reanalysis data and not captured by climate models—is sufficient to account for the cooling of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake. 

 

[chubbs]

No surprise that the temperatures are rising as rapidly as they are this year after such

a dramatic trade wind reversal. It almost looks like the record trades from 98-99

through 2013 were holding back the dam of warming that just broke.

 

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n3/full/nclimate2106.html

 

Here we show that a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades—unprecedented in observations/reanalysis data and not captured by climate models—is sufficient to account for the cooling of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake. 

 Yes, a post-hiatus surge is as expected. Likewise this surge will be followed by a slowdown. The long-term rate of warming though has been quite stable since about 1970.

 

[nflwxman]

 Yes, a post-hiatus surge is as expected. Likewise this surge will be followed by a slowdown. The long-term rate of warming though has been quite stable since about 1970.

 

giss trend wood_trees.png

 

I suspect this "slowdown" will be quite muted compared to the last one (1998-2013). Even though we are in the midst of a super nino, there is still plenty of an imbalance to keep the temperatures rising and it appears that the ocean's ability to absorb more and more energy has completely reversed.  While our temperature rise has been relatively linear since 1970, we should see a slight uptick in rate of change (per the climate models) related to positive water vapor and albedo feedbacks.

 

All in all, it appears all the climate sensitivity criticism of the IPCC models may have been premature. I'm sure very few skeptics expected to see this intensity of surface heat this year.

[AvantHiatus]

A slowdown in the trades is of course the only means to get a record warm el nino event. Everything is connected. The slowdown hypothesis should be brought into question this go-around, all things considered.

 

We have a growing GHG budget and there remains a relatively large lag between ocean and air temperatures, and further between the radiative imbalance and ocean temperatures worldwide.

 

Post-hiatus surge may continue for 3-5 years, as part of the processes involved in canceling out the hiatus and restoring radiative balance. We may then return to the rate of warming during the 80's and 90's after the surge or by then, abrupt climate change tipping points will be lurking around the corner.

 

According to Michael Mann, the point of no return is 2036 on business as usual, the point of which dangerous and irreversible climate change becomes 'baked' in.

[nflwxman]

No surprise that the temperatures are rising as rapidly as they are this year after such

a dramatic trade wind reversal. It almost looks like the record trades from 98-99

through 2013 were holding back the dam of warming that just broke.

 

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n3/full/nclimate2106.html

 

Here we show that a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades—unprecedented in observations/reanalysis data and not captured by climate models—is sufficient to account for the cooling of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake. 

 

wind.png

 

The question is, will the trade wind variability continue to grow larger as it has since the mid 90s?  The swings are quite wild since then especially when you include 2015.

 

As many have alluded to before, surface temperature rise will be far from straight linear.  However, will more violent shifts in trade wind activity and PDO lead to future "surprise" temperature rises that abruptly change the climate?

 

A 1 C rise smoothly over 50 years is a lot easier to handle than an abrupt 0.7C rise over 20 years from a sensible standpoint.

[donsutherland1]

Some additional data from GISS.

 

October's +1.04°C temperature anomaly, which remains subject to modest revision, was above the previously record of +0.97°C, which was established in January 2007. It is only the 5th anomaly of +0.90°C or higher on the GISS dataset, which dates back to 1880. Those anomalies are as follows:

1. +1.04°C, October 2015
2. +0.97°C, January 2007
3. +0.93°C, March 2010
4. +0.91°C, March 2002
5. +0.90°C, March 2015

For the first 10 months, 2015 has an average anomaly of +0.82°C. That previous highest anomaly for the January-October period was +0.75°C, which was established in 2014.

Every month saw 2015 achieve the 4th highest figure for that month or higher:

January: 2nd highest January anomaly
February 2nd highest February anomaly
March: 3rd highest March anomaly (5th highest monthly anomaly)
April: 4th highest April anomaly
May: 2nd highest May anomaly
June: Highest June anomaly
July: 2nd highest July anomaly
August: 2nd highest August anomaly
September: 2nd highest September anomaly
October: Highest October anomaly (highest monthly anomaly)

Existing Monthly Records for November and December:
November: +0.81°C, 2013
December: +0.79°C, 2014

Both monthly figures could be approached or surpassed.

2014 established the annual record of +0.74°C. To put things into context, 2015 would match that record if November and December had average anomalies of +0.35°C. The last time there were two consecutive months that were as cool was January-February 2008. During that time, there was a very strong La Niña event underway. This time around a strong El Niño event is ongoing. Therefore, it is extremely likely that 2015 will establish a new temperature record.

[bluewave]

The question is, will the trade wind variability continue to grow larger as it has since the mid 90s?  The swings are quite wild since then especially when you include 2015.

 

As many have alluded to before, surface temperature rise will be far from straight linear.  However, will more violent shifts in trade wind activity and PDO lead to future "surprise" temperature rises that abruptly change the climate?

 

A 1 C rise smoothly over 50 years is a lot easier to handle than an abrupt 0.7C rise over 20 years from a sensible standpoint.

 

I will give the CCSM4 credit for forecasting the the warming that we are experiencing now on the January 

2013 update. It had a two year El Nino event with the second year stronger than the first. But it underestimated

the magnitude of this second year. It also showed the switch in the IPO and PDO during 2014 and 2015.

The behavior of the trades, IPO, and PDO  following this event will be interesting to see.

 

https://ams.confex.com/ams/95Annual/videogateway.cgi/id/29266?recordingid=29266

 

https://ams.confex.com/ams/95Annual/webprogram/Paper263902.html

[chubbs]

3rd quarter OHC data is in. Down vs previous quarter but up vs last year.

 

[donsutherland1]

3rd quarter OHC data is in. Down vs previous quarter but up vs last year.

 

heat_content55-07.png

That's probably because some of the OHC that had accumulated is now being released during the strong El Niño event. Once the El Niño fades, one will probably see a resumption of the increase in OHC. The long-term trend remains remarkably stable.

[donsutherland1]

The ongoing El Niño has released a lot of heat into the lower and middle atmosphere so far. As a result, even as that part of the atmosphere usually reaches its maximum warmth during the year when an El Niño event comes to an end (modest lag), 2015's anomaly is already virtually identical to that of 2010.

 

Average anomaly (250 mb to 500 mb):

1. 2010 +0.750°C

2. 2015 +0.748°C

3. 1998 +0.745°C

 

Average anomaly surface/lower troposphere (700 mb to surface):

1. 2015 +0.750°C

2. 2014 +0.660°C

3. 2013 +0.660°C

 

If the ongoing El Niño lingers into the spring, 2016 might well have a higher mid-tropospheric warm anomaly than 2015, even if 2015 eclipses the record set in 2010.

 

Source: RATPAC

[chubbs]

That's probably because some of the OHC that had accumulated is now being released during the strong El Niño event. Once the El Niño fades, one will probably see a resumption of the increase in OHC. The long-term trend remains remarkably stable.

 Yes. While OHC declined, 0-100m ocean temperatures continue to increase following a typical ENSO cycle. Based on 2010 and 1998, this metric should peak concurrently with surface and atmosphere  temperatures in the 1st or 2nd quarter 2016.

 

[SVT450R]

UAH V5.6 was a 0.57 for october making it the warmest october on record.  To put it in perspective April 1998 was a 0.66 which was the warmest month in the dataset.  We should easily surpass that in the coming months.

[bluewave]

Greatest January through October temperature jump above a previous record year since 1998.

 

 

 

[chubbs]

HADCRUT was the odd man out last month falling just shy of its all-time monthly record of 0.832 from Jan 2007. As expected, GISS which had been lagging NOAA+HadCRUT, played catch-up as Antarctica swung from cool to warm.

2013  0.450  0.486  0.401  0.439  0.520  0.487  0.514  0.533  0.535  0.497  0.639  0.508  0.4992014  0.523  0.313  0.561  0.657  0.599  0.618  0.541  0.666  0.589  0.626  0.489  0.634  0.5672015  0.688  0.660  0.681  0.656  0.696  0.730  0.696  0.740  0.785  0.811  0.000  0.000  0.713

[chubbs]

Per Climate Central, man-made forcing can explain virtually all of the temperature rise since 1880. The acceleration in man-made forcing post-1970 is due to faster rise in GHG coupled with slower rise in aerosals due to the adoption of clean air programs in many developed countries.

 

http://www.climatecentral.org/2015-global-temp-record

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Ncdc posted a 0.98C+ anomaly for October.

Crushing the previous record in 2011.

Both temps and ssts in October and so far in 2015 are past the error margins on the dataset versus the 2nd warmest year 2014.

[Snow_Miser]

November CFSv2 is right around +0.44. Dailies are increasing once again. So I think it will be hard to get the monthly value much below this. Using the +0.55 to +0.7 conversion, that would be a +0.99 to a +1.14 expected value on GISS. Which easily would be the warmest November on record.

 

For comparison, 1997's November value was +0.65. Both +ENSO events are of similar intensity, so one would expect 2015 to be around that value using ENSO forcing alone. But according to the CFSv2 predictive method, we should be considerably warmer. So while El Nino is definitely contributing to the overall global warmth this year, it cannot explain the underlying temperature differential between 1997 and now. 

[nzucker]

November CFSv2 is right around +0.44. Dailies are increasing once again. So I think it will be hard to get the monthly value much below this. Using the +0.55 to +0.7 conversion, that would be a +0.99 to a +1.14 expected value on GISS. Which easily would be the warmest November on record.

For comparison, 1997's November value was +0.65. Both +ENSO events are of similar intensity, so one would expect 2015 to be around that value using ENSO forcing alone. But according to the CFSv2 predictive method, we should be considerably warmer. So while El Nino is definitely contributing to the overall global warmth this year, it cannot explain the underlying temperature differential between 1997 and now.

Strong +AO warming things up, too.