2015 Global Temperatures

[wolfpackmet]

The current GISS record monthly anomaly is January of 2007 +0.97 C.  Looks like we may see our 1st +1.00 C as early as this month. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

[nflwxman]

Getting an El Nino fall push to higher temperatures. October likely the warmest surface temperature month ever on an anomaly basis.

 

ncepOct.png

 

Yeah, no doubt.  I would imagine, that given the lag on ENSO, we should still see our highest relative global anomalies in the December-April range.  If we don't fall right back into a La Nina by spring, 2016 will very likely be even warmer than 2015.

[chubbs]

Yeah, no doubt.  I would imagine, that given the lag on ENSO, we should still see our highest relative global anomalies in the December-April range.  If we don't fall right back into a La Nina by spring, 2016 will very likely be even warmer than 2015.

 

2016 is looking very warm given where we are today with October at record levels and El Nino still a little shy of a peak. Its early but currently I am thinking 0.90 - 0.95 for 2016 on GISS. I am hazy on details but recall that you posted some 10-year targets a couple of years ago that were in the same ballpark.

[nflwxman]

2016 is looking very warm given where we are today with October at record levels and El Nino still a little shy of a peak. Its early but currently I am thinking 0.90 - 0.95 for 2016 on GISS. I am hazy on details but recall that you posted some 10-year targets a couple of years ago that were in the same ballpark.

 

Yeah, I posted a prediction in late 2014.

 

I believed the 2015-2024 average global temperature on GISS would be around 0.85, or 0.25C warmer than 2005-2014.  The addition of ERSST4 data in GISS changed the baseline a bit, but I will stick with my 0.25C above the previous decade projection. The adjusted number would be approximately .9 on GISS with the new data for 2015-2024.

[Jonger]

Getting an El Nino fall push to higher temperatures. October likely the warmest surface temperature month ever on an anomaly basis.

 

ncepOct.png

 

Until the El Nino relents, every month will probably set a new record high. Didn't the same thing happen in 1997-1998?

[Jonger]

2016 is looking very warm given where we are today with October at record levels and El Nino still a little shy of a peak. Its early but currently I am thinking 0.90 - 0.95 for 2016 on GISS. I am hazy on details but recall that you posted some 10-year targets a couple of years ago that were in the same ballpark.

 

I think that this will hinge on hold long El Nino lasts. Doesn't the year following an El Nino tend to be cooler than the new baseline?

[csnavywx]

I think that this will hinge on hold long El Nino lasts. Doesn't the year following an El Nino tend to be cooler than the new baseline?

Depends on how deep the "slingshot" to La Nina is. 1998-99 featured a flip to deep -PDO along with a strong Nina. 1983-84 featured a Nina but the PDO stayed neutral to positive for the vast majority of that episode. The temp drop was notably weaker (El Chicon rebound may have also tainted it somewhat).

[chubbs]

I think that this will hinge on hold long El Nino lasts. Doesn't the year following an El Nino tend to be cooler than the new baseline?

The year the nino ends is generally the warmest, so 2016 will likely be the warmest of this cycle with the nino ending next spring/summer, followed by a cooler 2017.

[chubbs]

NOAA September was 0.90 tied with Feb and March of this year for highest monthly anomaly.

[chubbs]

Hadcrut September was 0.786, almost 0.2 higher than last September's record. Only the

Jan 2007 anomaly of 0.832 was higher.

2014 0.523 0.313 0.561 0.657 0.599 0.618 0.541 0.666 0.589 0.626 0.489 0.634 0.567

2015 0.688 0.660 0.681 0.656 0.696 0.730 0.696 0.740 0.786 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.702

[AvantHiatus]

The nuttiest' 2m T anomaly output I have seen on any given model run. November looks to follow in the footsteps of October, shattering records on the surface datasets.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=global&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2015110212&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=259.9999943646519

[AvantHiatus]

[chubbs]

NCEP reanalysis for October plotted below. This year was 0.24C warmer than the previous record.

 

[AvantHiatus]

NCEP reanalysis for October plotted below. This year was 0.24C warmer than the previous record.

 

ncepoct.png

It's apparent that AGW has started in earnest. Need a couple non el-nino years to make it more obvious. Intuitively, I can recognize that the water vapor feedbacks and lion's share of GHG radiative forcing are entering the system.

 

The effects therein remain unknown on a region by region basis. Urgency is recommended.

[chubbs]

It's apparent that AGW has started in earnest. Need a couple non el-nino years to make it more obvious. Intuitively, I can recognize that the water vapor feedbacks and lion's share of GHG radiative forcing are entering the system.

 

The effects therein remain unknown on a region by region basis. Urgency is recommended.

Getting the fall warming expected in a strong Nino plus some post hiatus catch-up. The long-term rate of warming has been stable since 1970.

[Snow_Miser]

Warmest October on record according to UAH. 

[chubbs]

UAH6 up 0.18 in October vs. September, RSS up 0.07.

[Snow_Miser]

November also starting off very warm on the CFSv2.

 

With the 0.6 to 0.7 equivalent conversion from the CFSv2 to GISS, we should expect a +1.10 to a +1.20 anomaly on GISS for October. The highest anomaly ever on record. 

[chubbs]

Start of strong El Nino warming of  the troposphere last month. NCEP reanalysis 500mb temperature anomaly up 0.3C vs September.

[chubbs]

Below are NCEP reanalysis daily global temperature anomalies since 1950. By this metric, max. daily temperature anomalies in October rose well above the previous upper limit first established in the 97/98 nino.

 

[AvantHiatus]

Below are NCEP reanalysis daily global temperature anomalies since 1950. By this metric, max. daily temperature anomalies in October rose well above the previous upper limit first established in the 97/98 nino.

 

NCEPreanalysisdaily.png

Mounting evidence for a serious climate shift down the road. Abrupt climate change is probably a decade away tho, this would be the initial ekman rebound continuing post el-nino. Massive global torch on the 12z GFS.

http://www.tropicalt...9.9999943646519

 

In addition, after a brief inter-monthly hiatus, global temperatures are returning to the 0.50-0.60C range on NCAR vs the late 20th century average. That's about 1.2C above pre-industrial or 0.8C away from the dangerous threshold of 2.0C. The northern hemisphere is even warmer, as usual.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ekman_transport

 

Once you take the lid off a previously cold North America during the winter months, it leads to rapid Ekman transport, which could endanger Arctic ice next summer. It's impossible for climate to remain in a transient state between two extremes. In a sense, the el nino is a catalyst and it's effects will be felt for years, perhaps decades and shift the global temperature timeline back to rapid warming, baring any effects from meltwater discharge.

 

In a sense, it is a direct canceling out of the Hiatus, for whatever reason the Earth always tends to balance out towards the ECS (Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity) on decadal timescales.

 

The global climate is very sensitive, such that fast and slow feedbacks caused by CO2 increase cause more warming than the CO2 by itself, and yet CO2 concentration is still increasing rapidly!

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

 

 

"Without any feedbacks, a doubling of CO₂ (which amounts to a forcing of 3.7 W/m²) would result in 1 °C global warming, which is easy to calculate and is undisputed. The remaining uncertainty is due entirely to feedbacks in the system, namely, the water vapor feedback, the ice-albedo feedback, the cloud feedback, and the lapse rate feedback";^[12] addition of these feedbacks leads to a value of the sensitivity to CO₂ doubling of approximately 3 °C ± 1.5 °C).

[nflwxman]

Temperature anomalies should continue to rise (in general) until Spring 2016 if the peak of the nino is in late November/December.  However, if a strong La Nina is waiting in the wings for Fall 2016, temperatures will sharply drop like 1999.  Early signs don't suggest any major subsurface cold pools west of the dateline, which means a neutral/neg neutral condition may resume in late 2016 instead of a La Nina.

 

2017 should be cooler than 2016, either way.

[AvantHiatus]

Temperature anomalies should continue to rise (in general) until Spring 2016 if the peak of the nino is in late November/December.  However, if a strong La Nina is waiting in the wings for Fall 2016, temperatures will sharply drop like 1999.  Early signs don't suggest any major subsurface cold pools west of the dateline, which means a neutral/neg neutral condition may resume in late 2016 instead of a La Nina.

 

2017 should be cooler than 2016, either way.

Solid perspective. Whatever we experience won't be like the recent past imo in wake of el nino or any other normal climate oscillation. I will guarantee that now and stand by it until I have ground proof of confirmation or disproval. 

 

Part of my suspicion is strongly linked to the persistent rebound warming in 2013 and especially 2014, which started from the very cool year globally of 2012. Of this is in many ways the canary in the coal mine for winter in  North America. Getting stuck in the ridge sector during the warmest year on record will lead to wall to wall record breaking, in massively sharp contrast to the last two winters.

 

I think a recent slow feedback has activated and is now forcing on the system in part due to the end of the hiatus and ocean heat sequestration and the relentless increase in GHG. No doubt this is related to water vapor and ocean temperatures, which are at record highs and by a massive margin.

 

Finally, claiming 2017 will be colder than 2016 isn't saying much when your whole baseline has moved past 1.0C above pre-industrial. However, I am in agreement that 2017 will be cooler, albeit not significantly.

 

I would like to end on the important realization of needing a stronger focus on detecting abrupt climate change, after years of peer-reviewed climate science, the infrastructure is simply not there to deal with these problems in an effective manner.

 

Strong pushing for reform is necessary across the board, and we can do it without sacrificing scientific integrity.

[AvantHiatus]

A change from the recent past with severe deficits in fall snowcover. Things continue to line up for an unprecedented winter.

 

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

A change from the recent past with severe deficits in fall snowcover. Things continue to line up for an unprecedented winter.

 

 

 

 

 

...continued t-shirt weather in November....me be luvin it.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The Indian ocean basin has now reached record anomalies crushing the previous record.

The globals also set a new record.

The most important question is.

Where will the new baseline be?

[Snow_Miser]

Kind of thought GISS would be out by now. Extremely interested to see just how warm October was on that dataset. Maybe that's why they are taking longer than usual. They could be double checking their data if it is so anomalously warm just to make sure. 

[Snow_Miser]

November so far is extremely warm on the CFSv2. A +0.45 anomaly so far for the month corresponds to a +1.05 to a +1.15 anomaly for GISS. Dailies are still above +0.6, so this number will probably go up over at least the next several days. That is insane, and would shatter the previous record by more than +0.2 if we see the warmth just maintain itself alone. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Upper ocean OHC is way above historical records.

In fact the yearly records are:

1. 2015

2. 2014

3. 2013

4. 2012

5. 2011

Except like 1998. 2015 crushes all other years.

We are not even at the peak yet.

So the new baseline is going to be around 0.70C.

If we have another nino by 2020.

I'd think we reach 0.85C or warmer on giss for the year.

After the hiatus.

Many were lulled into a false sense of how fast we could warm.

There is almost no doubt that increased upper ocean OHC is responsible for some of the nino anomaly.

Being blunt. How radical the earth warmed the last 2 years just from a slight reduction in trade winds that was preceded by Hadley cell expansion and radical warming in the npac.

What the ****????

That's a bit frightening.

[AvantHiatus]

Upper ocean OHC is way above historical records.

In fact the yearly records are:

1. 2015

2. 2014

3. 2013

4. 2012

5. 2011

Except like 1998. 2015 crushes all other years.

We are not even at the peak yet.

So the new baseline is going to be around 0.70C.

If we have another nino by 2020.

I'd think we reach 0.85C or warmer on giss for the year.

After the hiatus.

Many were lulled into a false sense of how fast we could warm.

There is almost no doubt that increased upper ocean OHC is responsible for some of the nino anomaly.

Being blunt. How radical the earth warmed the last 2 years just from a slight reduction in trade winds that was preceded by Hadley cell expansion and radical warming in the npac.

What the ****????

That's a bit frightening.

Yeah, people should wake up and take COP21 seriously. The Earth has begun absorbing and releasing radiative energy in a different way than it did pre-2013.

 

The climb or inertia from the past is keeping this change from being more apparent to the general public in the short-term.

 

In addition, the emissions forcing from the last two decades is now coming online and less of it is stuck inside the global ocean which is less windy and becoming saturated with more warmth than ever before, compared to the previous baseline.

 

We have 485 CO2e globally and 490 CO2e in the northern hemisphere. Climate Thresholds will be hit if we don't take Co2 out of the atmosphere, and they will be hit faster if we do not cease releasing GHG, which in turn opens the door for the subtropical oceans to accumulate heat thru continued hadley cell expansion. Further +ENSO events will exacerbate the process by causing greater ekman transport.

 

Another moderate or strong el nino before 2020 would be bad news bears and suggest a much stronger rise in OHC and trade wind collapse. The average reload period for strong el nino is 15-20 years.