2015 Global Temperatures

[ORH_wxman]

So what will a -AO in 2035 look like? There is going to be some upward movement regardless of what the AO does. Unless you are putting all of the warming from AGW into the warm season, which would lead to insanely warm summers.

 

Well yes, 20 years down the road there will be. But likely not in the near term. We're talking about a latitude band containing the middle latitudes. The mode of the AO is a much more dominating influence on the temperatures there than something like AGW. The AGW backround warming is much easier to see when taking the entire globe.

 

That is why there is a cooling trend in that band during winter going back to the late 1980s despite 25 years of AGW. The AO is so dominating WRT temperatures there in winter that it overwhelms the slower backround signal.

[AvantHiatus]

This makes sense in the grand scheme of things with February coming in 2nd or 1st warmest on record. The winter average which had been driven down after the 1990s has significantly strengthened the effect of the oceanic hiatus which has prevented the warm season from compensating for the decline in winter temperatures.

 

It also explains why 97-98 held on to the warmest for such a long time. No other year has been able to maintain such a warm cold season environment in the middle laditudes until 2015. It remains to be seen if the warm season will follow suit.

[chubbs]

Here is the abstract for the journal article cited above available for free at second link below.

 

Contraction of the Northern Hemisphere, lower tropospheric, wintertime cold pool over the last 66 years

JONATHAN E. MARTIN

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53705, [email protected], (608) 262-9845

Abstract

Employing reanalysis data sets, several threshold temperatures at 850 hPa are used to measure the wintertime (DJF) areal extent of the lower tropospheric, Northern Hemisphere cold air pool over the past 66 cold seasons. The analysis indicates a systematic contraction of the cold pool at each of the threshold temperatures. Special emphasis is placed on analysis of the trends in the extent of the -5°C air.

Composite differences in lower tropospheric temperature, middle tropospheric geopotential height and tropopause-level jet anomalies between the 5 coldest and 5 warmest years are considered. Cold years are characterized by an equatorward expansion of the jet in the Pacific and Atlantic sectors of the hemisphere and by invigorated cold air production in high latitude Eurasia and North America. Systematic poleward encroachment of the -5°C isotherm in the exit regions of the storm tracks accounts for nearly 50% of the observed contraction of the hemispheric wintertime cold pool since 1948. It is suggested that this trend is linked to displacement of the storm tracks associated with global warming.

Correlation analyses suggest that the interannual variability of the areal extent of the 850 hPa cold pool is unrelated to variations in hemispheric snow cover, the Arctic Oscillation, or the phase and intensity of ENSO. A modest statistical connection with the East Asian Winter Monsoon, however, does appear to exist. Importantly, there is no evidence that a resurgent trend in cold Northern Hemisphere winters is ongoing. In fact, the winter of 2013-14, though desperately cold in North America, was the warmest ever observed in the 66-year time series.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00496.1

 

http://marrella.meteor.wisc.edu/Cold_pool_REVISED.pdf

[wolfpackmet]

With the cold pool contracting this should continue to contract the circumference of the jet stream (northern branch in particular).  I Would have to assume that this would slowly increase the odds of more winter time ridging in areas of the N. Hemisphere, increasing the chances for more "Ridiculously Resilient Ridges" the next 50 years.

[AvantHiatus]

Already observing massive spikes in CO2 at Mauna Loa and it is still Late Feb. The annual difference for this date is just under 4 ppm, which is unprecedented. The weekly averages are more tame and closer to 3 ppm.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Global ssta are torching hardcore even with the nina like surface temps in the enso 1-2 and Eastern 3 region while the ENSO 4 region has warmed.

 

But the Southern Hemisphere is cooking now. That area West of Southern SA is flat nasty.

 

 

The central pacific is torching hardcore.  The most notable thing is the warm anomaly areas aren't just 0.5 to 1.0 but mostly much warmer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LithiaWx]

Torchy torch

 

[chubbs]

Over past 13 months average delta between Wxbell cfs2 and GISS has been 0.575

[AvantHiatus]

Over past 13 months average delta between Wxbell cfs2 and GISS has been 0.575

Seems higher than usual. January was only about 0.16C on the CFS. On GISS, it came out as 0.75C.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Major equatorial sub-surface warming is underway.

 

 

TAO now shows 4C+ max anomaly.

 

 

Current wind forecasts show the warmth won't be surfacing anytime soon.

 

But the pool will be continually fed reinforcing warmth.

 

 

 

 

 

It is important to take notice that while the far Eastern equatorial Pacific is slightly below normal.  Most of the EQPAC is above to torching over a huge area out West.

 

The warm regions are so much more widespread and large then the cool regions globally.

 

Its not even close anymore.

 

[AvantHiatus]

TGW, what is going on with sea level anomalies off the East Coast? I've noticed SSTA has spiked there strongly since last week.

[AvantHiatus]

Full Loop - 0z GFS 2m Temps. Some bizarre stuff going down these days.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=global&pkg=T2m&runtime=2015030400&fh=324&xpos=0&ypos=290.9090846038063

 

2m Anomaly

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=global&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2015030400&fh=276&xpos=0&ypos=290.9090846038063

[wolfpackmet]

February 2015 came in at +0.30 C of the baseline for UAH.  This was the 3rd warmest February on record.  It was also the 36 month in a row above the baseline.

[PhillipS]

February 2015 came in at +0.30 C of the baseline for UAH.  This was the 3rd warmest February on record.  It was also the 36 month in a row above the baseline.

 

And Feb was warmer than any month prior to 1998.

[AvantHiatus]

A reservoir of heat already in the system 

Increased levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases create an energy imbalance between incoming and outgoing radiation, which is resolved by elements of the earth system (land and oceans) absorbing the additional heat until the system reaches a new balance (equilibrium) at a higher temperature. But that process takes time, due to thermal inertia (as with an electric oven: once energy is applied, it takes time for all the structure to heat up and is not instantaneous). As a rule of thumb, about one-third of the heating potential of an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide will be felt straight away, another third take around 30 years, and the last third is not fully realised for a century.

Thus there is more warming to come for the carbon dioxide already emitted, amounting to about another 0.6°C of warming. And because the rate of emissions is increasing, that figure is also increasing.

From this we can conclude that around 1.5°C of warming is locked into the system for current CO2 levels, though very large-scale carbon drawdown could reduce levels slowly over decadal time frames.

As well as long-lived CO2, there are other greenhouse gases with shorter lifetimes, particularly methane (lifetime approx. 10 years) and nitrous oxide (lifetime approx. 100 years). Because emissions of these gases are also continuing unabated, they also contribute to warming temperatures on decadal time frames.

In fact, the current level of greenhouse gases if maintained is already more than enough to produce 2°C of warming over time: in 2008 two scientists, Ramanathan and Feng, in On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead found that if greenhouse gases were maintained at their 2005 levels, the inferred warming is 2.4˚C (range 1.4˚C to 4.3˚C).

The current level of greenhouse gases is around 400 parts per million (ppm) CO2, and 470 ppm CO2 equivalent (CO2e) when other greenhouse gases are included. The last time CO2 levels were as high as they are today, humans didn't exist, and over the last 20 million years such levels are associated with major climate transitions. Tripati, Roberts et al. found that, big changes in significant climate system elements such as ice sheets, sea levels and carbon stores are likely to occur for the current level of CO2:

But the question remains as to how quickly this warming will occur, and for that we need to look at two further factors: climate sensitivity and the role of aerosols.During mid-Miocene climatic optimum [16-14 million years ago] CO2 levels were similar to today, but temperatures were ~3–6°C warmer and sea levels 25 to 40 metres higher than at present(WTF?!)… When CO2 levels were last similar to modern values (greater than 350 ppmv to 400 pmv), there was little glacial ice on land, or sea ice in the Arctic, and a marine-based ice mass on Antarctica was not viable…

 

Aerosol's Faustian bargain

Mann also indicated what level of CO2 would be consistent with 2°C of warming:
The aerosol question is central but often not well understood. Human activities also influence the greenhouse effect by releasing non-gaseous substances such as aerosols (small particles) into the atmosphere. Aerosols include black-carbon soot, organic carbon, sulphates, nitrates, as well as dust from smoke, manufacturing, windstorms, and other sources.These findings have implications for what we all must do to prevent disaster. An ECS of 3°C means that if we are to limit global warming to below 2°C forever, we need to keep CO2 concentrations far below twice pre-industrial levels, closer to 450 ppm. Ironically, if the world burns significantly less coal, that would lessen CO2 emissions but also reduce aerosols in the atmosphere that block the sun (such as sulfate particulates), so we would have to limit CO2 to below roughly 405 ppm.

Aerosols have a net cooling effect because they reduce the amount of sunlight that reaches the ground, and they increase cloud cover. This effect is popularly referred to as ‘global dimming’, because the overall aerosol impact is to reduce, or dim, the sun’s radiation, thus masking some of the effect of the increased greenhouse gas levels. This is of little comfort, however, because aerosols last only about ten days before being washed out of the atmosphere by rain; so we have to keep putting more and more into the air to maintain the temporary cooling effect.

Unfortunately, the principal source of aerosols is the burning of fossil fuels, which causes a rise in CO2 levels and global warming that lasts for many centuries. The dilemma is that if you cut the aerosols, the globe will experience a pulse of warming as their dimming effect is lost; but if you keep pouring aerosols together with CO2 into the air, you cook the planet even more in the long run. A Faustian bargain.

There has been an effort to reduce emissions from some aerosols because they cause acid rain and other forms of pollution. However, in the short term, this is warming the air as well as making it cleaner. As Mann notes above, likely reductions in coal burning in coming decades will reduce aerosol levels and boost warming

Some recent research suggest aerosol cooling is in the range of 0.5–1.2°C over the long run:

• Leon Rotstayn in The Conversation explains that "results from CSIRO climate modelling suggest that the extra warming effect from a decline in aerosols could be about 1°C by the end of the century". 
• Present-day aerosol cooling effect will be strongly reduced by 2030 as more stringent air pollution controls are implemented in Europe and worldwide, and as advanced environmental technologies come on stream. These actions are projected to increase the global temperature by 1°C and temperatures over Europe by up to 2–4°C, depending on the severity of the action. This is one of the main research outcomes of the European Integrated project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality Interaction project. 
• In 2011, NASA climate science chief James Hansen and co-authors warned that the cooling impact of aerosols appears to have been underestimated in many climate models and inferred that: "Aerosol climate forcing today is inferred to be −1.6±0.3Wm−2," which is equivalent to a cooling of about 1.2°C. In that case, they wrote, "humanity has made itself a Faustian bargain more dangerous than commonly supposed". 

 

[chubbs]

Hadley Jan - 0.686 - 2nd warmest January and 7th highest monthly anomaly ever.

2014 0.508 0.305 0.548 0.658 0.596 0.620 0.544 0.666 0.592 0.614 0.486 0.630 0.563

2014 82 82 80 81 79 80 82 83 81 82 82 83

2015 0.686 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.686

2015 84 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

[AvantHiatus]

[chubbs]

Hadley sea surface temperatures continue to run about 0.1C higher than last year.  Year-to-year comparisons become more difficult starting in March when last year's big seasonal increase began.

 

[A-L-E-K]

 

 

 

global torch

[AvantHiatus]

global torch

[The_Global_Warmer]

What's with the the denier blog nonsense abouabout NOAA and El ninos.

[wolfpackmet]

Anomalous easterly winds forecasted to end in the next few days as the WWB continues near the dateline and possibly further east.

 

Down-welling Kelvin wave continues to strengthen.  A very small +6 C contour now showing up in the subsurface.  It is only March but looking like we should surpass 2014 global temp record.

[The_Global_Warmer]

March has skyrocketed.

Global torch is on again.

Enso is looking more and more favorable for an real deal nino.

IMO any nino 1.0 or higher average from mid to late summer on 2015 will crush 2014.

And the next 2008 level Nina will be at 2011/12 global temp levels at best.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Wow Feb was a .44c on giss last year.

So far giss is +6 cumulative versus 2014. Feb will be at min 30+. So going into March giss will be around +40 higher this year over last.

That means if the rest of the year is even 2015 will be about .0325c warmer than 2014.

For me question isn't about a new record.

It's does giss have a chance to break .75c+ on the year?

[PhillipS]

As fascinating as the GIS discussion is (and it truly is) could I suggest it be moved to the Greenland melt thread since it is peripheral to the discussion of 2015 global temperatures?

[ORH_wxman]

I moved the SLR discussion to the banter thread

[The_Global_Warmer]

GISS came in at a .79C+ for February.

[donsutherland1]

GISS came in at a .79C+ for February.

Very impressive (only topped by February 1998). The past 7 months have had an average anomaly of just over +0.74°C.

[AvantHiatus]

Welcome to the new baseline.....of the rest of your lives.

 

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

checking out the anomaly, the first thing that stuck out for me was :

 

 

....then realizing a Cat 5 cane just struck there. 

 

Cat 5's in march.....interesting.