chubbs Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Hadcrut August came in at 0.74. Another record and the biggest anomaly this year. 2014 0.523 0.313 0.561 0.657 0.599 0.618 0.541 0.666 0.589 0.626 0.489 0.634 0.567 2015 0.688 0.660 0.681 0.656 0.696 0.730 0.696 0.740 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.692 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Uah 6.0 came in with a .25C cooler than August. Maybe aliens are siphoning heat off the ocean's The super Nino will only get much stronger and wider over ENSO 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Uah 6.0 came in with a .25C cooler than August. Maybe aliens are siphoning heat off the ocean's The super Nino will only get much stronger and wider over ENSO 1-3. Why does the SST graph you post show +3 ENSO SST anomalies when there no regions above 3 in reality? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Why does the SST graph you post show +3 ENSO SST anomalies when there no regions above 3 in reality? This is versus a 1971-2000 climo. 1981-2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 This is versus a 1971-2000 climo. 1981-2010. Ah....didn't notice....my bad. On another note 3.4 is exploding as we speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 NCEP reanalysis September global surface temperature anomaly (1994-2013 baseline) came in at 0.37C. Increasing by: 0.06C vs. August 2015 0.13C vs. Sept 2014 0.49C vs Sept 1997 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 6, 2015 Author Share Posted October 6, 2015 Obviously too early to say for sure, but it would not be surprising if October ends up having the highest global temperature anomaly on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Obviously too early to say for sure, but it would not be surprising if October ends up having the highest global temperature anomaly on record. That's a protected image, weatherbell reports forbidden 403 when I click it and it's a broken image in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 6, 2015 Author Share Posted October 6, 2015 That's a protected image, weatherbell reports forbidden 403 when I click it and it's a broken image in here. Ah, I thought it was on there free site. I will attempt to not post anymore. Another good source of reanalysis data is here... http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Suffocating in heat on all fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard1024 Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Obviously too early to say for sure, but it would not be surprising if October ends up having the highest global temperature anomaly on record. so now this dataset is reliable that it shows lots of warming? I thought this was a bad data set not to be used. It has been close to the UAH V6 so I wouldn't be surprised if this continues to see global sat temps spike to .5C or even more in Oct.... El Nino warming I think peaked at .8C in the satellite data april 1998. Wonder how high this one will go and if a strong La nina will kick in soon after like in 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 6, 2015 Author Share Posted October 6, 2015 so now this dataset is reliable that it shows lots of warming? I thought this was a bad data set not to be used. It has been close to the UAH V6 so I wouldn't be surprised if this continues to see global sat temps spike to .5C or even more in Oct.... El Nino warming I think peaked at .8C in the satellite data april 1998. Wonder how high this one will go and if a strong La nina will kick in soon after like in 1999. We are using it for relative short term temperatures. Of course it's not reliable for trends in the long term; As the creators explicitly mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 September Reynolds v2 SST anomaly increased by 0.06C to just under 0.4C. In 1997 the Reynolds SST anomaly increased by 0.11C between September and December peaking at 0.26C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Here is ERSST - September anomaly also just under 0.40. ERSST increased by 0.06 between September and December 1997, peaking at 0.21C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Uah 6.0 came in with a .25C cooler than August. The major temperature indices are released 7 or more days after the end of the prior month, due to quality control. How is it that UAH v6.0 is released so quickly. Is there much less quality control when it comes to UAH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 The major temperature indices are released 7 or more days after the end of the prior month, due to quality control. How is it that UAH v6.0 is released so quickly. Is there much less quality control when it comes to UAH? Both satellite datasets have always been released pretty quickly...mostly because they don't have to wait for the GHCN QC process. The surface temp datasets rely on GHCN to QC the surface data, which takes a lot longer than the satellite data. Hadcrut does even more QC than GHCN, so their data comes out almost a month later...the latest of the sfc datasets. NCDC and GISS rely almost exclusively on GHCN for land data...Hadcrut uses some GHCN data and then additional data that is not included in GHCN that they QC themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Both satellite datasets have always been released pretty quickly...mostly because they don't have to wait for the GHCN QC process. The surface temp datasets rely on GHCN to QC the surface data, which takes a lot longer than the satellite data. Hadcrut does even more QC than GHCN, so their data comes out almost a month later...the latest of the sfc datasets. NCDC and GISS rely almost exclusively on GHCN for land data...Hadcrut uses some GHCN data and then additional data that is not included in GHCN that they QC themselves. Thanks for this information. It is helpful in understanding the timing of the release of the temperature data. I was surprised to see September data so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 September Reynolds v2 SST anomaly increased by 0.06C to just under 0.4C. In 1997 the Reynolds SST anomaly increased by 0.11C between September and December peaking at 0.26C. reynoldsisstoi_v2_0-360E_90--90N_na.png Can you isolate the npac and post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Can you isolate the npac and post it Here is a rectangular lat/lon box that roughly corresponds to the npac. Link below is the source if you want to adjust the box. http://climexp.knmi.nl/select.cgi?id=someone@somewhere&field=sstoi_v2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 RSS September 0.38 - down 0.01 vs August but up 0.18 vs September 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Cfs through 8 days is almost at 0.60C for October. That's roughly a 1.25C giss temp equivalent. The daily is currently stood Around 0.63C+. October is likely going to be over 1.0C on ncdc and giss. Hadley likely in The 0.90C+ range. Global ssts are insane. The npac is OFF the ****ing charts. The "hiatus" is over. And ohc buildup has rapidly taken off. Even with a modest nina there won't be a 1999-2001 like drop from this. We will be lucky to go below 2014 levels again. Over the next 2 years expect another step jump in 30-90N yearly temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 RATPAC Temperature Data: January-September 2015: +1.00°C. The second warmest year on record on that data set was 2014 with an anomaly of +0.74°C. In terms of lower troposphere temperature anomalies excluding the surface (500 mb, 700 mb, 850 mb), the January-September 2015 figure has risen further to +0.67°C. The record warm anomaly is +0.72°C, which was set in 2010. This warmth suggests that even as the current El Niño has not yet peaked, its warmth is showing up in the lower troposphere. Finally, if one includes the surface temperatures for a broader look at the lower troposphere, the YTD anomaly for 2015 is +0.75°C vs. the record warm annual figure of +0.68°C from 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 GISS Sept - 0.81 same as August and 0.09 cooler than last year. 2014 74 51 78 79 86 66 58 82 90 86 69 79 75 74 64 81 69 81 20142015 82 88 90 74 79 77 73 81 81 **** **** **** **** *** 83 81 77 **** 2015Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 While GISS cooled 0.09C vs last year, JMA warmed by 0.15C producing the highest anomaly for any month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 14, 2015 Author Share Posted October 14, 2015 While GISS cooled 0.09C vs last year, JMA warmed by 0.15C producing the highest anomaly for any month. jmasep_wld.png Big discrepancy growing between the major surface datasets this year. HadCRUT/NCDC/JMA all seem to be a little more sensitive to ENSO probably due to missing data at the poles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Big discrepancy growing between the major surface datasets this year. HadCRUT/NCDC/JMA all seem to be a little more sensitive to ENSO probably due to missing data at the poles. Looks like Antarctica is going to swing from cool in September to warm in October - so may see a change in the short-term relative trends between the surface temperature data series. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Useful website charting NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. http://www.moyhu.org.s3.amazonaws.com/data/freq/ncep.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Uah 6.0 came in with a .25C cooler than August. Maybe aliens are siphoning heat off the ocean's The super Nino will only get much stronger and wider over ENSO 1-3. UAH 5.6: September: +0.37°C (August: +0.32°C). So far, v5.6 has had a mean anomaly of +0.30°C this year. The cooler v6.0 has had a mean anomaly of +0.23°C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Getting an El Nino fall push to higher temperatures. October likely the warmest surface temperature month ever on an anomaly basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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