chubbs Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 3-4 months after the peak (whenever that is). So maybe in late fall/early winter? Temps in 1998 and 2010 peaked in Feb-Apr looking at GISS+RSS. Yearly average temperatures peaked in 1998 and 2010 so expect 2016 to be the peak year in this ENSO cycle assuming El Nino peaks in late fall/early winter this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 I think the surface peaks a bit before the lower troposphere? The sea surface heat should increase the antecedent evaporation rate and subsequent latent heat release in the lower troposphere on a slight lag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Thanks for the responses guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 None of Roy's personal beliefs matter to this discussion. Is UAH accurate or not... Is RSS accurate or not. That's all that matters. What about STAR, Po Chedley, IUK etc.... or do the sources you read not discuss these sources for tropospheric temperature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Nino has steadied out in the strong territory. Cfs for June is about a 0.75C Giss equivalent. Thanks to a very very cold Antarctica that prevented something much higher. But ncdc doesnt do the poles so it will be higher than giss probably record breaking since global sst are at record levels. Still tho through 7 months giss will have had no months below 0.70C. With the warmest part of the year to come. And Winds are off the charts good for another kelvin wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Actually some good news for a change. http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/data-consistent-with-moderate-global-warming-says-study.html DURHAM, N.C. - A new study based on 1,000 years of temperature records suggests global warming is not progressing as fast as it would under the most severe emissions scenarios outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). "Based on our analysis, a middle-of-the-road warming scenario is more likely, at least for now," said Patrick T. Brown, a doctoral student in climatology at Duke University's Nicholas School of the Environment. "But this could change." The research, published today in the peer-reviewed journal Scientific Reports, uses empirical data, rather than the more commonly used climate models, to estimate decade-to-decade variability. No surprise...but this will drive the sensationalists crazy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 On cue! So, you deny that paper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 On cue! So, you deny that paper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 As one might expect with the strengthening El Nino, the tropics are at the highest anomaly in this current ENSO cycle (since Jan. 2014). From WXbell.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 The global temperature regime is rapidly oscillating outside of the deep tropics. It's kind of bizarre to watch. Northern Hemisphere dipped from 1.15C anomaly on July 1st down to 0.41C today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Wow...look at the Antarctic for the 1st 5 days of July: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Global temps headed back down for a bit....the calm before the storm I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Things are lining up for a super nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Yep, definitely a cool down this month globally. The current MJO is a beautiful high-amplitude beast and helping to march those westerly anomalies across the basin. We should see the subsurface respond in force in the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 UAH version 6.0 came in at +0.33 C for June. Highest anomaly in over 2 years using version 6.0. From Dr. Roy Spencer's page: http://www.drroyspencer.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted July 12, 2015 Author Share Posted July 12, 2015 Anyone have any idea why July has historically the colder anomalies (the last 25 years or so)? I can't find anything about the topic through google scholar. It's strange since August has posted some of the higher monthly anomalies during the same period. Curious if anyone has any idea/theories? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Anyone have any idea why July has historically the colder anomalies (the last 25 years or so)? I can't find anything about the topic through google scholar. It's strange since August has posted some of the higher monthly anomalies during the same period. Curious if anyone has any idea/theories? GISS zonal temperature trends by month. Looks like the arctic has the biggest impact - melting ice is capping temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted July 14, 2015 Author Share Posted July 14, 2015 GISS zonal temperature trends by month. Looks like the arctic has the biggest impact - melting ice is capping temps. julytrend.gif Awesome graph, thanks. That does make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisf97212 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 GISS zonal temperature trends by month. Looks like the arctic has the biggest impact - melting ice is capping temps. julytrend.gif I would have guessed larger Hadley Cells until I saw that graph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 JMA put June at warmest on record, +0.76 C the 20th century baseline. Also read this interesting blogpost from Dr. Sobel. Talks about the extreme state of the Pacific and record MJO thanks to the warm Pacific, some of that related to ENSO. Increasing MJO and AAM in the future will lead to further warming of the poles http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2015/07/14/the-extreme-pacific-climate-now/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 GISS came in at 0.76 tying 1998 for the warmest June. GISS switched to ERSST v4 with this update. Chart below shows global temperatures for v4 minus v3b. There are a couple of peaks and valleys but overall temperatures are higher at the beginning and end of the series and lower in the middle with v4. Like the NOAA series, the relative warming in v4 relative to v3b over the past 10 years reduces the magnitude of the "hiatus" but there is very little change in warming over the entire series since 1880. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 2015 ranks as the warmest January-June on record. The five warmest figures are: 1. 0.802°C, 2015 (1.96 standard deviations above the January-June 1981-2010 mean) 2. 0.795°C, 2010 3. 0.742°C, 2007 4. 0.735°C, 2014 5. 0.695°C, 2002 The five warmest years on record are: 1. 0.755°C, 2014 2. 0.725°C, 2010 3. 0.697°C, 2005 4. 0.668°C, 2007 and 2013 5. 0.657°C, 2009 Finally, the following change in the dataset became effective with the current report (all prior data was re-calibrated for the change): July 15, 2015: Starting with today's update, the standard GISS analysis is no longer based on ERSST v3b but on the newer ERSST v4. Dr. Makiko Sato created some graphs and maps showing the effect of that change. More information may be obtained from NOAA's website. Furthermore, we eliminated GHCN's Amundsen-Scott temperature series using just the SCAR reports for the South Pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 To make a note, this is the third SST series that GISS has used since January 2013 when they switched from OISSTv2 to ERSSTv3. I am actually a bit surprised they flipped to ERSSTv4 this soon considering there is still quite a bit of debate of their findings...at odds with the Hadley team findings with buoy adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Why did they switch from OISST to ERSST anyway? That has always confused me, and I think it really reduces the value of GISS. The ERSST4 dataset is largely based on buoys and ship intake measurements, and a lot of the buoy data is homogenized to the ship data, and visa versa. I don't like the fact that the ship intake data was never designed for aggregation and the measuring climate change. The variations in engine design and subsequent contamination potential is just too large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Why did they switch from OISST to ERSST anyway? That has always confused me, and I think it really reduces the value of GISS. The ERSST4 dataset is largely based on buoys and ship intake measurements, and a lot of the buoy data is homogenized to the ship data, and visa versa. I don't like the fact that the ship intake data was never designed for aggregation and the measuring climate change. The variations in engine design and subsequent contamination potential is just too large. Since it doesn't actually change the trend at all, it doesn't matter, and your post is pure hyperbole and denier tactics. All it shows is the results are robust no matter what method is used. We can leave the oceans out entirely and use only the best 80 land based measurements since 1900 and corroborate the GISS results (actually a bit more warming since warming has been strongest on land). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Since it doesn't actually change the trend at all, it doesn't matter, and your post is pure hyperbole and denier tactics. You're the one using hyperbole and ad-hominem rhetoric to make a non-existent point. Kudos on trying to sneak that in, though. All it shows is the results are robust no matter what method is used. Robust how? The 2000-2014 trend on ERSST4 is now .058C/decade higher than it was on ERSST3. That's on par with the UAHv6 upgrade as far as magnitude is concerned. It's a semantical difference, but it's on the same magnitude as other adjustments that have come under scrutiny here from you and others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Why did they switch from OISST to ERSST anyway? That has always confused me, and I think it really reduces the value of GISS. The ERSST4 dataset is largely based on buoys and ship intake measurements, and a lot of the buoy data is homogenized to the ship data, and visa versa. I don't like the fact that the ship intake data was never designed for aggregation and the measuring climate change. The variations in engine design and subsequent contamination potential is just too large. Large diesel engines of the era (most of which are still around) all have water intakes of the same basic design -- via a mechanically operated raw water pump connected to a sea chest, which is then piped up to a heat exchanger to cool off the fresh water in the main pump system of the engine. There's limited potential for contamination there that can't be corrected for. A bigger source is the actual thermometers used, which usually have a coarser reading scale than ones used for scientific data. Anyways, here's a paper covering some of that: http://www.ocean-sci.net/9/683/2013/os-9-683-2013.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Updated GISS series over the satellite period. Blue dots are monthly values - red line is 12-month running average. Linear warming trend over this period with updated series is 0.163 per decade vs 0.158 previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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