AvantHiatus Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 Historically, summer is the season less effected by ENSO. This year, we actually have a moderate event early. Barring a major volcanic event, this summer will almost certainly break the JJA record. Indeed, these projections are based on the 1970-2000 baseline so we would be approaching HCO/Early Eemian temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 Historically, summer is the season less affected by ENSO. This year, we actually have a moderate event early. Barring a major volcanic event, this summer will almost certainly break the JJA record. It's almost a given that 2015 will be a record setting year...unless something really unusual & strange takes place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 That 0.90C is roughly a 0.60C CFS equiv. Which is a 1.15C giss equiv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 Global ssts are going to be a record for May. Likely top 3 historically. June will likely be the warmest on record. Has will likely best tha . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 Everyone remember last June? Temps fell off a cliff, yet another indicator of the divergence from 2014 across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 Indeed, these projections are based on the 1970-2000 baseline so we would be approaching HCO/Early Eemian temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. No, we're not quite there yet. Add another 0.5K and we've hit the HCO. We probably have another 20-30yrs to go before we hit the HCO. The Eemian optimum is about 1.5K away, so that'll probably be reached between 2060 and 2075. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 No, we're not quite there yet. Add another 0.5K and we've hit the HCO. We probably have another 20-30yrs to go before we hit the HCO. The Eemian optimum is about 1.5K away, so that'll probably be reached between 2060 and 2075. Agree to disagree here but when we hit those benchmarks, tipping points will surely follow. One has to accept that knowing what the temperature will be in 2060 is impossible right now. Only a range of values can be derived. The rate of warming won't be constant. Do you agree or disagree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 RSS first to report for May - ticked up to 0.31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted June 3, 2015 Author Share Posted June 3, 2015 Equatorial Pacific OHC is back on the rise. The atmosphere appears coupled and primed to sustain a moderate to strong nino until the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 EL Nino is raging and global temps have responded. June is starting on fire. 0.75C is in the bank. Will it go 0.85C+? The Nino is massive. This is a major that might go super. But overall its a massive event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Fire hose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 UAH jumped to 0.27C. Can someone post the V5.6 anomaly for May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Mediterranean torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Global ssta for May are the 2nd most anamolous on record only 0.01C below August 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Global ssta for May are the 2nd most anamolous on record only 0.01C below August 2014 HADSST following similar pattern as last year - roughly 0.2C increase in global SST over past 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 UAH jumped to 0.27C. Can someone post the V5.6 anomaly for May. I misunderstood in thinking they were going to continue V5.6 numbers but it doesn't look like the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Weatherbell CFS is running at c a 0.83-0.85C giss equivalent for June. Yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Weatherbell CFS is running at c a 0.83-0.85C giss equivalent for June. Yeah. Antarctica is tanking like crazy, while the Northern Hemisphere is at like 1.10C GISS equivalent. Kind of aggitates me, makes you wonder if GISS average is the best measurement of AGW locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 I misunderstood in thinking they were going to continue V5.6 numbers but it doesn't look like the case. They are still available at the link below - 0.32 for May vs 0.27 for v6 http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 They are still available at the link below - 0.32 for May vs 0.27 for v6 http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt Thanks for the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted June 15, 2015 Author Share Posted June 15, 2015 GISS is out for May. .71C above the 1951-1980 average. No major revisions for the year otherwise with this update. So far, through May, the dataset has averaged a 0.765. It's seems fairly likely the rest of the year may be warmer than this tally given the blossoming nino. For the record, every month has been above 0.7C this year thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 GISS is out for May. .71C above the 1951-1980 average. No major revisions for the year otherwise with this update. So far, through May, the dataset has averaged a 0.765. It's seems fairly likely the rest of the year may be warmer than this tally given the blossoming nino. For the record, every month has been above 0.7C this year thus far. Until they revise it down in a few months/years.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted June 15, 2015 Author Share Posted June 15, 2015 Until they revise it down in a few months/years.... Can't take the heat LEK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 It's funny how revisions to GISS have simple logical justifications that have been empirically tested and passed through extensive peer-review, but some here are willing to swallow UAH v6 with no questions, despite any real justification for how this is an improvement over v5.6 and no peer-review. Never-mind the fact that it was produced by a conservative evangelist who believes AGW somehow runs contrary to his god and politics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Until they revise it down in a few months/years.... Wait, I thought that scientists only revise temperature data upwards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 It's funny how revisions to GISS have simple logical justifications that have been empirically tested and passed through extensive peer-review, but some here are willing to swallow UAH v6 with no questions, despite any real justification for how this is an improvement over v5.6 and no peer-review. Never-mind the fact that it was produced by a conservative evangelist who believes AGW somehow runs contrary to his god and politics. Is there really in reason for that? Roy Spencer doesn't believe that AGW runs contrary to his God & politics. I'd put his honesty & integrity against the likes of Gavin Schmidt & Michael Mann any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 JAMSTEC JUNE UPDATE: CFS v.2 has backed off a tad & the JAMSTEC is stronger than May. So they both are in decent agreement now....STRONG EL NINO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 Is there really in reason for that? Roy Spencer doesn't believe that AGW runs contrary to his God & politics. I'd put his honesty & integrity against the likes of Gavin Schmidt & Michael Mann any day. Gavin Schmidt is the director of the Goddard Institute of Space Studies, a highly respected branch of NASA. Roy Spencer is some professor at a University.. Let's just assume that both have good intentions. We just know that Roy Spencer has been wrong many many times. There's really no contest in terms of qualiifications and testable statements by both men. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Gavin Schmidt is the director of the Goddard Institute of Space Studies, a highly respected branch of NASA. Roy Spencer is some professor at a University.. Let's just assume that both have good intentions. We just know that Roy Spencer has been wrong many many times. There's really no contest in terms of qualiifications and testable statements by both men. Um....ok. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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