2015 Global Temperatures

[StudentOfClimatology]

I'm a very detail-oriented person. I care about stuff like that, call me crazy if you want.

[chubbs]

Here is UAH6 minus GISS. UAH6 has cooled steadily vs GISS modulated by ENSO. The warming influence of the 1998 super nino  on UAH6 appears to extend for several years so the recent lack of moderate/strong ninos may be contributing to the satellite cooling trend relative to surface temperatures. The current El Nino hasn't had any discernible warming impact so far on UAH6 relative to GISS. Will be interesting to see the response this year if el nino continues to strengthen.

[nflwxman]

Here is UAH6 minus GISS. UAH6 has cooled steadily vs GISS modulated by ENSO. The warming influence of the 1998 super nino  on UAH6 appears to extend for several years so the recent lack of moderate/strong ninos may be contributing to the satellite cooling trend relative to surface temperatures. The current El Nino hasn't had any discernible warming impact so far on UAH6 relative to GISS. Will be interesting to see the response this year if el nino continues to strengthen.

uah6-giss.png

The consistency of that drift is some what a knock against UAH.  It seems almost too steady among the annual noise.  It kind of looks a bit like the PDO trend over the past 30 years though.

[nflwxman]

Does anyone know where I can find good SSTa graphs?  I'd like to track the upcoming moderate/strong nino.

[Isotherm]

It's interesting reading some of the posts from last spring discussing the possibility of a strong / super Nino, largely based upon very warm sub surface temperatures and highly reactive model guidance such as the CFS. Similar situation this spring: CFS going haywire with the intensity of this El Nino event, very warm sub-surface temperatures, and many people thinking that a strong El Nino's on our doorstep. While it is still early in the game (I like to see where we stand about 1-2 months from now), historically and statistically speaking, the probability of a strong el Nino event is fairly low. The "super Nino" events tend not to be double-Nino's (1972,1982,1997, etc.), while Nino events that are weak in intensity for the first year are almost always weak or moderate for the second year.

 

1952-53: Weak +ENSO

1953-54: Weak +ENSO

 

1968-69: Weak-Mod +ENSO

1969-70: Weak +ENSO

 

1976-77: Weak +ENSO

1977-78: Weak +ENSO

 

Unfortunately the sample size since 1950 isn't great, but the double Nino's with a first year weak +ENSO generally do not produce strong second year Nino's.

 

If we examine the last -PDO era, the frequency of strong +ENSO events was such that the separation between the events was approximately 6-7 years (57-58, 65-66, 72-73). The last strong El Nino of this -PDO cycle occurred in 2009-10, about 5 years ago. The strong +ENSO separation of the prior -PDO era argues against another strong El Nino this year.

 

SOI values thus far have not been indicative of the onset of strong / super El Nino either. Years like 72/82/97 featured the initiation of strong -SOI dailies around this time of the spring, as pressures increased substantially near Australia. We should be seeing a strong response within the next several weeks if a super Nino's going to occur.

 

With that being said, I do believe this +ENSO event has legs, and the current SSTA profile depicts a basin-wide Nino. Right now I like a compromise between the statistical and dynamical guidance, which would put us around a +1.2/+1.3c trimonthly peak in region 3.4. My guess is the Nino event matures in the autumn and begins to fade during the winter. A strong Nino obviously can't be ruled out, but historically, I think the backdrop of the negative PDO should prevent a second strong Nino within 5-6 years. Super Nino's like 72-82-97 are usually stand alone events and not double-year in nature. Usually Weak and Moderate El Nino's occur in the double type of events. We'll see how this one progresses over the next couple months, but at this juncture I'd say everything's coming together for a basin wide moderate El Nino, which should aid California's severe drought beginning this summer and into the fall. I will say with a fair amount of confidence that the CFS idea of a raging Nino > +2.0c is highly unlikely to verify, much like last year.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Does anyone know where I can find good SSTa graphs? I'd like to track the upcoming moderate/strong nino.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/1459-global-sst-maps/

[GaWx]

^Iso,

Good post.

Going back to before 1950: after a mainly weak to low end moderate Niño in 1939-40/1904-5/1895-6, 1940-1/1905-6/1896-7 were all three on the stronger side. The 1876-7/1877-8 couplet may also be in the same category. OTOH, the 1913-4/1914-5 and 1884-5/1885-6 couplets consisted of back to back Nino's on the weaker side.

So if I include 1876-7/1877-8 as well as the three couplets since 1950, I get five double weaks and four weak/strong couplets fwiw.

[Isotherm]

^Iso,

Good post.

Going back to before 1950: after a mainly weak to low end moderate Niño in 1939-40/1904-5/1895-6, 1940-1/1905-6/1896-7 were all three on the stronger side. The 1876-7/1877-8 couplet may also be in the same category. OTOH, the 1913-4/1914-5 and 1884-5/1885-6 couplets consisted of back to back Nino's on the weaker side.

So if I include 1876-7/1877-8 as well as the three couplets since 1950, I get five double weaks and four weak/strong couplets fwiw.

 

Gawx, thanks; interesting info. Can you link that data? What were the trimonthly peaks for those second year stronger events?

[GaWx]

Gawx, thanks; interesting info. Can you link that data? What were the trimonthly peaks for those second year stronger events?

 

Isotherm,

 Nino 3.4..look at 2nd table in here:

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/TNI_N34/

 

 I look at these 3.4 anomalies as very good guidelines as opposed to exact indications. I do think the 3.4's are somewhat overdone in some of these Nino's. However, even after taking that into account, it is pretty clear that there were four rather strong to very strong 2nd year Nino's in 1877-8, 1896-7, 1905-6, and 1940-1. In fact, an argument could even be made to also include 1888-9 if one were to call 1887-8 a weak Nino, something I'm not sure is the best call due to the late start and perceived tendency to overdo some Nino warm anomalies. If that were included, we'd then be at 5-5 imo.

 

Supplemental data to support the Nino 3.4 table:

 

a. JMA (won't match exactly since JMA region not same as 3.4 but jibes well enough to give me confidence):

ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5

 

b. Monthly SOI's:

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soidatafiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt

[skierinvermont]

It's interesting reading some of the posts from last spring discussing the possibility of a strong / super Nino, largely based upon very warm sub surface temperatures and highly reactive model guidance such as the CFS. Similar situation this spring: CFS going haywire with the intensity of this El Nino event, very warm sub-surface temperatures, and many people thinking that a strong El Nino's on our doorstep. While it is still early in the game (I like to see where we stand about 1-2 months from now), historically and statistically speaking, the probability of a strong el Nino event is fairly low. The "super Nino" events tend not to be double-Nino's (1972,1982,1997, etc.), while Nino events that are weak in intensity for the first year are almost always weak or moderate for the second year.

 

1952-53: Weak +ENSO

1953-54: Weak +ENSO

 

1968-69: Weak-Mod +ENSO

1969-70: Weak +ENSO

 

1976-77: Weak +ENSO

1977-78: Weak +ENSO

 

Unfortunately the sample size since 1950 isn't great, but the double Nino's with a first year weak +ENSO generally do not produce strong second year Nino's.

 

If we examine the last -PDO era, the frequency of strong +ENSO events was such that the separation between the events was approximately 6-7 years (57-58, 65-66, 72-73). The last strong El Nino of this -PDO cycle occurred in 2009-10, about 5 years ago. The strong +ENSO separation of the prior -PDO era argues against another strong El Nino this year.

 

SOI values thus far have not been indicative of the onset of strong / super El Nino either. Years like 72/82/97 featured the initiation of strong -SOI dailies around this time of the spring, as pressures increased substantially near Australia. We should be seeing a strong response within the next several weeks if a super Nino's going to occur.

 

With that being said, I do believe this +ENSO event has legs, and the current SSTA profile depicts a basin-wide Nino. Right now I like a compromise between the statistical and dynamical guidance, which would put us around a +1.2/+1.3c trimonthly peak in region 3.4. My guess is the Nino event matures in the autumn and begins to fade during the winter. A strong Nino obviously can't be ruled out, but historically, I think the backdrop of the negative PDO should prevent a second strong Nino within 5-6 years. Super Nino's like 72-82-97 are usually stand alone events and not double-year in nature. Usually Weak and Moderate El Nino's occur in the double type of events. We'll see how this one progresses over the next couple months, but at this juncture I'd say everything's coming together for a basin wide moderate El Nino, which should aid California's severe drought beginning this summer and into the fall. I will say with a fair amount of confidence that the CFS idea of a raging Nino > +2.0c is highly unlikely to verify, much like last year.

 

Are we still in a -PDO era? The PDO has been positive longer than any time in the last -PDO phase, and looks to continue for the foreseeable future. 

[SVT450R]

Are we still in a -PDO era? The PDO has been positive longer than any time in the last -PDO phase, and looks to continue for the foreseeable future. 

I believe it's to early to call off -PDO regime as we did see this in the 50s to a degree during a -PDO regime and shouldn't expect things to be a carbon copy of the past IMO.

[ORH_wxman]

It's possible we are out of the -PDO decadal phase...but I think it is too early to tell just based on our current streak. Some argue that our current -PDO started in 1998-1999...and if that is the case, then we've already had a far more impressive +PDO spike than the current one....from 2002 to 2005, we had 26 consecutive +PDO months and a 36 out of 39 month stretch that was positive.

 

If you don't count that stretch as being in the most recent -PDO decadal phase (and only start it in 2007), then you still have an impressive stretch in the mid-20th century -PDO phase in 1957-1960 which included a stretch of 18 out of 21 +PDO months and 28 out of 37. But it is hard to compare PDO cycles because they aren't all the same magnitude or even the same length. There definitely seems to be an oscillatory behavior, but there aren't rigid rules in that behavior.

 

I'm not sure I would base nuances in ENSO forecasts on the assumption that we are still in a -PDO decadal phase either.

[Isotherm]

Isotherm,

 Nino 3.4..look at 2nd table in here:

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/TNI_N34/

 

 I look at these 3.4 anomalies as very good guidelines as opposed to exact indications. I do think the 3.4's are somewhat overdone in some of these Nino's. However, even after taking that into account, it is pretty clear that there were four rather strong to very strong 2nd year Nino's in 1877-8, 1896-7, 1905-6, and 1940-1. In fact, an argument could even be made to also include 1888-9 if one were to call 1887-8 a weak Nino, something I'm not sure is the best call due to the late start and perceived tendency to overdo some Nino warm anomalies. If that were included, we'd then be at 5-5 imo.

 

Supplemental data to support the Nino 3.4 table:

 

a. JMA (won't match exactly since JMA region not same as 3.4 but jibes well enough to give me confidence):

ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5

 

b. Monthly SOI's:

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soidatafiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt

 

 

Gawx - great info. Looking at the years you mentioned, 1904 and 1939 were both first year moderate el nino's, stronger than this past winter. However, 1895 and 1876 both appear to be weak followed by strong Nino events. Nonetheless, that extended sample size now tells me that no conclusive statements can be made (yet) as far as a strong +ENSO for the upcoming year. While it's been a long time, we have had strong Nino's immediately following weak Nino's. We'll have to see how things transpire w/ SOI and WWB's over the next couple months.

[Isotherm]

Are we still in a -PDO era? The PDO has been positive longer than any time in the last -PDO phase, and looks to continue for the foreseeable future. 

 

 

It hasn't actually. The PDO was predominately negative in 2013, and didn't flip mostly positive until the beginning of 2014. We've had about 1.5 consecutive years of +PDO thus far. Most of the 1957-1960 three year period featured +PDO conditions. So we'd have to go at least another year to approach that period's duration.

 

I'm also of the opinion that the true transition from +PDO to -PDO occurred in 2007.

[ORH_wxman]

I moved all the speculative crap about the PDO/AMO into the banter thread

[The_Global_Warmer]

What's going on East of Asia?

The cold pool is vanishing.

I wish we had weekly data.

It has to be at or above record's for this time of year.

[chubbs]

It hasn't actually. The PDO was predominately negative in 2013, and didn't flip mostly positive until the beginning of 2014. We've had about 1.5 consecutive years of +PDO thus far. Most of the 1957-1960 three year period featured +PDO conditions. So we'd have to go at least another year to approach that period's duration.

 

I'm also of the opinion that the true transition from +PDO to -PDO occurred in 2007.

 

This PDO cycle may behave differently than the previous one though. In any case hard to see how -PDO has any influence on the 2015 ENSO when current conditions are +PDO

[skierinvermont]

It hasn't actually. The PDO was predominately negative in 2013, and didn't flip mostly positive until the beginning of 2014. We've had about 1.5 consecutive years of +PDO thus far. Most of the 1957-1960 three year period featured +PDO conditions. So we'd have to go at least another year to approach that period's duration.

 

I'm also of the opinion that the true transition from +PDO to -PDO occurred in 2007.

 

1959 only had 6 months +PDO. 1957 and 1960 both only had 7 months +PDO and some of those were barely positive. That's a sharp contrast from our current situation with 14 months straight of +PDO, averaging like +1.5 for that period. The longest streak 1957-1960 was only 10 months and the magnitude was half of our 14+ month streak.

[csnavywx]

1959 only had 6 months +PDO. 1957 and 1960 both only had 7 months +PDO and some of those were barely positive. That's a sharp contrast from our current situation with 14 months straight of +PDO, averaging like +1.5 for that period. The longest streak 1957-1960 was only 10 months and the magnitude was half of our 14+ month streak.

Yes, it was at or near record highs during the winter and is still strongly positive. Of course, if we get a very strong Nino, it will probably slingshot to a strong Nina and help flip the signature back to -PDO in short order.

 

I know this has been stated before about the PDO, but the steady cyclical behavior of the 20th century is far from a guarantee. Proxy data before that period indicates a much more irregular pattern. There's little reason to expect it to remain on a ~30 year cycle as it has been recently, especially in an inhomogeneously warming world.

 

In fact, there were a couple of papers recently that kind of tie in with extreme ENSO events. The result of the model experiments was a drastic increase in extreme La Nina and extreme El Nino events. Interestingly, 75% of the extreme La Nina increase was related to the increase in extreme El Nino frequency. Since extreme amplitude ENSO events rarely occur outside a matching phase of the PDO....

[chubbs]

HADSST jumped up to 0.557 in April keeping 2015 SST well above 2014.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst3/data/HadSST.3.1.1.0/diagnostics/HadSST.3.1.1.0_monthly_globe_ts.txt

[SVT450R]

Here is a overlay i did of the old version 5.6 to the new version 6.0

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
v5.6
2015 1 +0.351 +0.553 +0.150 +0.126
2015 2 +0.296 +0.433 +0.160 +0.015
2015 3 +0.257 +0.409 +0.105 +0.083
2015 4 +0.162 +0.337 -0.013 +0.074
v6.0
2015 1 +0.261 +0.379 +0.143 +0.119
2015 2 +0.157 +0.263 +0.050 -0.074
2015 3 +0.139 +0.232 +0.046 +0.022
2015 4 +0.065 +0.154 -0.024 +0.074

[nflwxman]

HADSST jumped up to 0.557 in April keeping 2015 SST well above 2014.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst3/data/HadSST.3.1.1.0/diagnostics/HadSST.3.1.1.0_monthly_globe_ts.txt

hadsstapr.png

Wow.  Oceans are really playing catch up from the last decade of the -PDO.  With a looming Nino, this summer will break the SSTa record by more than last year, I'd imagine.

[AvantHiatus]

It's a brainwash machine. Don't look at it.

[Isotherm]

1959 only had 6 months +PDO. 1957 and 1960 both only had 7 months +PDO and some of those were barely positive. That's a sharp contrast from our current situation with 14 months straight of +PDO, averaging like +1.5 for that period. The longest streak 1957-1960 was only 10 months and the magnitude was half of our 14+ month streak.

 

 

The PDO reached +1.76 in 1957; that's very strong. The last several months have seen a more persistent strongly positive PDO, but again, PDO cycles are not identical. The point is that we had a fairly prolonged period with predominately positive PDO values in the 1957-1960 period of the prior -PDO era, so 1 year of +PDO is not unusual right now. By the middle of this summer we'll have 1.5 years of +PDO, and remember that 50% of 2014 was spent with PDO values < +1.

 

The PDO could very well be negative by this time next year, or even earlier, depending upon how quickly the Nino event collapses.

[nflwxman]

The strong WWB pattern associated with the developing El Nino represents

a dramatic reversal for a least March and April of the anomalous trade

wind pattern which dominated the 1998-2014 hiatus era.

 

WND.png

Thanks Bluewave.  When is that updated to?  April?  

 

Looks like the surface heater is being turned back on in a big way. I'd expect deep ocean warming to slow and 0-100m OHC to increase if this is a phase shift.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Backup is in full swing.

[skierinvermont]

The PDO reached +1.76 in 1957; that's very strong. The last several months have seen a more persistent strongly positive PDO, but again, PDO cycles are not identical. The point is that we had a fairly prolonged period with predominately positive PDO values in the 1957-1960 period of the prior -PDO era, so 1 year of +PDO is not unusual right now. By the middle of this summer we'll have 1.5 years of +PDO, and remember that 50% of 2014 was spent with PDO values < +1.

 

The PDO could very well be negative by this time next year, or even earlier, depending upon how quickly the Nino event collapses.

 

The bolded is my point exactly, except I would go stronger and say they may not even be at all similar or even 'cyclical' at all. 

 

More like self-reinforcing phases of varying lengths. A major break in the phase could be enough to push it into the other phase. 

 

The PDO the last 14 months has been more positive than any 14 month streak in the last -PDO period. As bluewave's post showed, the zonal winds the last two months were weaker than any time except one in the last -PDO, and a sharp reversal from the last 15 years. It's uncharted territory. Something is changing and it may be self-reinforcing.

[chubbs]

We are currently in a weak global wind regime. Below is the satellite derived wind anomaly between 60N and 60S and between 20N and 20S. Global and tropical winds were relatively strong during the hiatus but have been relatively weak for the past 2 years. This has likely  contributed to the relatively rapid warming of the global ocean surface during this period.

 

ftp://ftp.remss.com/wind/monthly_1deg/

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

We are currently in a weak global wind regime. Below is the satellite derived wind anomaly between 60N and 60S and between 20N and 20S. Global and tropical winds were relatively strong during the hiatus but have been relatively weak for the past 2 years. This has likely contributed to the relatively rapid warming of the global ocean surface during this period.

ftp://ftp.remss.com/wind/monthly_1deg/

rsswind.png

Agreed. This would also reduce the latent heat flux into the lower troposphere, via reduced surface evaporation and reduced convective transport.

This explains why the surface is running warmer than the lower troposphere for the time being.

[chrisf97212]

Agreed. This would also reduce the latent heat flux into the lower troposphere, via reduced surface evaporation and reduced convective transport.

This explains why the surface is running warmer than the lower troposphere for the time being.

 

I don't understand this.  Surface evaporation would absorb heat.