2015 Global Temperatures

[wolfpackmet]

CFS dailies at warmest level of the last 13 months, ~+0.40 C.  Tropics have warmed quite a bit over the last month.

[nflwxman]

Too much emphasis on tropical warming relative to what?  

I think what he is saying is because HadCrut4 has little spatial coverage at the poles (~8-10% of the earth) it "unfairly" weighs the impact of tropical forcing on the overall global temperature.  Given that the arctic has warmed faster than the rest of the planet, there is some merit to that argument scientifically.  Cowtan and Way 2014 attempted to infill much of that missing data and increased the 1998-2012 warming rate from 0.05 C/decade to 0.11 C/decade.  However, this is clearly the issue with short term over analysis of climate data.  Missing the forest for the trees.

[StudentOfClimatology]

I think what he is saying is because HadCrut4 has little spatial coverage at the poles (~8-10% of the earth) it "unfairly" weighs the impact of tropical forcing on the overall global temperature. Given that the arctic has warmed faster than the rest of the planet, there is some merit to that argument scientifically. Cowtan and Way 2014 attempted to infill much of that missing data and increased the 1998-2012 warming rate from 0.05 C/decade to 0.11 C/decade. However, this is clearly the issue with short term over analysis of climate data. Missing the forest for the trees.

Even when infilling the Arctic with UAH data, there's not much change because the "pause" has affected the Arctic as well..no statistically significant warming there since 2004. Cowtan/Way do a bunch of other stuff to the data that I don't necessarily agree with.

[AvantHiatus]

What does that even mean? NCDC looks the same. It's called data.

 

NCDC also shows the apparent clustering above the baseline, altho not at the same intensity (positive anomaly) as GISS. Face it man, we've moved into new territory. This February could be the warmest on record.

[StudentOfClimatology]

NCDC also shows the apparent clustering above the baseline, altho not at the same intensity (positive anomaly) as GISS. Face it man, we've moved into new territory. This February could be the warmest on record.

If you want to make predictions like that, go ahead. I'm going to wait until we see something statistically significant.

[Jonger]

NCDC also shows the apparent clustering above the baseline, altho not at the same intensity (positive anomaly) as GISS. Face it man, we've moved into new territory. This February could be the warmest on record.

 

 

I just don't see any new baseline... I see a hiatus. If the last 15~ months extends into 36 months... I might start thinking we stepped up though.

[chubbs]

 

I just don't see any new baseline... I see a hiatus. If the last 15~ months extends into 36 months... I might start thinking we stepped up though.

 There is no baseline - only a long-term trendline and the "hiatus"  hasn't been long enough or deep enough to change it significantly. Headed for the upper end of the variability band this year.

 

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2015/01/20/its-the-trend-stupid-3/#more-7304

 

[nflwxman]

The "baseline" conversation is likely not fruitful because it's somewhat arbitrary.  The current warming we are seeing is all part of the plan and nobody should be surprised.  As long as we stay in ENSO neutral to El Nino conditions, the "rapid" warming since 2011 should continue.  The true argument of ECS and TCR can not be resolved on timescales as short as 1998-Present, or anything of the like.  As we go through a -PDO multi-decadal phase, the nature of the true TCR should become more apparent. 

 

2014 was a record warm year because it was no longer stunted by the same factors that impacted 2008-2013.  2015 is likely to surpass 2014 for the same reason.

 

PS Chubbs..your graph above looks a bit off..it shows 2014 as cooler than 2005.

[AvantHiatus]

The "baseline" conversation is likely not fruitful because it's somewhat arbitrary.  The current warming we are seeing is all part of the plan and nobody should be surprised.  As long as we stay in ENSO neutral to El Nino conditions, the "rapid" warming since 2011 should continue.  The true argument of ECS and TCR can not be resolved on timescales as short as 1998-Present, or anything of the like.  As we go through a -PDO multi-decadal phase, the nature of the true TCR should become more apparent. 

 

2014 was a record warm year because it was no longer stunted by the same factors that impact 2008-2013.  2015 is likely to surpass 2014 for the same reason.

 

PS Chubbs..your graph above looks a bit off..it shows 2014 as cooler than 2005.

Yeah, definitely not right. Tho upon further review, it is an illusion. 2014 came in 0.01C higher than 2005 on GISS. NCDC is slightly more divergent from other years. Either way I suspect the main warming pulse comes in 2015.

 

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/

 

Insane, I think 0.85C would be the highest daily CFS departure ever to date.

[chrisf97212]

 

I just don't see any new baseline... I see a hiatus. If the last 15~ months extends into 36 months... I might start thinking we stepped up though.

 

A new record by .01C, which is within the margin of error, is not a step up in my mind.

[AvantHiatus]

A new record by .01C, which is within the margin of error, is not a step up in my mind.

Let me elaborate on the step-up. In past years we would see greater month-to-month variability. The last 4 months have been relatively stable and warm and this looks to continue. If true, we will no longer see any months below 0.70C.

 

NCDC is 0.04C warmer than the previous record. 2014's calling card was reaching record warmth without much help from the tropics.

[chrisf97212]

Let me elaborate on the step-up. In past years we would see greater month-to-month variability. The last 4 months have been relatively stable and warm and this looks to continue. If true, we will no longer see any months below 0.70C.

 

NCDC is 0.04C warmer than the previous record. 2014's calling card was reaching record warmth without much help from the tropics.

 

Ok, I get your point on the step-up.

 

I disagree on the tropics part.  The SST's led the way on temps last year, nurtured by the record Hadley cells, decrease in trade winds, and lower tropical cloud cover.

[AvantHiatus]

Ok, I get your point on the step-up.

 

I disagree on the tropics part.  The SST's led the way on temps last year, nurtured by the record Hadley cells, decrease in trade winds, and lower tropical cloud cover.

The greatest SSTA has been located above 30N, especially the first half of 2014. On the flip-side, this doesn't say much about warming contribution. It just wasn't a typical ENSO-heated year.

[nflwxman]

Unless there is a significant cool off impending.  Feb 2015 will likely break the record.

 

[wolfpackmet]

Will be impressive if we break the 1998 February GISS record.  The warmest monthly anomaly in the 1997-1998 "super" El Nino cycle.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I was most certainly not expecting that when I checked this morning.  Last time I looked it was around 0C.

 

 

 

[wolfpackmet]

February ECMWF NIno plumes keep El Nino going into at least this spring.  Nino 3.4 near moderate range for MAM. 

 

 

Plumes had a decent 3-4 month forecast last February but over did it just like other dynamic models into the summer.

[chubbs]

GISS January came in at 0.75. Year-over-year warming continues.

Big jump coming in February.

2013 61 52 59 47 55 60 52 61 72 60 76 61 60 59

2014 68 44 70 71 78 61 50 74 81 78 64 73 68 67

2015 75 **** **** **** **** **** **** **** **** **** **** **** **** ***

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N

[AvantHiatus]

Mindblown, crazy for February standards. GISS 0.85c equivalent.

 

[A-L-E-K]

heck of a global torch

[skierinvermont]

If the ECMWF 3-4 month plumes are as accurate as last year, this year will be a torch and blow away all the records. Even at the low side, .9C for an ONI, would make for a record breaking year.

 

 

I wonder if this is all part of a new +PDO phase developing?

[nflwxman]

If the ECMWF 3-4 month plumes are as accurate as last year, this year will be a torch and blow away all the records. Even at the low side, .9C for an ONI, would make for a record breaking year.

I wonder if this is all part of a new +PDO phase developing?

Was wondering the same thing about the PDO skier. A smoothed five year mean shows we are still below -0.5 on the PDO index. It's quickly rising, but i'd like to see it stay over 0 for a few years before declaring a phase shift.

I agree 2015 has a high chance (>50%) of breaking the global temp record.

[AvantHiatus]

In hindsight, we are beginning to push farther into the unstable zone outlined by the IPCC. The future is now. 

 

As a result, i'm not surprised to see 2015 likely come in record warm. The red meat of the total warming attributable to AGW remains inside the pipeline.

[Isotherm]

ENSO statistical and dynamical models generally indicate the maintenance of a weak Nino through the warm season. However, I don't like to make any ENSO predictions until later in spring for the coming year. The next several months tend to have quite a bit of variance.

 

 

[Isotherm]

I highly doubt this is a PDO phase shift. We can see periodic 1-2 year spikes (declines) in the PDO during cold (warm) cycles. The late 1950's featured a 2+ year period from 1957-59 with predominately positive to occasionally strongly positive PDO conditions. My guess right now is that we'll continue w/ the +PDO through the rest of 2015, have another weak warm ENSO event next winter, then begin the PDO decline back into persistent negative for awhile in the first half of 2016.

[Kelathos]

From an uneducated perspective, the PDO really seems to dictate increasing warmth and record years.

[nflwxman]

From an uneducated perspective, the PDO really seems to dictate increasing warmth and record years.

PDO/ENSO are intrinsically tied.  A lot of the recent warm has to do with the fact we are finally not in La Nina conditions and the imbalance is finally showing itself in the surface temperature realm. 

[skierinvermont]

I highly doubt this is a PDO phase shift. We can see periodic 1-2 year spikes (declines) in the PDO during cold (warm) cycles. The late 1950's featured a 2+ year period from 1957-59 with predominately positive to occasionally strongly positive PDO conditions. My guess right now is that we'll continue w/ the +PDO through the rest of 2015, have another weak warm ENSO event next winter, then begin the PDO decline back into persistent negative for awhile in the first half of 2016.

 

This will be the most prolonged and intense +PDO during a -PDO phase by the end of the year. That leads me to question if it is just a temporary excursion or an early phase change.

 

The only way you can prove it's not a phase change is if you can prove that the PDO actually operates on a 30-yr timescale. That's about how long phases lasted in the 20th century (although there was some variation especially in the early 20th century) but that is not much of a sample size.

 

It makes more sense to me that a physical oscillation like this would not have a regular period length. I can't think of a physical reason anything this big and complex and chaotic would operate on a nice smooth 30 year period length.

[wolfpackmet]

ENSO statistical and dynamical models generally indicate the maintenance of a weak Nino through the warm season. However, I don't like to make any ENSO predictions until later in spring for the coming year. The next several months tend to have quite a bit of variance.

 

 

I prefer statistical projections as well but that plume is from about a month ago.  I wonder how much of the developing down-welling wave was taken into account.  We'll see, last year's massive wave didn't account for much by the summer.

[AvantHiatus]

How about the notion of the -PDO being overwhelmed by SSTA from Greenhouse Gas Forcing? Having a mega ridge parked over the majority of the Pacific basin does not help either. Perhaps when adjusted for global SSTA, we are really in a neutral PDO.