2015 Global Temperatures

[AvantHiatus]

Warmest March on record according to the Japanese Meteorological Agency

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/mar_wld.html

 

The monthly anomaly of the global average surface temperature in March 2015 (i.e. the average of the near-surface air temperature over land and the SST) was +0.31°C above the 1981-2010 average (+0.76°C above the 20th century average), and was the warmest since 1891. On a longer time scale, global average surface temperatures have risen at a rate of about 0.83°C per century.

[nflwxman]

Pertinent to a potential flip to a positive PDO phase, here is a new study that correlated coral reef samples to the PDO and global temperatures.  It's paywalled, but the article does a good job summarizing.  Essentially, if the PDO trends positively in a particular time period (1974-1994) it enhances AGW and vice versa (1994-2014).  Not something most of us didn't know already, but interesting to see more confirmation that rapid warming is beginning.

 

http://mashable.com/2015/04/09/rapid-global-warming/

 

 

Abstract

Decadal changes in Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and upper ocean heat content (OHC) remain poorly understood. We present an annual average composite coral Sr/Ca-derived SST time series extending back to 1791 from Fiji, Tonga, and Rarotonga (FTR) in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) sensitive region of the southwest Pacific. Decadal SST maxima between 1805 and 1830 Common Era (C.E.) indicate unexplained elevated SSTs near the end of the Little Ice Age. The mean period of decadal SST variability in this region has a period near 25 years. Decades of warmer (cooler) FTR SST co-occur with PDO negative (positive) phases since at least ~1930 C.E. and positively correlate with South Pacific OHC (0–700 m). FTR SST is also inversely correlated with decadal changes in equatorial Pacific SST as measured by coral Sr/Ca. Collectively, these results support the fluctuating trade wind-shallow meridional overturning cell mechanism for decadal modulation of Pacific SSTs and OHC.

[nflwxman]

March GISS temp is out.  The anomaly was .84C above the 1951-1980 baseline.  This is good for the 3rd warmest March.  It's also the warmest month since the moderate El Nino in 2010.

 

So far 2015 is averaging a .79 anomaly.  Effectively blowing every other "developing nino" year out of the water.

 

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year
2001 41 46 57 51 56 53 59 48 52 47 67 52 52 50 38 55 53 55 2001
2002 71 73 88 56 62 54 58 52 62 54 58 42 61 62 66 69 55 58 2002
2003 71 54 55 52 60 46 53 65 62 72 52 72 60 57 56 56 55 62 2003
2004 55 66 62 58 40 40 22 41 50 62 69 48 51 53 64 53 34 60 2004
2005 68 55 66 66 61 64 62 59 73 76 71 64 65 64 57 64 62 73 2005
2006 52 65 59 45 43 60 50 66 59 66 69 74 59 58 61 49 59 65 2006
2007 93 65 67 71 64 56 58 57 61 56 54 46 62 65 77 68 57 57 2007
2008 22 31 69 48 46 43 54 39 59 61 62 51 49 48 33 54 45 61 2008
2009 56 49 49 57 59 62 66 61 64 58 71 58 59 58 52 55 63 64 2009
2010 65 74 87 82 70 59 57 59 55 65 75 45 66 67 66 80 58 65 2010
2011 45 44 57 60 48 54 70 69 52 60 50 48 55 55 45 55 64 54 2011
2012 38 43 52 62 71 58 50 56 68 72 69 46 57 57 43 62 55 69 2012
2013 61 51 59 48 56 60 53 61 72 60 75 60 60 58 53 54 58 69 2013
2014 68 43 70 72 78 61 50 73 81 77 63 73 67 66 57 73 61 73 2014
2015 75 78 84 **** **** **** **** **** **** **** **** **** **** *** 75 **** **** **** 2015

[csnavywx]

Aa far as I know, it's not gaining much support from the paleoclimate community. Unless some new data were to miraculously enter the picture, nullifying the GISP and Vostok cores, I don't believe there's any way the theory could work, even hypothetically.

Even the core data you posted shows the early spike like previous interglacial transitions for the Holocene, but after a brief retreat, it begins to rise again, and CH4 rises 70-100ppb along with it. Incidentally, this part of the time period The result has been an extremely slow fall in temps as forcing from those gasses almost neatly offsets the natural decrease, something that doesn't happen in other interglacials.

 

The one thing I DO genuinely like is the interdisciplinary approach that he takes. Scientists have a funny little habit of staying within their fields. Breaking out and talking to other scientists from other disciplines however, is a great way to make discoveries and breakthroughs.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Even the core data you posted shows the early spike like previous interglacial transitions for the Holocene, but after a brief retreat, it begins to rise again, and CH4 rises 70-100ppb along with it. Incidentally, this part of the time period. The result has been an extremely slow fall in temps as forcing from those gasses almost neatly offsets the natural decrease, something that doesn't happen in other interglacials.

I'm not sure about that..the same post-optimum CO^2 spike occurred 700,000yrs ago in MIS11..it seems to be a phenomenon of a weak eccentricity/precessional integral, for whatever reason.

Even if the late-Holocene CO^2 increase were unique (it isn't in either the full GISP2 or EPICA datasets), you're talking about a 20-25ppm increase, or a RF of 0.21W/m^2..that's not nearly enough forcing. Year to year swings in the radiative budget alone can surpass 5W/m^2.

Here's a better look at the high-res EPICA-dome data..there have been plenty of post-optimum CO^2 spikes in the record, especially if you go further back.

The one thing I DO genuinely like is the interdisciplinary approach that he takes. Scientists have a funny little habit of staying within their fields. Breaking out and talking to other scientists from other disciplines however, is a great way to make discoveries and breakthroughs.

I agree with this 100%. There's nothing quite like multi-disciplinary brainstorming.

[StudentOfClimatology]

It's also important to note that, like the previous four interstadials, the Holocene is also obliquity-dominated..only this go around we're weak on eccentricity and precession. Every interstadial since MIS2 except one has terminated during the fall in obliquity, within 1000yrs of the precessional aphelion around the maximum eccentricity. This is basically a rule of thumb. It has little or nothing to do with insolation above 60N. Rather it has more to do with the equator-pole insolation gradient, which governs meridional circulation, hence heat transport to both poles, which is why the ice-age/interglacial cycle is globally synchronized.

See how polar insolation is largely governed by Obliquity. The more amplified Obliquity harmonic over the last 500,000yrs is responsible for the increasing extremes in the stadial-interstadial cycle.

While boreal-summer solar forcing @ 65N correlates to termination at times, the Obliquity-Precession alignment correlates even better, and this works at both poles, unlike the former. Over the last 800,000 years, no interstadial except one has terminated more than 500yrs away from precessional aphelion.

Therefore, the Holocene (in the absence of AGW) would be expected to terminate within the next 500 to 1000 years, as we've just surpassed the aphelion beyond the elliptical maximum and are in the down-cycling obliquity phase. However, now that AGW is ongoing, this timeable is no longer relevant.

However, when CO^2 levels do eventually come down 1000-1500 years down the road, we'll need to do something to avoid what would be a fairly rapid descent into an ice age. The orbital configurations look pretty ugly for the next 45,000yrs at least.

[chubbs]

Below is GISS monthly (blue) and 12-month running average (red) over the satellite period. The 12-month running average continues to work higher and is now well above the previous peak in 2010 and the long-term trendline.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Nino is breaking out

[AvantHiatus]

[The_Global_Warmer]

It will be a big co2 Lt uptake year with the warm tropics

[chubbs]

NOAA came in at 0.85 for March. Warmest March and year-to-date and only 0.01 below the warmest month ever - 0.86 in Feb. 1998.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

KA BOOOOOOOMMMM

[AvantHiatus]

Insane, long time coming.

[The_Global_Warmer]

No ohc update for Jan-Mar.

Will be interesting to see if we set another quarterly record with the big equatorial warmth by March.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Signs in the medium range models of WWBs between 0 and 10N over a huge part of the basin.

Then you can see the enso3 wwb.

If that happens nino will go strong really quickly

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

me thinks it's gonna be a hot summer.  

 

at-least cali's chances of rain go up.   (next winter)

[The_Global_Warmer]

Signals continue to emerge in favor of a big time nino.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Nino will be only getting stronger now.

[wolfpackmet]

CFS dailies back up to about ~+0.21 C, the highest level in a month.  April is currently at +0.061 C.  

[The_Global_Warmer]

The broiler is on.

[Typhoon Tip]

C/O NASA: "The global average surface temperature in March 2015 was +0.84^oC above the long term average, according to NASA. This was 0.05^oC warmer than the +0.79^oC anomaly reported in February and 0.09^oC warmer than the +0.75^oC anomaly reported in January.

 

This makes the month the third warmest March – behind 2002 (+0.88^oC) and 2010 (+0.87^oC) - on the records maintained by the agency which date back to 1880..."
 

[The_Global_Warmer]

CFS is up to 0.86C+ for April. Which is a 0.64C on giss roughly.

Although it appears recent giss is running on the higher side of the equation.

Either way it looks like April will be in the 0.64 to 0.68C range.

Cooler than Jan-Mar but still at record highs versus the yearly record.

Global ssts have also increased during this time.

[chubbs]

CFS is up to 0.86C+ for April. Which is a 0.64C on giss roughly.

Although it appears recent giss is running on the higher side of the equation.

Either way it looks like April will be in the 0.64 to 0.68C range.

Cooler than Jan-Mar but still at record highs versus the yearly record.

Global ssts have also increased during this time.

I think you meant 0.084 for CFS. The CFS April running average is still trending slowly upward recovering from a relatively cool start to the month so I think GISS will be  a little higher say 0.66 - 0.70. Per climate re-analyzer May. will start off very warm.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Yeah. Oops.

With Nino only getting stronger.

UAH will also get much Warmer.

[chubbs]

UAH version 6 has been released. UAH6 is quite a bit cooler since 2000 and closer to RSS.

 

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/04/version-6-0-of-the-uah-temperature-dataset-released-new-lt-trend-0-11-cdecade/

[nflwxman]

UAH version 6 has been released. UAH6 is quite a bit cooler since 2000 and closer to RSS.

 

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/04/version-6-0-of-the-uah-temperature-dataset-released-new-lt-trend-0-11-cdecade/

uah6.gif

A nearly 40 year trend line changed that much?  This revision is nearly 20%...  All things considered, that is a very large difference. It also means that UAH has essentially caved to RSS in terms of recent TLT temperature trends.  There is a reason the IPCC doesn't use these datasets.  The anomaly of a recent month of Feb 2015 was changed from 0.28C to 0.11C....  

 

Skier's point prior regarding the uncertainty of remote sensing is becoming even more relevant and applicable. (Sorry SoC- but how could anyone trust this dataset for empirical studies?).  This is a major revision of a very long term trend.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Lol. Its like it was fixed to show a flat line or cooling since the late 1990s.

So the 1980s and 2000s-2010s had spurious warming?

Ok

[nflwxman]

Lol. Its like it was fixed to show a flat line or cooling since the late 1990s.

So the 1980s and 2000s-2010s had spurious warming?

Ok

 

I'm not sure if it's nefarious, but wow what a difference from the previous revision in the last 15 years.  The 2000-2015 trend dropped from 0.12C/decade to essentially flat.  

[StudentOfClimatology]

Glad to see UAH and RSS finally in agreement.

Here's the abstract:

Version 6 of the UAH MSU/AMSU global satellite temperature dataset is by far the most extensive revision of the procedures and computer code we have ever produced in over 25 years of global temperature monitoring. The two most significant changes from an end-user perspective are (1) a decrease in the global-average lower tropospheric (LT) temperature trend from +0.140 C/decade to +0.114 C/decade (Dec. ’78 through Mar. ’15); and (2) the geographic distribution of the LT trends, including higher spatial resolution. We describe the major changes in processing strategy, including a new method for monthly gridpoint averaging; a new multi-channel (rather than multi-angle) method for computing the lower tropospheric (LT) temperature product; and a new empirical method for diurnal drift correction. We also show results for the mid-troposphere (“MT”, from MSU2/AMSU5), tropopause (“TP”, from MSU3/AMSU7), and lower stratosphere (“LS”, from MSU4/AMSU9). The 0.026 C/decade reduction in the global LT trend is due to lesser sensitivity of the new LT to land surface skin temperature (est. 0.010 C/decade), with the remainder of the reduction (0.016 C/decade) due to the new diurnal drift adjustment, the more robust method of LT calculation, and other changes in processing procedures.

[AvantHiatus]

Has UAH for March come out yet? I don't understand the discrepancy here, something is not right. March was massively warmer than January yet UAH shows a cooling trend. Is it really possible for the lower troposphere and surface to be so out of sync?

 

Is the CO2 forcing so strong that the heat just bypasses the LT? Trapped at the surface? How about tropical convection transporting the heat above the LT?