nflwxman Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Discussion of 2015 Global Temperatures here within. Predictions will be made in a separate thread to be started at a later date, but feel free to discuss your thoughts here. My take: ENSO neutral to a weak Nino seems to be the name of the game at least for the first few months of 2015. If the statistical models are correct, we should descend into ENSO neutral by spring or summer. Given this, I suspect a GISS temperature of 70-75 on the year. What has been most surprising about the last 2 years is the rapid rise in Ocean Temperatures. This could be related to recent increase in the PDO index. If this continues, 2015 will very likely be the warmest year on record again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Discussion of 2015 Global Temperatures here within. Predictions will be made in a separate thread to be started at a later date, but feel free to discuss your thoughts here. My take: ENSO neutral to a weak Nino seems to be the name of the game at least for the first few months of 2015. If the statistical models are correct, we should descend into ENSO neutral by spring or summer. Given this, I suspect a GISS temperature of 70-75 on the year. What has been most surprising about the last 2 years is the rapid rise in Ocean Temperatures. This could be related to recent increase in the PDO index. If this continues, 2015 will very likely be the warmest year on record again. The oceans have been leading the way. Lower troposphere temperatures above the oceans still in an upward trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 looks like another global torch in the making Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Half way threw January CFS currently has a 0.62C giss equivalent. But global temps have rocketed upwards and that will likely rise close to a 0.70C+ by the 20th. El Nino for now has totally failed. Never the less there is substantial warmth over the sub-tropical NH oceans. There is also four large warm pools over the SH oceans surrounded by much smaller cool areas. Also the West Central NPAC back to Australia is running above normal over huge areas of real estate. ENSO has cooled a lot but the waters just South of enso have warmed a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 ESNO looks to get a nice kick in the ass this upcoming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I'd probably go similar or slightly warmer than this year for the surface. And slightly warmer than this year for satellite TLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 CFS is up to 0.117C+ for January which is a 0.67C+ GISS equivalent. The CFS dailies are running near 0.40C+ ENSO has cooled quite a bit the last 2-3 weeks. But is currently at the start of a prolonged WWB that will help at the least replenish the sub-surface warmth. It is quite warm in many locations. We are running at super NINO level global ssts without the NINO. Bottom line the Earth is very warm at the surface and sub-surface. Current forecasts show the inferno to actually increase and peak Monday-Tuesday. Peak as in 0.50C daily CFS anomalies. That is over 1.0C on GISS. Models show the inferno coming to an end on Friday. By then CFS will be at the least 0.175C+. Burn Baby Burn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I'd probably go similar or slightly warmer than this year for the surface. And slightly warmer than this year for satellite TLT. I am thinking slightly warmer on surface mainly in first 7 months. ENSO/SST/PDO all warmer than this time last year and will lap a cool Feb. But will have tougher comparisons Aug-Dec. with 2nd half ENSO uncertain. Satellite should warm a little more than surface since satellite was slower to warm last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 torching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 ENSO is quickly responding to the anomalous winds. Definitely nothing major on the way. But never the less the oceans are just roasting. Still running at previous record NINO terrority ssta wise without the NINO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 CFS is going to finish January ~+.150 which is about a +0.70 GISS equivalent. WWB looks to continue near Nino 4 region through at least next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The UK Met office has issued their updated decadal forecast at the link below. Chart includes: observation (black), previous predictions (red), updated projection (blue) and CMIPS (green). Modeling starts with conditions in October 2014. The forecast projects warming temperatures but not a full recovery from the hiatus. Warming is highest over land and at northern high latitudes. Continued cool conditions are indicated for Southern Ocean with developing cool conditions in N Atlantic http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 UAH for January comes in at +0.36 C (UAH site has 0.36 which is different from Dr Spencer's graphic) above baseline. 5th warmest January in dataset. Last negative monthly anomaly was February 2012. I wonder if it's gonna take a decent La Nina to get our next negative monthly anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Already clear that February is going to be much warmer this year compared to last when cold/snow dominated NH continents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Good example of atmospheric harmonics coming together to overwhelm the albedo factor. This could set us up for a early snow-cover fallout and resulting warm Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 What do you mean by atmospheric harmonics? Only resonance based forcings (oceanic KWs, QBO, etc) are harmonic. The mid/high latitude circulations are chaotic and non-linear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 What do you mean by atmospheric harmonics? Only resonance based forcings (oceanic KWs, QBO, etc) are harmonic. The mid/high latitude circulations are chaotic and non-linear. The mechanism for the forcing of the wave, for example the generation of the initial or prolonged disturbance in the atmospheric variables, can vary. Generally, waves are either excited by heating or dynamic effects, for example the obstruction of the flow by mountain ranges like the Rocky Mountains in the U.S. or the Alps in Europe. Heating effects can be small-scale (like the generation of gravity waves by convection) or large-scale (the formation of Rossby waves by the temperature contrasts between continents and oceans in the Northern hemisphere winter). Atmospheric waves transport momentum, which is fed back into the background flow as the wave dissipates. This wave forcing of the flow is particularly important in the stratosphere, where this momentum deposition by planetary scale Rossby waves gives rise to sudden stratospheric warmings and the deposition by gravity waves gives rise to the quasi-biennial oscillation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Already clear that February is going to be much warmer this year compared to last when cold/snow dominated NH continents. climare re.png We see many months start absurdly cold or warm, don't use the first 3 days of the month to define anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 We see many months start absurdly cold or warm, don't use the first 3 days of the month to define anything. The chart I posted was the GFS outlook for Feb 11. Last year it was cold just about all month in NA and Eurasia with more extensive snow cover. By next week 2015 will be too far behind to catch up even if it turns cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Jan RSS was 0.37 warmest in 2 years. Satellites starting to catch up to rise in surface temperature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 #torching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 What do you mean by atmospheric harmonics? Only resonance based forcings (oceanic KWs, QBO, etc) are harmonic. The mid/high latitude circulations are chaotic and non-linear. The mechanism for the forcing of the wave, for example the generation of the initial or prolonged disturbance in the atmospheric variables, can vary. Generally, waves are either excited by heating or dynamic effects, for example the obstruction of the flow by mountain ranges like the Rocky Mountains in the U.S. or the Alps in Europe. Heating effects can be small-scale (like the generation of gravity waves by convection) or large-scale (the formation of Rossby waves by the temperature contrasts between continents and oceans in the Northern hemisphere winter). Atmospheric waves transport momentum, which is fed back into the background flow as the wave dissipates. This wave forcing of the flow is particularly important in the stratosphere, where this momentum deposition by planetary scale Rossby waves gives rise to sudden stratospheric warmings and the deposition by gravity waves gives rise to the quasi-biennial oscillation. What do wave/transport dynamics have to do with "atmospheric harmonics combining to overwhelm the albedo factor"? I have no idea what you're referring to there. There's nothing unusual about the wave train right now, except for the fact that it's very short. If anything, that should prevent the high latitudes from blowtorching because large scale meridional fluxes are reduced in spatial coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 HADSST for January - 0.44C, 0.10C warmer than last year. Oceans continue to lead the way in this ENSO/PDO warming cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 If we make it into NH Spring with those SST it seems as though it would be very difficult to not break that record again this year just based on SST seasonality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 You are moving into bad territory when HADSST is nearly outpacing the global land temperature average. The hiatus is nearly effectively over, if not reversed into deep warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 You are moving into bad territory when HADSST is nearly outpacing the global land temperature average. The hiatus is nearly effectively over, if not reversed into deep warming. The jury is still out on that one. The effective standard deviations on Hadcrut4 and Ncdc have not yet indicated a baseline shift. We'll need a few more years to determine where this is going. Here's a higher-res graphic of Hadcrut4 for the satellite era: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Not an expert on HADCRUT4 but I can sense a moderate ENSO bias just by glancing at it. Too much emphasis on tropical warming. We have to remember that we beat out 09-10 without a substantial warming event in the tropics on most surface datasets, aside from the West Pacific where a constant continuation of la nina and neutral ENSO forcing has caused massive amounts of OHC to build up in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Not an expert on HADCRUT4 but I can sense a moderate ENSO bias just by glancing at it. Too much emphasis on tropical warming. What does that even mean? NCDC looks the same. It's called data. We have to remember that we beat out 09-10 without a substantial warming event in the tropics on most surface datasets, aside from the West Pacific where a constant continuation of la nina and neutral ENSO forcing has caused massive amounts of OHC to build up in that region. AGW is a long term, multidecadal phenomenon, it is not statistically detectable over 4 year intervals. The 2010 warmth was ENSO forced, the 2014 warmth was largely Hadley Cell forced. I'm not sure what your point is. The multidecadal trend is up, and that's the time-resolution that GCMs are programmed to best capture. The short term stuff makes for good hyperbole, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Not an expert on HADCRUT4 but I can sense a moderate ENSO bias just by glancing at it. Too much emphasis on tropical warming. We have to remember that we beat out 09-10 without a substantial warming event in the tropics on most surface datasets, aside from the West Pacific where a constant continuation of la nina and neutral ENSO forcing has caused massive amounts of OHC to build up in that region. Too much emphasis on tropical warming relative to what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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