dendrite Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 18z Nam is a little colder this run, Pretty good front end thump and a prolonged frozen look definitely up this wayA little colder...still quite a pingfest back this way with the toasty H75-H8 layer. It backed off a bit on the early fronto in SNE as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 18z Nam is a little colder this run, Pretty good front end thump and a prolonged frozen look definitely up this way Still has the good fronto band down in SNE too...but it's still a quick transition between 00z and 03z over the pike region while the precip is pretty heavy. 90 minutes could make the difference of a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 18z Nam is a little colder this run, Pretty good front end thump and a prolonged frozen look definitely up this way Congrats--once again, you're faring well relative to us down south. It looks like it's offering 2-4 here, less as you continue your way down. Watch cancel. 29.5/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Still has the good fronto band down in SNE too...but it's still a quick transition between 00z and 03z over the pike region while the precip is pretty heavy. 90 minutes could make the difference of a couple inches.Looked like it backed off a bit from 12Z to me. It's still much better than the GFS down your way though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Still has the good fronto band down in SNE too...but it's still a quick transition between 00z and 03z over the pike region while the precip is pretty heavy. 90 minutes could make the difference of a couple inches. Yeah, The longer you can prolong the warmth taking over some could see an additional inch or two out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Looked like it backed off a bit from 12Z to me. It's still much better than the GFS down your way though. Yeah well the 12z run was kind of obnoxious with the qpf...it was close to a half inch over 3 hours in spots which isn't happening. I wasn't necessarily looking at straight QPF anyway...more the omega and mid-level look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 FWIW, And probably not a heck of a lot, But verbatim, This was the 12z run and 18 z run of the Nam here 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah well the 12z run was kind of obnoxious with the qpf...it was close to a half inch over 3 hours in spots which isn't happening. I wasn't necessarily looking at straight QPF anyway...more the omega and mid-level look. I thought it held the best omega back NW a bit more. Either way it didn't help me any...I want the lift coming through early like you while the profile is still snow. It looked great for Dryslot though. I'm leaning 3-5" here before a few hours of pelting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I know my climo for these events. 1/2" to 1" of slop before the changeover. 50-55F for a while Sunday to start anew before the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I thought it held the best omega back NW a bit more. Either way it didn't help me any...I want the lift coming through early like you while the profile is still snow. It looked great for Dryslot though. I'm leaning 3-5" here before a few hours of pelting. I thought the differences were fairly trivial down here, though the output qpf was a bit less. More in line with the RGEM and Euro. The 750-800mb warm punch moves very quickly once it gets going...that's where the forecast is tough for everyone. It could end up pelting here by 0z or 01z rather than 02z-03z. Hopefully it holds off a bit longer than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I thought the differences were fairly trivial down here, though the output qpf was a bit less. More in line with the RGEM and Euro. The 750-800mb warm punch moves very quickly once it gets going...that's where the forecast is tough for everyone. It could end up pelting here by 0z or 01z rather than 02z-03z. Hopefully it holds off a bit longer than modeled. It appears that 95% of the posters have stayed away from this thread today--I think I know where they think this is headed. The updated BOX p/c has lowered me from 3-5 to 2-4. 29.1/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I thought the differences were fairly trivial down here, though the output qpf was a bit less. More in line with the RGEM and Euro. The 750-800mb warm punch moves very quickly once it gets going...that's where the forecast is tough for everyone. It could end up pelting here by 0z or 01z rather than 02z-03z. Hopefully it holds off a bit longer than modeled. Where the heaviest snow sets might be critical because maybe where it snows hardest, we can keep the whole column cool longest? Where is the best band of snow likely to be early on or will it be a broad area of precip? Or is this where we start to look at meso models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yup. BOX lowered me to 1-3 from 3-5. Awt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It appears that 95% of the posters have stayed away from this thread today--I think I know where they think this is headed. The updated BOX p/c has lowered me from 3-5 to 2-4. 29.1/16 A lot of us aren't getting much so it's not a surprise. This will be the ORH-MPM on north thread soon enough..lol. Just like 98% of the people won't be in a thread where the Cape is getting hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 A lot of us aren't getting much so it's not a surprise. This will be the ORH-MPM on north thread soon enough..lol. Just like 98% of the people won't be in a thread where the Cape is getting hit. That's the direction things are going from ORH to here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 That's the direction things are going from ORH to here as well. oh my word.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 That's the direction things are going from ORH to here as well. Well if I were in your shoes, I'd be excited for a net gain. It's all relative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Moneyb*tch strikes again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 From 3-5" to 2-4"...what a disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Moneyb*tch strikes again Same ole, qpf worries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The irony of someone in a washed away zone, talking a weenie in NW MA off a cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The irony of someone in a washed away zone, talking a weenie in NW MA off a cliff. He should be more consoling to his fellow brethren that are not as fortunate..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The irony of someone in a washed away zone, talking a weenie in NW MA off a cliff. Yeah my heart bleeds. 4 inches vs 5" while I get a trace maybe. Same deal before the foot of paste in the tday storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I couldn't care less, never expected much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I really fail to see why some peeps are viewing Mike's (or mine) as b*tching. Just stating what Box has done and how it lines up with earlier thinking. Jeesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I couldn't care less, never expected muchExperience tells me we'll see a coating to an inch with this setup. Maybe we'll luck out and get advisory amounts with the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I don't think anything has changed at all since last night personally. I mean, if you view the nuance of BOX moving a 3-5 contour a few miles that puts you in a 2-4 or 1-3 instead, I don't see that as significant. It's the same as model noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I don't think anything has changed at all since last night personally. I mean, if you view the nuance of BOX moving a 3-5 contour a few miles that puts you in a 2-4 or 1-3 instead, I don't see that as significant. It's the same as model noise. I agree with this. It did not make sense to me when it was overly bearish, and was not shocked when it adjusted. Steady as she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 local mets on TV websites going for 60 for Hartford and New Haven...break out the shorts. WTNH:Sunday: Rain in the morning, then mostly cloudy, warm and windy. High: Hartford: 60. New Haven: 60. Temperatures begin to crash from west to east late day. WVIT: 57 Sunday WFSB: Sunday: Rain tapering off to showers during the afternoon, breezy and mild! Low: 32. High: 52 inland, 56 shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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