CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Finally models all agree on 2ndary/triple point passing south of us..so that will limit the warmth/heat to post fropa We'll still get warm Sunday IMO. That's my guess for you and esp me. Maybe it's only for a few hours for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Wonder if things ticked a bair colder last night.....I was bumped from 1-2" to 2-4". I think 2-4 is a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I think 2-4 is a good call. That was my original call, but it looked pretty bleak yesteray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 That was my original call, but it looked pretty bleak yesteray. Think the snow that falls will probably be in a narrow field. So it winds up the luck of the draw and which town you live in. And that precise forecast won't be realistic until very close to the event. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 3-5 here plus ice...not bad I suppose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 That was my original call, but it looked pretty bleak yesteray. Well I probably feel better closer to 2 than 4, but I think that is a fair range. Encompasses uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Any chance there will be power outage issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 There's pretty big differences between the NAM and GFS at 06z...GFS is probably an inch or less on the front end for most of SNE...the NAM is like 4-5" north of the pike. It really rips that initial WAA fronto band. Euro is kind of a compromise, but probably a tad closer to the NAM. So I think 2-4" north of the pike is a decent call with 1-2 south (maybe a spot 3) and perhaps 4-6" up in the Monads and perhaps over to near MPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I'd like to be in MPM's area for this..That area is going to see 3-5 inches of snow and a 1/4 -1/2 inch of ice..and not get much above 40 on Sunday I bet Chris might do even better as I think his valley location will hold onto the cold longer (but I managed to remain cool during the last couple of events). As far as warmth goes on Sunday, I do expecting to get to 45 or so briefly. I'm not sure what to think regarding icing issues and power. The snow that comes down will likely be about .2 of liquid and then let's call it .2" of zr (not all of which will remain on surfaces of course). I think that would equate to some branches coming down, but nothing too significant. Much of the stuff that would otherwise come down with those amounts got dropped at Thanksgiving. 28.6/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 We'll still get warm Sunday IMO. That's my guess for you and esp me. Maybe it's only for a few hours for you. Oh yeah I know..I'll get to like 44-47 for a couple hours..but that shouldn't totally melt the couple inches of snow and ice that is OTG. I was afraid of 50's and dews and south winds . Sunday looks a DSD..but with steep lapse rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 There's pretty big differences between the NAM and GFS at 06z...GFS is probably an inch or less on the front end for most of SNE...the NAM is like 4-5" north of the pike. It really rips that initial WAA fronto band. Euro is kind of a compromise, but probably a tad closer to the NAM. So I think 2-4" north of the pike is a decent call with 1-2 south (maybe a spot 3) and perhaps 4-6" up in the Monads and perhaps over to near MPM. Yeah I noticed that. The GFS is pretty meh with the initial stuff. I noticed the WFO BTV WRF also has an Initial burst of good snow. Even here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Think the snow that falls will probably be in a narrow field. So it winds up the luck of the draw and which town you live in. And that precise forecast won't be realistic until very close to the event. Good luck! What does this even mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I wouldnt worry about power outages with the icing...you really need at least a third of an inch of accretion to start causing issues unless you live in an area that has a weak power grid. There will definitely be glazing, but I think it will mostly remain under that amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Oh yeah I know..I'll get to like 44-47 for a couple hours..but that shouldn't totally melt the couple inches of snow and ice that is OTG. I was afraid of 50's and dews and south winds . Sunday looks a DSD..but with steep lapse rates It's close. Don't set yourself up for disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I wouldnt worry about power outages with the icing...you really need at least a third of an inch of accretion to start causing issues unless you live in an area that has a weak power grid. There will definitely be glazing, but I think it will mostly remain under that amount. Sounds good. At least I don't need to cook a turkey like I did in the last outages. Too bad it will all be washed away--I think icing is one of the best looking feats of nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It's close. Don't set yourself up for disappointment. Yeah it could easilt be 6-8 hours of 48-50F...it all depends on when things mix out...his area isn't the greatest for really holding on to the last vestiges of the CAD airmasses...for SNE, that would be upper GC and over to N ORH county and Monads. But even there will mix out eventually...the question is if it is for like 4 hours of 44/30 or if it goes 51/45 for 8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah it could easilt be 6-8 hours of 48-50F...it all depends on when things mix out...his area isn't the greatest for really holding on to the last vestiges of the CAD airmasses...for SNE, that would be upper GC and over to N ORH county and Monads. But even there will mix out eventually...the question is if it is for like 4 hours of 44/30 or if it goes 51/45 for 8 hours. The greatest? LOL..this area is terrible for holding CAD. Way too close to the snow hole of Se CT.. But I do think if the 2ndary goes south it won't be more than a few hours of mid 40's Sunday. Colder air starts coming in mid afternoon..more importantly dews should lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I bet Chris might do even better as I think his valley location will hold onto the cold longer (but I managed to remain cool during the last couple of events). As far as warmth goes on Sunday, I do expecting to get to 45 or so briefly. I'm not sure what to think regarding icing issues and power. The snow that comes down will likely be about .2 of liquid and then let's call it .2" of zr (not all of which will remain on surfaces of course). I think that would equate to some branches coming down, but nothing too significant. Much of the stuff that would otherwise come down with those amounts got dropped at Thanksgiving. 28.6/18 You'll get more snow up there but might torch a little quicker. I'll be surprised if Greenfield gets above 40F on Sunday. I've seen it before. 5 miles in every direction in the 50's while the corridor from Greenfield to Brattleboro is CAD central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah it could easilt be 6-8 hours of 48-50F...it all depends on when things mix out...his area isn't the greatest for really holding on to the last vestiges of the CAD airmasses...for SNE, that would be upper GC and over to N ORH county and Monads. But even there will mix out eventually...the question is if it is for like 4 hours of 44/30 or if it goes 51/45 for 8 hours. Split the difference and call 47 for 6 hours. I'm actually thinking it'll be the 44-46 range here, but only for a couple hours. Maybe I'm being too optimistic. Regardless, I think areas north of the Pike will emerge from Sunday with more than brown grass to pad the way for anything that might come on Tuesday and the ensuing cool-down. 28.7/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I'm taking the lower end if some of the ranges for MBY. 2-3" before the change North of NH in Jaffery I think will do a bit better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I'm taking the lower end if some of the ranges for MBY. 2-3" before the change North of NH in Jaffery I think will do a bit better Gusty call there, Dave. You're call for your hood is in line with what I was thinking out here (2-4). The 06z GFS had me cringe a little bit even for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocket Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 There's pretty big differences between the NAM and GFS at 06z...GFS is probably an inch or less on the front end for most of SNE...the NAM is like 4-5" north of the pike. It really rips that initial WAA fronto band. Euro is kind of a compromise, but probably a tad closer to the NAM. So I think 2-4" north of the pike is a decent call with 1-2 south (maybe a spot 3) and perhaps 4-6" up in the Monads and perhaps over to near MPM. How far east does the 1-2, 2-4, 4-6" go? 128, 495, ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 RGEM is pretty cold and is more like the NAM with the 3-4 hour thump of snow..and lingers the icing a bit longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 How far east does the 1-2, 2-4, 4-6" go? 128, 495, ORH? I'd keep 4-6 up by the NH border. 2-4 for most areas north of the pike. Maybe 1-3 inside 128 and north of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Gusty call there, Dave. You're call for your hood is in line with what I was thinking out here (2-4). The 06z GFS had me cringe a little bit even for that. I will be pleased just to have a bit of frozen stuff on the ground again. I am more interested in later in the weekI think you get more than me with this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 2-4 is my call here, not much icing in this area. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I will be pleased just to have a bit of frozen stuff on the ground again. I am more interested in later in the week I think you get more than me with this setup Agree on having frozen. The difference between me and you will probably be as much as a .5". Pretty uniform methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Will this be a wet heavy snow or more powder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 2-4 is my call here, not much icing in this area. Sent from my iPhone Yea, we'll grab 2-3", endure a period of sleet, then over to the coldest rain imaginable before continuing to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 4-6" looks good here with some PL and then changeover to DZ, There won't be very much ZR with this storm down in the lower elevations anyways, In the foothills and mountains, A different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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