Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Everyone always says the GFS handles these SW flow events and temp profiles well and the Euro blows in these set ups. So this will be a good test to see if that holds true. Hard to imagine that strong cold high and position just gives up ground with 40's and rain into NNE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The Euro ensembles mean looked a little better with the high than the OP run FWIW. But I'd still like to see a shift west on the high to be more confident in a solid front end thump (advisory or better). That vortmax gets ground up fairly quickly as it moves northeast, so I think we're still going to see some moving around of solutions in the next day or so. But tonight's 00z runs will be getting inside of 96 hours, so its starting to get to that point where the goalposts narrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Blizz humping the GFS...before his new mistress goes away forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Blizz humping the GFS...before his new mistress goes away forever Not at all. but when a model notoriously known for it's terrible warm bias in mid and lower levels is cold and keeps most with frozen precip..it could mean the Euro is flat out wrong. or it could mean the Euro is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I wouldn't hug any solution at 102-108 hours out. I'd probably blend guidance at this stage and lean on local climo in these types of situations (advisory snow north of the pike, 1-3 south, with N ORH, Berks, Monads, etc holding onto a period of icing after the snow...shorter period of icing south of there) But these are details that can change as we get closer. Still quite a bit of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 00z suite didn't cool things as much as I hoped...though that antecedent airmass is really impressive. I'm inclined to lean toward a 2-4" type snow in the pike region on the front end right now with icing over the interior NW of of 495 for a time which could get kind of nasty. I do lean on a triple point low going over SE MA or islands right now with the airmass in place...but can't rule out a more consolidated primary like the OP Euro...but these situations more often than not have a triple point low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I wouldn't hug any solution at 102-108 hours out. I'd probably blend guidance at this stage and lean on local climo in these types of situations (advisory snow north of the pike, 1-3 south, with N ORH, Berks, Monads, etc holding onto a period of icing after the snow...shorter period of icing south of there) But these are details that can change as we get closer. Still quite a bit of time. 2-5", followed by a period of sleet and rain..done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Would CAD play a big role in the 00z setup? I realize at this point it doesn't matter but just wondering of that were to happen verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 00z suite didn't cool things as much as I hoped...though that antecedent airmass is really impressive. I'm inclined to lean toward a 2-4" type snow in the pike region on the front end right now with icing over the interior NW of of 495 for a time which could get kind of nasty. I do lean on a triple point low going over SE MA or islands right now with the airmass in place...but can't rule out a more consolidated primary like the OP Euro...but these situations more often than not have a triple point low. Will what do you think it looks like up in NH? GYX says .5-1 inch qpf on all ensembles. Sounds like a 5-10 inch deal once north of Rt 2 and away from the immediate coast? Hopefully this is a SWFE with good snow growth and not the sand I've seen a couple of times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 5 may be a stretch, but 2-4 is reasonable. GFS Could argue 5 there and even 2-3 here. We'll see as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 00z suite didn't cool things as much as I hoped...though that antecedent airmass is really impressive. I'm inclined to lean toward a 2-4" type snow in the pike region on the front end right now with icing over the interior NW of of 495 for a time which could get kind of nasty. I do lean on a triple point low going over SE MA or islands right now with the airmass in place...but can't rule out a more consolidated primary like the OP Euro...but these situations more often than not have a triple point low. Would that scenario warm most folks above freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 5 may be a stretch, but 2-4 is reasonable. GFS Could argue 5 there and even 2-3 here. We'll see as we get closer. I knew someone would stomp that out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Would that scenario warm most folks above freezing?You aren't staying below 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Low will probably go over the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I knew someone would stomp that out Hey the GFS argues it so it could happen. Just a guess for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 This is for Saturday and Sunday? My point and click doesn't even indicate there is a storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 You aren't staying below 32What makes you iron clad 100% sure that everyone torches to the NH border? And will everyone's snow totally melt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 This is for Saturday and Sunday? My point and click doesn't even indicate there is a storm... What's wrong with snow likely, then rain likely in consecutive 12 hour periods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 What makes you iron clad 100% sure that everyone torches to the NH border? And will everyone's snow totally melt? You as in You, Kevin Wood. Besides, these things always mix out CAD when they pass NE of us. Even Dendrite jokes how is warm front is actually a cold front. But in this case, you'll go above 32 during the event and without a doubt in Sunday. Not before some snow and ice. Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 What's wrong with snow likely, then rain likely in consecutive 12 hour periods? Don't forget who you are talking to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 What makes you iron clad 100% sure that everyone torches to the NH border? And will everyone's snow totally melt?You derived all that from "you won't stay below 32"?I'll be at killington next week, I think the models eventually trend colder but given thier elevation the mid levels can make things tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Will what do you think it looks like up in NH? GYX says .5-1 inch qpf on all ensembles. Sounds like a 5-10 inch deal once north of Rt 2 and away from the immediate coast? Hopefully this is a SWFE with good snow growth and not the sand I've seen a couple of times Prob not a bad forecast right now. 10 might be too high on a lot of these solutions. I'd prob want to be further northeast for that in Maine somewhere. But it's quite early to get too nitpicky on amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 What's wrong with snow likely, then rain likely in consecutive 12 hour periods? I was just looking at my wunderground app. Not the actual text...my apologies. Although, I do think we have a chance at ice in SNH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 2-4 seems good Ray, enjoy. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I was just looking at my wunderground app. Not the actual text...my apologies. Although, I do think we have a chance at ice in SNH Definitely a chance of ice, but at this range it's way to nuanced and detailed to pinpoint locations and ice amounts beyond just saying there's a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 You as in You, Kevin Wood. Besides, these things always mix out CAD when they pass NE of us. Even Dendrite jokes how is warm front is actually a cold front. But in this case, you'll go above 32 during the event and without a doubt in Sunday. Not before some snow and ice. Relax.Well there never was much doubt most south of NH border go above freezing . But I guess our main concern is do we all torch into the 40's, or can we all stay in the 30's and keep some snowcover? That's our concern if you will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Amazing how the lack of a -NAO allows these storms an almost guarantee to cut to our west. Sunday jumps to near 50F for a few hours sandwiched between significant cold. I remember years like this in the past. Are we actually getting close to the lock in point for Sunday's storm or should we expect further swings to west/east, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Well there never was much doubt most south of NH border go above freezing . But I guess our main concern is do we all torch into the 40's, or can we all stay in the 30's and keep some snowcover? That's our concern if you will Probably 40s at some point given how warm it gets aloft. Whether it's 39 or 45 is silly to speculate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Well there never was much doubt most south of NH border go above freezing . But I guess our main concern is do we all torch into the 40's, or can we all stay in the 30's and keep some snowcover? That's our concern if you willA few hours of cold rain in the lower 40s prob would not get rid of 2-4" of snow. Some for sure but I would think a little would survive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Will this be a prolonged rain event south of pike or is it a deal where it is snow to ice that ends in drizzle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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