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Jan 3-4 Storm Threat


CT Valley Snowman

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Couple quickies...

 

I was looking more closely at the NAM synoptic evolution of features through 30 hours (18z tomorrow).  I think that boundary (warm) may hang up in southern NH.  If you look closely at the 24 hour panel, there is a very small closed isobar just E of Cape Ann. 

 

That's probably an accurate assessment from a mesoscale model processing at less than 30 hours.  I would like to see the RGEM, too..   But, in the bottom 150mb of atmosphere along Rt 2 ...west of Bedford say ... the Ekman layer may not be scoured out by mid day.  

 

There's a detail about that ... The high could have certainly moved off by then, but if a small cyclonic feature closes off, the flow then is back around to the N and is less ageostrophic, and more at "backside". And the cold (however modified it may be at the time, not withstanding) tucks back into NE sections.  

 

I think that may retard the surface frontal positioning through mid day.  

 

CT?  forget it... You're looking actually convective in the QPF layout it.  

 

Also, I mentioned this the other day... There is a small ribbon of ANA suggested in for Sunday evening, and in fact, the NAM argues for a change to snow just before ending in Metrowest and out along the Pike.  It may be a dusting or and inch, but just thought I'd mention. 

 

Of course, much of this is predicated on an idea of the NAM not horribly sucking at 24 to 30 hours of lead, so -

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Thinking we get a coating here. I think we change over really quickly.

 

Over/under is 1".

 

Newark reporting snow even snow last obs.

These obs don't necessarily translate downstream Jerry.  Newark is further W than Taunton so we will see a warmer airmass aloft with the winds coming in off the ocean.

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Tip RGEM has the closed low south of Portsmouth east of Cape Ann too

 

Yeah, ..and I'm wondering if we there might be a kind of ...just when you thought we bust into the warm air, we sag back from the NE type deal. 

 

Not saying that it drills 29F air back into Bedford or anything, but it might cause a bit of delay for warmth. 

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Over/under is 1".

 

These obs don't necessarily translate downstream Jerry.  Newark is further W than Taunton so we will see a warmer airmass aloft with the winds coming in off the ocean.

EWR is right on the water....driven past it enough times to know that....lol.

But yes that's a good point but countering is the cad along the coast and better ago flow initially in eastern areas.

All I'm saying is it won't be hard to pick up a quick 1-2 before the change.

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EWR is right on the water....driven past it enough times to know that....lol.

But yes that's a good point but countering is the cad along the coast and better ago flow initially in eastern areas.

All I'm saying is it won't be hard to pick up a quick 1-2 before the change.

 

We'll see Jerry.  Better CAD is definitely N of this area up by Weymouth and points N.  We are likely similar in thoughts just coming off in different style.

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Can the NAM or RGEM pick out details that small?

 

Their grids are sufficiently small enough that one "might" be more reliant on them as a situation gets near and the nitty-gritty details have sensible weather implications/ impacts.  If that boundary does hang up over NE zones for a while, it might mean the difference between 35F mist, vs southwest to northeast aligned strata streaks in 56F moist balm.   ...Or even some icing lingering, not impossible. 

 

It matters... People impugn weather broadcasters for 20F busts ...haha.  seriously tho -

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