CT Valley Snowman Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 A general 1-4 on a Northwest to Southeast gradient across the interior. Icing will hold tough for awhile late Saturday night into early Sunday in the Pioneer Valley and the Northwest zones. I would think about 1.5 here in Enfield and I wouldn't be suprised if we stay in the low 30's while the hills to the east are close to 50 for a few hours on Sunday morning before the warmth finally mixes down. MPM may pull off a 3.5 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Don't see how 3-5 (TWC) or even 2-4 (NOAA) is possible for Lowell/Dracut. There's only 1 solid frame of snow on both the NAM and GFS before the warm air floods in. There's no high up north so where are they getting this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 How's that triple point lookin Looks like pretty decent thump North of MHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Radar looks pretty meh on a national scale for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 My local met is saying about an 1.5 inches of snow and sleet before a little icing and then heavy rain. Temps to be rise after midnight and then a high of about 52 on Sunday. I think this about right from an average of all models. Nice to see some accumalating snow since Thanksgiving. Hope everyone gets some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 My local met is saying about an 1.5 inches of snow and sleet before a little icing and then heavy rain. Temps to be rise after midnight and then a high of about 52 on Sunday. I think this about right from an average of all models. Nice to see some accumalating snow since Thanksgiving. Hope everyone gets some snow.Probably 3 inches of snow and 1/4 inch of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 RGEM backed off on the front end snow, and the GFS has been holding fairly steady, though perhaps not quite as ugly as it was a few runs ago. I think advisory snow accumulations will be tough to come by in SNE, but can't rule it out north of the pike if we get a good fronto band. But without that it's going to be a general 1-2 inches. On the non-snow front, the NAM actually lets that little triple point low go to town a bit to the point where it actually causes a a cold tuck for NE MA Sunday morning/midday...it may shorten the length of the torch there by several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 RGEM backed off on the front end snow, and the GFS has been holding fairly steady, though perhaps not quite as ugly as it was a few runs ago. I think advisory snow accumulations will be tough to come by in SNE, but can't rule it out north of the pike if we get a good fronto band. But without that it's going to be a general 1-2 inches. On the non-snow front, the NAM actually lets that little triple point low go to town a bit to the point where it actually causes a a cold tuck for NE MA Sunday morning/midday...it may shorten the length of the torch there by several hours. The high res models showed that as well. (BTV WRF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Probably 3 inches of snow and 1/4 inch of ice 1/4" of ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Radar looks pretty meh on a national scale for this lol, Does it look like crap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 RGEM backed off on the front end snow, and the GFS has been holding fairly steady, though perhaps not quite as ugly as it was a few runs ago. I think advisory snow accumulations will be tough to come by in SNE, but can't rule it out north of the pike if we get a good fronto band. But without that it's going to be a general 1-2 inches. On the non-snow front, the NAM actually lets that little triple point low go to town a bit to the point where it actually causes a a cold tuck for NE MA Sunday morning/midday...it may shorten the length of the torch there by several hours. Sounds about right. Probably a coating to a sloppy inch here. I'm not complaining and my same forecast from earlier this afternoon was not a swan dive. I know how these turn out around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Sounds about right. Probably a coating to a sloppy inch here. I'm not complaining and my same forecast from earlier this afternoon was not a swan dive. I know how these turn out around here. You make it sound like Woburn's climo for front enders is C-1"...lol. It's really not. Maybe down near the Canal is. You could easily pick up 2-3" still if there's a good band on the leading shield of precip. The limiting factor here is decent precip while the mid-levels support snow. The best precip may lag the mid-level warm layer a bit. But not a guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Will, with the new models coming in won't the WSWatches be dropped? Or is ice enough to keep it up? Would this even require a an advisory since it should all melt after 3am Sunday morning?just curious how these watches and advisories are issued? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 You make it sound like Woburn's climo for front enders is C-1"...lol. It's really not. Maybe down near the Canal is. You could easily pick up 2-3" still if there's a good band on the leading shield of precip. The limiting factor here is decent precip while the mid-levels support snow. The best precip may lag the mid-level warm layer a bit. But not a guarantee. Yeah I'm not sure what he means..lol. That's usually a good spot for these relative to other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Will, with the new models coming in won't the WSWatches be dropped? Or is ice enough to keep it up? Would this even require a an advisory since it should all melt after 3am Sunday morning?just curious how these watches and advisories are issued? Thanks It's not going to melt after 3am up there. You'll be below 32 through Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Will, with the new models coming in won't the WSWatches be dropped? Or is ice enough to keep it up? Would this even require a an advisory since it should all melt after 3am Sunday morning?just curious how these watches and advisories are issued? Thanks Any amount freezing rain is going to warrant an advisory, so those won't go anywhere. They'll convert the watches to advisories...there isn't enough ice to convert to a warning and 6"+ isn't happening around our area...prob not until at least up into central NH or a bit further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I feel like this may have a ton of sleet in some areas tomorrow evening. Such cold air under the torch aloft rushing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I feel like this may have a ton of sleet in some areas tomorrow evening. Such cold air under the torch aloft rushing in. Yeah it wouldn't surprise me if someone picked up a quick half inch of sleet or more after the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 1/4" of ice? Was going to say. I don't think I'll have a quarter ice for anyone in lower elevations. The higher terrain won't have as deep a cold layer though, so the Monadnocks and the like could get blasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Will, with the new models coming in won't the WSWatches be dropped? Or is ice enough to keep it up? Would this even require a an advisory since it should all melt after 3am Sunday morning?just curious how these watches and advisories are issued? Thanks Advisories aren't strictly snow based. Any amount of ice is an advisory, so any amount of snow with that ice would be a winter weather advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I feel like this may have a ton of sleet in some areas tomorrow evening. Such cold air under the torch aloft rushing in. Nice battle up here between the GFS and NAM wrt mid-level temps. The GFS is still relatively cold and all snow for a good 2-3hrs after the NAM starts pinging. The NAM profiles fit the typical SWFE climo though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I feel like this may have a ton of sleet in some areas tomorrow evening. Such cold air under the torch aloft rushing in. The soundings up here are really heavy on the sleet look. I'm struggling to find a good ZR sounding outside of the ME foothills. Which of course makes headline decision even more difficult. Though a rule of thumb is sleet criteria would be roughly a third of your snow criteria (or 2"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The soundings up here are really heavy on the sleet look. I'm struggling to find a good ZR sounding outside of the ME foothills. Which of course makes headline decision even more difficult. Though a rule of thumb is sleet criteria would be roughly a third of your snow criteria (or 2"). Down here, it looks like ti could rip sleet for a couple hours before going to ZR...the sounding is pretty cold in the lower levels even after that for a few hours longer, but I've noticed (and this is also in some old antiquated techniques) once the max temp in the warm layer gets above roughly 3-4C, then sleet is very difficult to produce, even with a really cold lower 100mb. I'm guessing the water droplets warm up enough to the point where they are difficult to refreeze into ice pellets...probably once they completely lose any remnant frozen core, it gets much tougher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Nice battle up here between the GFS and NAM wrt mid-level temps. The GFS is still relatively cold and all snow for a good 2-3hrs after the NAM starts pinging. The NAM profiles fit the typical SWFE climo though. It's a ton of warm air moving in, so my guess is the NAM may not be too far off, but it only takes an extra hour of rippage to surprise an inch or two extra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Down here, it looks like ti could rip sleet for a couple hours before going to ZR...the sounding is pretty cold in the lower levels even after that for a few hours longer, but I've noticed (and this is also in some old antiquated techniques) once the max temp in the warm layer gets above roughly 3-4C, then sleet is very difficult to produce, even with a really cold lower 100mb. I'm guessing the water droplets warm up enough to the point where they are difficult to refreeze into ice pellets...probably once they completely lose any remnant frozen core, it gets much tougher. That's pretty much what I've found too. At least prior to the dry slot up here, I have a hard time seeing much more than +2 in western ME. At least from glancing at the 12z Euro. NH torches pretty quickly aloft though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Interesting Bufkit, Nam more than half of Orhs precip is frozen with .22 frzrn .25 sleet 1.75 snow, Con has snow sleet but no freezing rain 1.75 snow .38 sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The soundings up here are really heavy on the sleet look. I'm struggling to find a good ZR sounding outside of the ME foothills. Which of course makes headline decision even more difficult. Though a rule of thumb is sleet criteria would be roughly a third of your snow criteria (or 2"). The heavy QPF Sunday morning may be a sign of fun for you. I suppose that may be more rain on the CP, maybe ZR inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 NAM Bufkit around KRUM, +7 warm nose but -4 at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The heavy QPF Sunday morning may be a sign of fun for you. I suppose that may be more rain on the CP, maybe ZR inland? It's so close, razor's edge really. I expect it to be rain, but it won't be very far inland where we could have trouble. PWM is like +1 at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 NAM Bufkit around KRUM, +7 warm nose but -4 at the surface. We scalp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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