weathafella Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 On 1/1/2015 at 6:09 PM, SnowMan said: 4 to 6 inches here then ice. I'll take it. MEX has KASH 51 for a high Sunday. You may well be taking that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 On 1/1/2015 at 6:26 PM, weathafella said: MEX has KASH 51 for a high Sunday. You may well be taking that.Possibly but we will see how long the cold can hold on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Are we tossing GFS profile and MEX now with other guidance colder or do we think torch roars north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 On 1/1/2015 at 6:40 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Are we tossing GFS profile and MEX now with other guidance colder or do we think torch roars north?Everyone is going to mix out at some point Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 On 1/1/2015 at 6:40 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Are we tossing GFS profile and MEX now with other guidance colder or do we think torch roars north? I'm pretty sure most people up to at least CON o so will get into the 40s eventually...perhaps 50+, but the question is how long. It might just be for a few hours on SW winds post FROPA if the triple point low is more defined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 On 1/1/2015 at 6:42 PM, dendrite said: Everyone is going to mix out at some point Sunday.Well what I mean is.. Do we stay chilly until cold fropa or do we scream south and roar temps and Dews into 40's and 50's. For your area we know the answer, for most of the rest of us it's important if we want to come out if this with snow left OTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 On 1/1/2015 at 6:09 PM, SnowMan said: 4 to 6 inches here then ice. I'll take it. 6 may be tougher to achieve, but a good advisory event anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 On 1/1/2015 at 6:42 PM, dendrite said: Everyone is going to mix out at some point Sunday. My call at this point (a guess as much as anything) is for 3-4 before the changeover with 1-2 remaining prior to the deep freeze as you head from Mitch to me to Dave. Obviously more as you go further north and less as you head below. 26.4/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 ALY still going with nothing all the up to Bennington county. If you look at Upton map, it has at least 2-4 to Lichfield county. Not sure why. I'm thinking at least 2-4 before change here and the Berk's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 On 1/1/2015 at 9:56 PM, tavwtby said: ALY still going with nothing all the up to Bennington county. If you look at Upton map, it has at least 2-4 to Lichfield county. Not sure why. I'm thinking at least 2-4 before change here and the Berk's Maybe they had a sneak-peak at the 18z GFS. What a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I think the BOX map is fairly reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Any clearer picture in how warm it gets and when after reviewing ensemble data and 18z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 On 1/1/2015 at 11:02 PM, ORH_wxman said: I think the BOX map is fairly reasonable. I assume that's what they anticipate at the point of max on ground, not at the end of the system. 2-4" is better than a sharp stick in the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Yeah I like that map. Looks good. Was hoping for an inch or two here if lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 On 1/1/2015 at 11:04 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Any clearer picture in how warm it gets and when after reviewing ensemble data and 18z runs? I have trouble seeing TOL getting to 50, but could be well into the 40s there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Going to need a real good burst here for 1-2". Our window is pretty small. Thinking more some flakes to start and then a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 On 1/1/2015 at 11:09 PM, Quincy said: I have trouble seeing TOL getting to 50, but could be well into the 40s there.Well the important part is does it happen after some good icing ending as drizzle post cold front or does it snow and Then roar south wind and rain? With a triple point you'd favor the former Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 What we may see is an explosion of precip almost over the pike region give or take 50 miles...it's not completely just going to be dependent on temps aloft, but how good the precip comes down...there's a nice burst of omega that pops up almost over SNE...the GFS is actually a bit too far north for us, but the Euro and NAM show it a bit more favorable. IF we can get that nice burst for 3-4 hours, then we could see some low end advisory amounts. But if something like the GFS verifies, it would be more like 3-4 hours of SN- that probably only accumulates an inch or so in most spots before a flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 On 1/1/2015 at 11:18 PM, ORH_wxman said: What we may see is an explosion of precip almost over the pike region give or take 50 miles...it's not completely just going to be dependent on temps aloft, but how good the precip comes down...there's a nice burst of omega that pops up almost over SNE...the GFS is actually a bit too far north for us, but the Euro and NAM show it a bit more favorable. IF we can get that nice burst for 3-4 hours, then we could see some low end advisory amounts. But if something like the GFS verifies, it would be more like 3-4 hours of SN- that probably only accumulates an inch or so in most spots before a flip. Seems like the GFS has the LLJ further west which may explain it. That's a real cold airmass so I would guess there is a band or two of decent snows that move in..esp ORH and north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Snowfall and ice maps from the good peeps at GYX. I'll be reporting live from Saddleback Mountain near Rangeley tonight thru Sunday. Should be fun times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Winter Storm Watches up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Winter storm watch for here nice to see its been far to long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 9:43 AM, MaineJayhawk said: Snowfall and ice maps from the good peeps at GYX. I'll be reporting live from Saddleback Mountain near Rangeley tonight thru Sunday. Should be fun times :) I'll be looking for the Saddleback reports. I think they'll be in a prime position to hang onto the snow for longer than most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 NWS pretty bullish for this area. Calling a general 3-5" here before we flip to freezing rain/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 BOX's take on accumulations (curiously, I don't see a map of progged ice accretion). Hopefully the mid-levels can hold off the warm onslaught to make those 4-6 ranges realistic. I had thought those would be the case earlier, but I tempered my expectations a notch yesterday. Not sure if the watch is warranted since neither snow nor ice will likely meet criteria. But, I guess if the mid-levels could stay cold a couple hours longer, criteria might be met. Also, I know advisories tend to be somewhat shorter fused--perhaps the watch will just heighten public awareness and they can scale back to WWA in subsequent releases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 WSW in SNE? I'll go out on a limb and say that won't be necessary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 12:29 PM, Damage In Tolland said: WSW in SNE? I'll go out on a limb and say that won't be necessary That's for icing too. But, moreso further north of like CEF IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 12:30 PM, CoastalWx said: That's for icing too. But, moreso further north of like CEF IMO. Finally models all agree on 2ndary/triple point passing south of us..so that will limit the warmth/heat to post fropa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Wonder if things ticked a bair colder last night.....I was bumped from 1-2" to 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I'd like to be in MPM's area for this..That area is going to see 3-5 inches of snow and a 1/4 -1/2 inch of ice..and not get much above 40 on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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