Jan 3-4 Storm Threat

[CT Valley Snowman]

most of the computer model data indicates energy will eject out of the southwestern United States possibly phasing with northern stream energy and producing a significant storm system with a primary surface reflection possibly passing west of New England with a possible secondary low redevelopment near the mid-atlantic or New England coast which could result in a variety of wintry weather headlines and impacts across the six state region.

[powderfreak]

So do we discuss weather models for this storm in here or not?  Or is this only storm obs?

[ORH_wxman]

So do we discuss weather models for this storm in here or not? Or is this only storm obs?

Any storm related analysis can go in here and that includes models. We just wanted to avoid the play by play discussion in here and the pattern thread so that is why we crated one for just models.It's probably a little early for this thread to exist but it's already here.

I may write something in here after the euro comes out. Sort of a general analysis of the threat based on the 12z suite.

We are trying to avoid the super thread mentality that contributes to disasters like the December thread turned into. People can still get their super thread fix if they want in the banter thread.

[CoastalWx]

Any storm related analysis can go in here and that includes models. We just wanted to avoid the play by play discussion in here and the pattern thread so that is why we crated one for just models.It's probably a little early for this thread to exist but it's already here.

I may write something in here after the euro comes out. Sort of a general analysis of the threat based on the 12z suite.

We are trying to avoid the super thread mentality that contributes to disasters like the December thread turned into. People can still get their super thread fix if they want in the banter thread.

That was supposed to be pattern change talk until idiots started swan diving.

[ORH_wxman]

That was supposed to be pattern change talk until idiots started swan diving.

 

Yeah, the thread title even was specific about it.

 

But anyways, going forward we'll keep the threads cleaner. The swan divers can have a free-for-all in the banter thread. There's something for everyone this way.

[Typhoon Tip]

We should start a grammar thread, too 

 

This has to be some kind of phenomenon in its self...

 

"most of the computer model data indicates energy will eject out of the southwestern United States possibly phasing with northern stream energy and producing a significant storm system with a primary surface reflection possibly passing west of New England with a possible secondary low redevelopment near the mid-atlantic or New England coast which could result in a variety of wintry weather headlines and impacts across the six state region. "

[ORH_wxman]

Well after reviewing the Euro just now, it appears we have started seeing a bit of convergence toward a solution on this storm. This is generally speaking and details will mean large differences in sensible wx.

 

All model guidance brings the primary low into the great lakes...but the intensity and longitude at which this occurs varies somewhat. The GGEM model is the strongest and furthest west with the primary...yet, even this solution does bring front end snows into SNE and likely a period of ice in the interior. The GFS is the least amplified and brings a longer period of snow before any mixing/changeover. The Euro currently sits between the two solutions.

 

 

What all guidance has done thus far though is trend colder with the initial airmass ahead of the storm. This is allowing for more front end snow even on some of these amped up solutions.

 

Given that we are still about 5 days out, a lot can change. However, I think some sort of front-ender is looking more likely. The duration of snow could be longer if the main shortwave ejecting out of the southwest US is more sheared and doesn't fully phase with the northern stream coming out of Canada. Those types of details are what will be determined over the next 36-48 hours...then beyond that, we will hone in on the finer details.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'd add that the N-stream coming bullying down like that to induce all this inland result ... could be overdone yet still.  

 

Those dynamics have yet to relay out of Siberia, so I'm a bit leery with the Euro's buck shot amplitude and placement all over the place spanning the last several runs. There's no continuity there, folks. 

 

I would not be surprised if this "consensus" is more "coincidental"   -- I'm giving this a nice day's worth of runs before committing to a consensus.   

 

...seeing as everyone gives a crap what I think...heh

[ORH_wxman]

I'd add that the N-stream coming bullying down like that to induce all this inland result ... could be overdone yet still.  

 

Those dynamics have yet to relay out of Siberia, so I'm a bit leery with the Euro buck shot amplitude and placement all over the place spanning the last several runs. There's no continuity there, folks. 

 

I would not be surprised if this "consensus" is more "coincidental"   -- I'm giving this a nice day's worth of runs before committing to a consensus.   

 

...seeing as every gives a crap what I think...heh

 

 

Yeah today is really the first day where there's been any sort of consensus in a general sense...so we could easily see that consensus fall apart next run.

 

But the whiff to the south idea is starting to look unlikely. We're probably getting some decent precip from this in one form or another.

[CoastalWx]

A whiff is pretty much not happening. Just saw the euro, you can see how much colder it is in Maine especially. Says something about the airmass ahead of it.

[Typhoon Tip]

A whiff is pretty much not happening. Just saw the euro, you can see how much colder it is in Maine especially. Says something about the airmass ahead of it.

 

Even with the higher res Euro ... that lowest 100mb of troposphere could be draining with the high retreating more NE than SE like that.  ...question is, how long?  

 

You'd have to get many hundreds of kilometers away from the center of that anticyclone before the gradient veers substantially enough, though.

 

But as Will just said and I concur, this is the first run that showed much agreement, and there are reasons said agreement might just be happenstance and not continue in future guidance.  

 

I kind of just want this one over with so that we can get into the meat of the cold air mass out in time.  We're more immersed in it out there next week, so any systems in the flow are more likely to be colder profiled (speaking for those that are really hard up for a winter landscape).  

 

Not that anyone asked .. but dry frozen ground is awesome for disk golf!  haha.  

[CoastalWx]

Even with the higher res Euro ... that lowest 100mb of troposphere could be draining with the high retreating more NE than SE like that.  ...question is, how long?  

 

You'd have to get many hundreds of kilometers away from the center of that anticyclone before the gradient veers substantially enough, though.

 

But as Will just said and I concur, this is the first run that showed much agreement, and there are reasons said agreement might just be happenstance and not continue in future guidance.  

 

I kind of just want this one over with so that we can get into the meat of the cold air mass out in time.  We're more immersed in it out there next week, so any systems in the flow are more likely to be colder profiled (speaking for those that are really hard up for a winter landscape).  

 

Not that anyone asked .. but dry frozen ground is awesome for disk golf!  haha.  

 

The big differences I see is the bg vortex northeast of us is a bit further SW (which happens) and the weak initial s/w flying northeast well ahead of the main one.

[adk]

So do we discuss weather models for this storm in here or not?  Or is this only storm obs?

 

NO. We discuss whether we can discuss the storm here or whether we should discuss the models showing the storm in the model thread which can't contain a discussion of the storm. That's for this thread which can't contain a discussion of models about the storm. 

Got it?

 

Good. 

 

I  have to agree a wiff is highly unlikely right about now.  More likely  a snow-to mixed event for the upper/interior N/E with heaviest possibly in the western Maine region. Dryslot works in during the "mixed" phase and upper level low with surface feature works over the region 12hrs (sunday night) later.  Mtns get a decent thump from that as winds veer to the N/W. 

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z EPS mean has a really nice front end dump from the LHV and points north and east.

[CT Valley Snowman]

We should start a grammar thread, too

This has to be some kind of phenomenon in its self...

"most of the computer model data indicates energy will eject out of the southwestern United States possibly phasing with northern stream energy and producing a significant storm system with a primary surface reflection possibly passing west of New England with a possible secondary low redevelopment near the mid-atlantic or New England coast which could result in a variety of wintry weather headlines and impacts across the six state region. "

I don't see what is terribly wrong with that statement .?

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't see what is terribly wrong with that statement .?

 

No worries - just kiddin' dude.  It's a bit of a run-on sentence, tho -

[CT Valley Snowman]

yeah you're right about that it is very long winded, I was just trying to get out one cohesive statement.

[dryslot]

Like this one coming up, A nice SWFE type event, Usually good for 6"+

[eyewall]

It is definitely in cutter territory which means another rainer for at least a portion of the storm. It will be interesting to see what happens on the front end with a snow to zr to rain scenario. On the back end hopefully the mountains up here can salvage an upslope event.

[powderfreak]

It is definitely in cutter territory which means another rainer for at least a portion of the storm. It will be interesting to see what happens on the front end with a snow to zr to rain scenario. On the back end hopefully the mountains up here can salvage an upslope event.

Not worried about much rain dude...unless a GGEM type storm occurrs. It may end as a 32-34F -RN/DZ, but especially east of the Spine that's a solid net gain as modeled.

[eyewall]

Not worried about much rain dude... It may end as a 32-34F -RN/DZ, but especially east of the Spine that's a solid net gain as modeled.

 

Yeah taking a deeper look into it you appear to be correct there. There is some moisture and the possibility of a spoke or two of energy in the main system's wake as well (at least looking at the Euro and vort advection in the mid levels).

[HIPPYVALLEY]

This one is coming, tonight's overnight runs will be the first I start to pay attention to. The antecedent cold looks decent and I'm liking this set up for NW MA. A classic swfe set up where we thump, we sleet, we finish with light fzra going over to a 32.5F mist. Then lock it up with some deep cold.

Sounds good to me.

[dryslot]

This one is coming, tonight's overnight runs will be the first I start to pay attention to. The antecedent cold looks decent and I'm liking this set up for NW MA. A classic swfe set up where we thump, we sleet, we finish with light fzra going over to a 32.5F mist. Then lock it up with some deep cold.

Sounds good to me.

Models will start to pick up on this and place some more in the game for frozen

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Models will start to pick up on this and place some more in the game for frozen

.

Yeah, I won't stay up for 0z runs but I'll start getting interested in model consistency tomorrow as far as cold and cad are concerned. We trend colder. Interested to see the modeled strength of the SL and timing of the sw energy.

[Damage In Tolland]

50's on Sunday with a cold high position there..lol? Umm no..Better chance of staying 32 or below than 50's,

[jamesnichols89]

GFS is more likely correct than the EURO at this range in regards to the amplified clipper system rather than the suppressed garbage machine as lacking a block would force the system closer to the coastline, or over the coastal plain.

[moneypitmike]

50's on Sunday with a cold high position there..lol? Umm no..Better chance of staying 32 or below than 50's,

 

BOX is splitting the difference in their forecasts with 40's.

 

13.4/8 off a low of 11.3.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Arnold, what do they show for the 7-8th clipper?

You are allowed to call him Eck

Disconcerting to see the Euro having waffles at this juncture

[Damage In Tolland]

euro ens mean has tolland getting into the mid to upper 40s Sun.

Hopefully you have taken the under..the waaaay under. When the normally warm GFS is ice cold..should tell us something

[OceanStWx]

You are allowed to call him Eck

Disconcerting to see the Euro having waffles at this juncture

 

A good breakfast is the foundation of any day. And I do think I'm going to start calling him Arnold.

 

The high did peel out a little more quickly on this run, hence the flooding of warmth northward. Still think up this way we'll pull out a decent front end thump even from that type of scenario.