CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Para says what front end in SNE? Maybe a very brief burst of snow chnanging to mostly rain. NNE is snow/mix/rain on this run I doubt it would be that warm, esp inland..not with that high We've seen this movie a million times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 GFSP doesn't look too bad for you folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I doubt it would be that warm, esp inland..not with that high We've seen this movie a million times. Yes, And will change more as we get closer in, Models under estimate the cold as stated numerous times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Why do folks continue to analyze the Para when it's been awful...it's close to the nam as to being utterly useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Why do folks continue to analyze the Para when it's been awful...it's close to the nam as to being utterly useless. It will be all you have in another couple weeks or so unfortunately, From what i have seen from it so far as it tends to trend much slower to its eventual solution then some of the other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 GFS is frigid next week. days and days of chapstick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 -40°F not out of the question Northwestern Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Why do folks continue to analyze the Para when it's been awful...it's close to the nam as to being utterly useless. Because soon it will be the only version of the GFS. It does beg the question though, is there a point where they push back full adoption of the upgraded version because it has been so poor, or are they continually tweaking it in order to have it completely ready for the switch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Appears out of the majors ... the GFS oper. is the most stable across the last three cycles. 00, 06, and now this 12z run, the handling of the surface features are really quite similar to one another. There are differences aloft that are a bit more obvious, but don't appear to effect much below. Most of those have to do with timing the jet maxes as they rub by and or more purely phase. It's interesting how the GGEM went from so flat to so amplified across a single new run like that. I am highly confident in my assessment yesterday, that the degree of phasing is the whole story with this thing. Others have mentioned since (or before...) but clearly, if you take any model in the cornucopia of solutions, the ones more amplified/West are the ones with more phase. Someone mentioned that the N-stream diving in ... those dynamics are still over Siberia? If so, that's probably one of the most important observations leveled this morning. I am sure that assimilation is hard work over "Siberia" ... where outside of a polar bear dining on a caribou carcass one may find a weather balloon/dropsonde rig, sure ... Be that as it may, other than the stream interaction, the handling of lead polar high over SE Canada is important. After it sets up a CAD signal in the barographic layout, if that high is so much as 6-hours later (imo) in it's slide off to the east, that system has no hope of going to liquid ...probarbly as far S as Bradely to Providence *(just taking the mean of the last three GFS cycle depictions). And actually, that would be true even in an exotically west solution like the GGEM. I've seen stem winder lows over Michigan squeeze out warm boundary waves for having stubborn high pressure there. The other thing in the dizzying array of details to iron out is... is it 33F everywhere, or does the term "ice" actually verify. You can set up the same sort of cold entrenched, CADy look, but it's a 32.4 sort of affair. The key is fresh ageostrophic input of lower DP... If that source is upper 20s, it offsets both latent head of ice transition and conduction, and that's the key for 31.5 -vs- 33/34 But that would be later innings.. In terms of total sensible weather, we used to call these "kitchen sink" storms up at UML. I mean, you start out arctic, pass through the subtropics, en route back into the deep freeze. If a GGEM verbatim solution took place, someone gets a snow to ice to rain, with thunder, wild south winds to 55mph in 60F DP, then flash freeze. But I don't think the GGEM solution is going to pan out too well here... Just a hunch. For one, it was amazing yesterday that it was as flat as it was. That model takes the Euro tendency to over amplify features in the middle range out behind the shed! It's really a horrible model.. Anyway, whatever the cause for the flattening yesterday, this 00z run from last night looks like some higher management sent out an email memo giving it carte blanche to lube its self up. Won't say it is impossible until that Siberian critter gets into the denser grid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 If they tweak it in any way. They will restart the 30 day evaluation. I believe they will be going over the results of the 30 day evaluation around Jan 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 GFS is frigid next week. days and days of chapstick Phil, do you think its depiction of cold is likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 GEM is a wound up cutter again...though the front side is probably a bit colder than the 00z run. The antecedent airmass ahead of the system has been looking colder, independent of the actual storm evolution that comes after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Why do folks continue to analyze the Para when it's been awful...it's close to the nam as to being utterly useless. Well i would hope the rip and read met community (not here) either goes to euro or else on air forecasts could be ...interesting with this para model seemingly volatile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Phil, do you think its depiction of cold is likely overall, yes. not necessarily the exact timing of what seems to be a couple of reinforcing surges of cold but i think next week is pretty darn cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Well i would hope the rip and read met community (not here) either goes to euro or else on air forecasts could be ...interesting with this para model seemingly volatile Yes, I'm looking forward to alot of on air busts. Makes a place like this become even more valuable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Here is a possible red flag, the 12z GFS-ENS-2P5 which is the ensemble mean for the PGFS, only deepens the low to 1016mb and sends it more towards Toronto instead of Detroit. That could be a sign that this should be less amplified like the GFS OP shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Kind of crazy how the GFS is the coldest model for this..whereas usually it's the warmest as it handles CAD so poorly. Not sure that even means anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Kind of crazy how the GFS is the coldest model for this..whereas usually it's the warmest as it handles CAD so poorly. Not sure that even means anything I think it means quite a bit, And others will probably follow, I think it has a better handle on these SWFE type events whereas the Euro does not handle the energy coming out of the SW well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Not the greatest look in Eastern MA but I'll take it over dry weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Not the greatest look in Eastern MA but I'll take it over dry weather Gfs should give us some snow at yours and my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 12z GGEM is actually a decent front end dumping for parts of New England followed by ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Euro is pretty amped up over CLE. Still some frozen to start though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Euro is pretty amped up over CLE. Still some frozen to start though. That's a bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 Yeah not as good as GFS for SNE...but still a decent thump of snow...perhaps advisory N of pike. You can see though how much work the WAA has to do to erode that antecedent airmass. So this is going to have to be watched. I wouldn't be surprised if the primary ends up weaker in future runs with that damming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 That mid-level CAD puts up a hell of a fight in CNE/NNE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Euro is pretty amped up over CLE. Still some frozen to start though. Yeah but I have to admit surprise when e solution evolved considering the early panels. I'd say it's a Cleveland bomb but it's more like a Cleveland firecracker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Euro is pretty amped up over CLE. Still some frozen to start though. So ... in the 24 hours the Euro has ranged from absolutely nothing ... to absolutely phasing so much so that it rips Lake Superior into a Fitzgerald frenzy... Meanwhile, the GFS has been vastly more stable with run to run variations that are comparatively unnoticeable. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Yeah not as good as GFS for SNE...but still a decent thump of snow...perhaps advisory N of pike. You can see though how much work the WAA has to do to erode that antecedent airmass. So this is going to have to be watched. I wouldn't be surprised if the primary ends up weaker in future runs with that damming. 12z Sun is about 4C colder throughout ME versus the 00z run. Snowing up at FVE with 2m single digits too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 That mid-level CAD puts up a hell of a fight in CNE/NNE though. Man that is an icy look on the Euro after the initial thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 12z Sun is about 4C colder throughout ME versus the 00z run. Snowing up at FVE with 2m single digits too. Goes back to what I said about the models in the past run or two...all of them have trended colder with the antecedent airmass regardless how they have changed with the storm itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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