Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Dude, read a model. I just read your post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I just read your post You did not read correctly. C'mon man. "It's means we have WAA preceding the low which is why it's borderline rain on the coast and rain on the Cape." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 You did not read correctly. C'mon man. "It's means we have WAA preceding the low which is why it's borderline rain on the coast and rain on the Cape." The coast and Cape are the same thing. I looked at the Euro and saw all i needed to see. Pattern is progressive. It's OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The coast and Cape are the same thing. I looked at the Euro and saw all i needed to see. Pattern is progressive. It's OTS That doesn't mean rainer everywhere as you seemed to imply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Some of the Euro ensemble members that are really amped also push the heaviest snows Nw of SNE. Multiple things to be concerned about without good blocking but a nice stormy signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Good thing Kevin has his coveted euro for Wednesday night. Why even look at the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It is a stormy look on the ensembles. First time we've really had this nice PNA spike coincide with a s/w diving SE all winter really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Good thing Kevin has his coveted euro for Wednesday night. Why even look at the GFS? The GFS wasn't right either lol. Every single model sucks. You can't make any accurate forecasts anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The NW trend hasn't exactly stopped yet on the Euro and its ensemble members although you would think with a more progressive pattern and the northern stream kicker this would be hard going extremely far west but perhaps a really good phase and a nuked out storm could almost go straight north directly over us. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The NW trend hasn't exactly stopped yet on the Euro and its ensemble members although you would think with a more progressive pattern and the northern stream kicker this would be hard going extremely far west but perhaps a really good phase and a nuked out storm could almost go straight north directly over us. Any thoughts?Yes, it could. Get that northern energy phased better and we could theoretically rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The GFS wasn't right either lol. Every single model sucks. You can't make any accurate forecasts anymore every model has biases and perform better in certain set up than others. In these type of prgressive patterns it's really hard to trust anything within 3 days. Euro flipping back south on the Clipper when it's only a day and a half away is pretty ugly but the difference is trivial, we're talking about a coatng versus an inch or two.I still have a hard time believing we will go completely dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This is the worst all around model performance we have ever seen. At least in my time that i can remember. Every single model has been atrocious either all the time or at various times. There just isn't any confidence that anyone can issue when putting out a forecast. Even 1-2 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Man o man Oh how I pray for you that the Euro is not up to its over-amplified antics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That was a pretty snowy op and ensemble euro run seemingly flying under the radar this morning because the coating 1/21 may be canceled... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This is the worst all around model performance we have ever seen. At least in my time that i can remember. Every single model has been atrocious either all the time or at various times. There just isn't any confidence that anyone can issue when putting out a forecast. Even 1-2 days out And why it's harped upon endlessly to not take any solution a model show seriously until a max. 2-3 days out. We should all know this by now that a fast progressive flow is not one the models are good at deciphering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That was a pretty snowy op and ensemble euro run seemingly flying under the radar this morning because the coating 1/21 may be canceled... It's been on my radar for a week. Boo-Hoo people miss out on a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This storm aint going much further west than the Op runs currently have, the system in Canada is most likely to act as a kicker, not a phaser and the trof in the East is positioned too far East, its way more likely to go out to sea than to come more than 50-100 miles west of the current position, to come inland or west of that is probably like the Buffalo Sabres making the playoffs. Even a benchmark track and the airmass is somewhat lousy, I did not look closely for SNE but NYC and LI would definitely be rain for 3-4 hours to start and then probably flip to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's been on my radar for a week. Boo-Hoo people miss out on a coating.Yup. And the weekend, while still most likely a miss SE as of current guidance, just got a LOT more interesting over the past 24 hours.Which is also why I am not investing in the follow up threat as of now...too much is still changing prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 0Z EURO and 6z GFS are so different today! A completely different outlook. Gfs looks relatively dry while Euro has a parade if storms near the bm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That was a pretty snowy op and ensemble euro run seemingly flying under the radar this morning because the coating 1/21 may be canceled... Who cares..We've seen that all winter with nothing to show for it. We're likely looking at a miss OTS this weekend and a miss or glancing blow next week. No reason to think otherwise based on seasonal pattern and persistence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Dgex ftw? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Who cares..We've seen that all winter with nothing to show for it. We're likely looking at a miss OTS this weekend and a miss or glancing blow next week. No reason to think otherwise based on seasonal pattern and persistence.I'm may actually agree with you on the outcomes over the next 10 days. Every time we've had a good ridge it has been assaulted by the PAC. Mjo into the cod probably won't help that, although someone more knowledgeable can chime in.Maybe a slight blip in the PNA, but nothing on the CPC site screams east coast snowstorm to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'm may actually agree with you on the outcomes over the next 10 days. Every time we've had a good ridge it has been assaulted by the PAC. Mjo into the cod probably won't help that, although someone more knowledgeable can chime in. Maybe a slight blip in the PNA, but nothing on the CPC site screams east coast snowstorm to me. Anyone that thinks the Euro is going to be right on the weekend or early next week is going to be disappointed again. With no blocking everything is shunted OTS. Euro couldn't even get the clipper right 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Cape Cod where? If you miss the satire you miss the satire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 If you miss the satire you miss the satireI didn't, I was playing along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 At the least, A couple more threats to keep an eye on, Going forward looks like things will get more interesting as well, About all you can focus on right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Emotions > science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The reasoning of that is the way it has been so that is the way its going to be is flawed, inaccurate and not based in science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The reasoning of that is the way it has been so that is the way its going to be is flawed, inaccurate and not based in science. Only need to look at this past weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Only need to look at this past weekend.Do the OPs reflect -PNA, +ao +NAO ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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