weathafella Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yeah, we should all trust Kevin's razor sharp cutting insights into synoptic Meteorology -- considering how this run from two days ago was more amped than last night... John, Kevin is right. Run to run, not run vs 4 runs back. The last 2 runs trended back. We'll know in a half hour which way this one goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Gfs 3 days out on yesterday's tempest had it as a fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Gfs 3 days out on yesterday's tempest had it as a fropa. A solution that would have allowed for a more impressive (amped) clipper...oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 What?! No -- you folks are talking from minds that want it to snow. Clearly. Your trying to sell that 2 run trend is better sample set than a 4 run trend? Think about that for minute ... Not engaging in this conversation any further. I never was talking about whether that system would impact the area or not, in the first place for f sake. Jesus Christ. You guys are so sensitive in your snow obsession, if anyone dare mention a flatter solution you gotta pounce. No. You cherry picked an amped run and then show done 4 runs later neglecting the trend to bring it closer after the nadir of flatness in between. You need to get laid but don't eat before you do...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I think all that kevin was trying to say was the euro jogged NW and brought measurable precip back into the region VS. the 12z run (only), which is true. The 00Z run last night was better than the previous 12Z run but 4, 5, 6 runs back it had measurable precip as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 No. You cherry picked an amped run and then show done 4 runs later neglecting the trend to bring it closer after the nadir of flatness in between. You need to get laid but don't eat before you do...lol. I don't do that... There was more than one run that was more amped. The deeper time framed trend was to flatten that, and you know ... why the hell am I arguing with opstetrician about this subject matter? Jerry - it's not going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I don't do that... There was more than one run that was more amped. The deeper time framed trend was to flatten that, and you know. Jerry - it's not going to snow. The default this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The default this winter. Some believe that bad winters are caused by the purchase of a snowblower. I believe you should've never dangled liquor my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The default this winter. The other thing... 1956 it snowed like 60 inches from 4 blockbuster storms in March after a paltry year. You'd know better than I -- I may not be perfect with those numbers, but the gist is that winter isn't over until May really - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The other thing... 1956 it snowed like 60 inches from 4 blockbuster storms in March after a paltry year. You'd know better than I -- I may not be perfect with those numbers, but the gist is that winter isn't over until May really - I would submit that much more often than not, you can discount April as a winter month and feel safe in doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Swing (n) 1. When a weather model shows an outcome inconsistent with its previous run and doesn't currently show snow. 2. When a weather model shows an outcome consistent with its previous run and doesn't currently show snow. See also: Unreliable, garbage Trend (n) 1. When a weather model shows an inconsistent outcome from its previous run and does currently show snow, especially when said model previously did not show snow. 2. When the NAM at 84 hours is farther north than all other guidance. See also: Key upcoming run, SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Smoke it if ya got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I would submit that much more often than not, you can discount April as a winter month and feel safe in doing so. Heh, yeah, I hate April in general... There can be some ecstatically pleasant days, particularly when the wind is calm and it's firstly 60+ in near full sun. But over the longer term, Aprils are usually too clouded by back door fronts, cut-off west Atlantic lows ..etc. and cold that only serves to retard the onset of spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Heh, yeah, I hate April in general... There can be some ecstatically pleasant days, particularly when the wind is calm and it's firstly 60+ in near full sun. But over the longer term, Aprils are usually too clouded by back door fronts, cut-off west Atlantic lows ..etc. and cold that only serves to retard the onset of spring. Serves to retard indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Calm down bitches and start analyzing models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Calm down bitches and start analyzing models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Calm down bitches and start analyzing models. Alright now the 72 -hour 12z Euro looks a bit further out with weak low pressure, but has a west-east oriented band of > 90% RH at 700mb. That's usually a precipitating column and given the trajectory of mid level wind proturbance there's likely to be a weak frontogenic signature there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro is interesting for day 5-6...looks like a near miss, hard to tell w/ 24 hour maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro has a mega coastal bomb (961mb) offshore next sat and sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 That's a big low just off the Carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Takes it ots but holy moly that's a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The kicker may scoot this offshore at the last moment. The GGEM and Euro now show something very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro has a mega coastal bomb (961mb) offshore next sat and sunday. You know what's funny ? The Frankenmodel, "NAVGEM" clocks I-95 with a K.U. in that same time frame. Actually someone posted the chart above... If so... hmm, would we have to give credit to THAT model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 A lot of scenarios in play with that look. That could do everything from cut further west or go out to sea. A little more interaction and phase we would have a dumping on our hands. Could also mean it rains on some of us. Be careful what you wish for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 First storm is buh-bye. Not happening in this pattern. It's that follow up deal that the ensembles really like. You can see this on the euro op too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Good thing euro has been bad outside of 96hrs this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Right on cue euro has something nice brewing for 1/26, the date many picked for the beginning of the better snow pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Right on cue euro has something nice brewing for 1/26, the date many picked for the beginning of the better snow pattern. It was always after the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 First storm is buh-bye. Not happening in this pattern. It's that follow up deal that the ensembles really like. You can see this on the euro op too. Yeah, there is actually pretty decent model agreement for the offshore bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 And if you were a "gambler" what are the chances of getting an event on the 26th??.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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