ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 I was right about it being south but for the wrong reason. We know the clipper is a miss. There's no reason to hope or think it still has a chance Well that's fine of you thought it was going to be a miss, but you want to understand why it might do that for future forecasting purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I wouldn't hang my hat on the end of the week right now. That may be a bit too far offshore, but that system was really iffy. It's still early though..I know some ensemble members were a little closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Scooter, what were your thoughts on why you initially thought the miss potential was much greater to the north than to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Scooter, what were your thoughts on why you initially thought the miss potential was much greater to the north than to the south? We saw a lot more northern tracks when the MLK system was forecasted to be much further east. Almost like a glorified FROPA. That would have been a more progressive setup and the clipper shortwave would have tracked more from like ohio to SNE. But the much more amped up MLK solutions are causing basically a temporary block downstream and forcing the clipper south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Scooter, what were your thoughts on why you initially thought the miss potential was much greater to the north than to the south? I thought today's system would be a little more progressive and further east which gives room to this tracking closer. Instead, the EC turned out to be right, and the confluence tries to force it south. However, now the system is a bit stronger than I thought too. I didn't expect a rather stout and digging s/w like what's shown on the EC. Basically, I didn't buy a southern, sheared out mess. However, it's possible it's a southern track, but stronger. Hopefully it ticks back north or it's wrong by me, but they were just thoughts. I wouldn't have forecasted that...they were preliminary opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 We saw a lot more northern tracks when the MLK system was forecasted to be much further east. Almost like a glorified FROPA. That would have been a more progressive setup and the clipper shortwave would have tracked more from like ohio to SNE. But the much more amped up MLK solutions are causing basically a temporary block downstream and forcing the clipper south. So then why are you not totally ruling it out and waiting for 00z runs to confirm what it seems you already know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 NAM completely unimpressed by clipper.. For anyone! Cept for maybe a coating for Jersey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Thanks guys. I'd rather have the stronger s/w at this point I think, to have a shot at a decent event. A weak unorganized mess that drops an inch in places where the radar isn't shredded to crap doesn't do it for me personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 So then why are you not totally ruling it out and waiting for 00z runs to confirm what it seems you already know? Because the shortwave has trended stronger. It still may make a run at us. But it would have been a lot easier if we kept tonight's system weaker and more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I agree with Will, much to the chagrin of Kevin. These things have a habit of doing funny things, especially since guidance is not in agreement. 6z GFS just reversed from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Because the shortwave has trended stronger. It still may make a run at us. But it would have been a lot easier if we kept tonight's system weaker and more progressive. Ok..playing along here for conjecture..what would allow it to make a run at us still? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Ok..playing along here for conjecture..what would allow it to make a run at us still?Have a strong shortwave with consolidated vortmax and perhaps have today's storm lift northeast jus a bit faster than shown once it is up in Maine and Quebec. There's actually multiple vort maxes in the flow and we want the most consolidated version of this. It's fairly potent on some runs so you still have to watch as it can cause enough downstream ridging to swing this thing north northeast at the last second. I wouldn't be bullish on the clipper right now but I wouldn't 100% toss it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Last night's EC really complicated the flow behind the s/w responsible for the clipper and across Ontario. That plays apart in this mess as well. There is quite a bit of disagreement still in guidance. I know the GFS and Canadian aren't inspiring for guidance, but the disagreement is enough to hold up on writing it off too. I don't know what it going on, but models are just all over the place lately both in the short term and medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I don't know what it going on, but models are just all over the place lately both in the short term and medium range. Tropical forcing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Basically, no one has any idea what's going to happen. And that's understandable given that guidance s*cks and seemingly hasn't gotten any better in years. That's not true at all. We've significantly improved short and long term forecasts. The problem is that every model is available to the public out to two weeks for everyone to see. Years ago, it was not like that. You rarely will see short term busts like we had even 10 yrs ago, but people complain now when heights lower in AK by a couple of hundred meters at like day 12..lol. It's perception. When the chaotic atmosphere is modeled and on display for everyone to see, it can create a false sense of numerical guidance. Fact is, NWP is probably one of the greatest advances in science to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Tropical forcing? It could be, could be the stratosphere too...or a combo of several different factors. Sometimes in certain patterns..a little change in something initially can snowball down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 That's not true at all. We've significantly improved short and long term forecasts. The problem is that every model is available to the public out to two weeks for everyone to see. Years ago, it was not like that. You rarely will see short term busts like we had even 10 yrs ago, but people complain now when heights lower in AK by a couple of hundred meters at like day 12..lol. It's perception. When the chaotic atmosphere is modeled and on display for everyone to see, it can create a false sense of numerical guidance. Fact is, NWP is probably one of the greatest advances in science to date. Well that's why I threw that 'seemingly' qualifier in there lol. I know on paper that NWP has advanced consistently, but we're certainly not beyond having absolutely atrocious model performance. Certain patterns magnify that more clearly than others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 That's not true at all. We've significantly improved short and long term forecasts. The problem is that every model is available to the public out to two weeks for everyone to see. Years ago, it was not like that. You rarely will see short term busts like we had even 10 yrs ago, but people complain now when heights lower in AK by a couple of hundred meters at like day 12..lol. It's perception. When the chaotic atmosphere is modeled and on display for everyone to see, it can create a false sense of numerical guidance. Fact is, NWP is probably one of the greatest advances in science to date. You don't have to travel too far back in time to when your only options were the NGM and much, much coarser resolution GFS. The Euro was just a rumor to most people, something you rarely saw glimpses of. It was much easier for a rogue shortwave to sneak through the model mesh and deliver a surprise 1-3" or 2-4". Now we can see modeled duck fart snow squalls at day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Well that's why I threw that 'seemingly' qualifier in there lol. I know on paper that NWP has advanced consistently, but we're certainly not beyond having absolutely atrocious model performance. Certain patterns magnify that more clearly than others Well definitely true about patterns. Models hate patterns like this where we have big amplification, but also progression. Contrast that to 2010 when we could track snowstorms within 50 miles at like day 7. Those blocking patterns are easier on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Tracking threats from 7 days out will certainly give a perception of worse model performance than it really is. But it is true that models do perform better in some patterns. Lack of downstream blocking will make storm tracks volatile. One of the worst things IMHO has been all the great graphics out to day 10 on every model. I mean, the graphics themselves are nice and it's great to read maps easier, however, it's a total sh**show now when every 204 hour blizzard is tweeted and weenies all start actually tracking it as if it means anything. Actual meteorologists are guilty of this too. The graphics are better and may be more available to the public, but it does not mean that a 192 hour threat is any bit more useful to look at on guidance than it was in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 You don't have to travel too far back in time to when your only options were the NGM and much, much coarser resolution GFS. The Euro was just a rumor to most people, something you rarely saw glimpses of. It was much easier for a rogue shortwave to sneak through the model mesh and deliver a surprise 1-3" or 2-4". Now we can see modeled duck fart snow squalls at day 4. Yeah I know it. We have Ginxy tracking a line of squalls dropping a coating, from 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 NWP is incredible if you ever read into how it works. I mean, it blows my mind when you see the complexity of it. For it to predict the atmosphere like it does using governing equations...it's really beyond anything imaginable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 NWP is incredible if you ever read into how it works. I mean, it blows my mind when you see the complexity of it. For it to predict the atmosphere like it does using governing equations...it's really beyond anything imaginable. You say it as if the governing equations are simple arithmetic But yeah, it is incredible how it all works. A lot of very very smart people are involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 You say it as if the governing equations are simple arithmetic But yeah, it is incredible how it all works. A lot of very very smart people are involved. No, the opposite. The complexity and the shear number of them..it's really something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Looks like the GFS develops the low a lot earlier now compared to 6z, but a bit too far east right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 NWP is incredible if you ever read into how it works. I mean, it blows my mind when you see the complexity of it. For it to predict the atmosphere like it does using governing equations...it's really beyond anything imaginable. It's amazing how well it does given all of the assumptions used in representing and integrating the dynamic equations, all of the physics parametrizations and the assimilation of observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It's amazing how well it does given all of the assumptions used in representing and integrating the dynamic equations, all of the physics parametrizations and the assimilation of observations. Great summary. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Scott, I think the GFS is just a tad too far southeast for the heaviest snows to impact the area. The GFS develops a comma head in the 700mb fields and strong lift within the comma head edges the Cape and Islands. I think this will end up a lot more potent in tomorrow's 12z runs, once the energy is sampled this will come in a lot stronger and a faster intensification. The only difference between this one and the last clipper is that this clipper the shortwave vort max is intensifying coming by our longitude, rather than weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Scott, I think the GFS is just a tad too far southeast for the heaviest snows to impact the area. The GFS develops a comma head in the 700mb fields and strong lift within the comma head edges the Cape and Islands. I think this will end up a lot more potent in tomorrow's 12z runs, once the energy is sampled this will come in a lot stronger and a faster intensification. The only difference between this one and the last clipper is that this clipper the shortwave vort max is intensifying coming by our longitude, rather than weakening. If that is the case, I would like to see the Canadian and euro come back north a bit starting at 12z. Well, at the very least, stop the south push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 once the energy is sampled this will come in a lot stronger and a faster intensification. Other than wishcasting, what is your reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.