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Model discussion thread


ORH_wxman

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That's always the problem. People look at qpf and assume that's the outcome..lol. I mean that's like intro to meteorology stuff in 8th grade that you don't do that

It's nobody's fault...it's an easy prog to grab these days. 

 

It could still go south, but verbatim...I think SNE is still in the game for sure. 

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It's nobody's fault...it's an easy prog to grab these days. 

 

It could still go south, but verbatim...I think SNE is still in the game for sure. 

All i know is I was scolded(not by you) yesterday for saying the danger of this was missing us to the south and it getting sheared out. I actually feel better about us getting snow now as that track the Euro shows is a nice solid high end advisory look

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I will agree the MLB model looks good so all in the game.

But ths winter in general is an uber ratter given how uncomfortably cold it is with little snow to show for it. This winter has work to do. The progrs look great but they have since Christmas.

you just gave me 2013 deja vu. You didn't like the Miller B parade on the GEFS and EPS?
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All i know is I was scolded(not by you) yesterday for saying the danger of this was missing us to the south and it getting sheared out. I actually feel better about us getting snow now as that track the Euro shows is a nice solid high end advisory look

 

I also disagreed with that at the time, thinking the risk was also weaker and possibly overhead. I would say if it does slide south, it's not because it will be a weak POS system. 

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you just gave me 2013 deja vu. You didn't like the Miller B parade on the GEFS and EPS?

Lol....I like virtual. I crave reality as in I'll enjoy looking at the prog but will not take it to the bank outside of a few days. All that said, I'll still be surprised if BOS doesn't make AOA normal for the season.

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Lol....I like virtual. I crave reality as in I'll enjoy looking at the prog but will not take it to the bank outside of a few days. All that said, I'll still be surprised if BOS doesn't make AOA normal for the season.

It's hard for BOS not to come near normal with all this cold we've had.  I'm with you though.  I crave reality too.  A parade of Miller Bs in fantasy land are nice to see, but that's about it.  I need interesting solutions within 72 hours. 

 

EURO likes this clipper, so I'd like to see more guidance come up from meh to maybe 2-4" soon.

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I explained my reasons why it should be south/not north

And it was totally backwards. You said a weaker FROPA wave tomorrow night would make a squashed track. Yet, ever since this became a bit more wrapped up along the front and further west, it's trended a bit south. The better pattern for the clipper is if tomorrow night's trough is less amplified.

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Parade of potential miller B systems. Hopefully the NAO slows at least one down but I wouldn't bet the farm on that.

I don't mind miller b's. All the storms are progressive in this pattern it seems though.

I think pattern looks great for ski country. Cold and snowy.

I think PF gets an isothermal dumping tomorrow too.

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Pretty good parade.

 

That ridge axis over the west coast is a good one on the EPS. It's interesting that it's in combo with that block over the Bering Sea. You would expect more of a -PNA IMO, but low and behold.  The clipper was a bit south of the op on the EPS, but really healthy looking. Fingers crossed.

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Pretty good parade.

 

That ridge axis over the west coast is a good one on the EPS. It's interesting that it's in combo with that block over the Bering Sea. You would expect more of a -PNA IMO, but low and behold.  The clipper was a bit south of the op on the EPS, but really healthy looking. Fingers crossed.

 

 

Just low after low on the GFS

I hope the low parade verifies so Kevin's Cold/Dry crashes and burns
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Barry B going with just flurries Wed. Says still no snowstorms in sight.

You should have been with us at the gtg in the South End at JJ Foleys. Barry Burbank was going for a sloppy few inches. The catcalls were so loud that we got thrown out of the main room into a smaller place. Weenies going wild. Incidentally, verification was 6-10.

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