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Model discussion thread


ORH_wxman

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It's pretty clear ...at lest for me, what this run is/has done.  It's bringing back the same sort of set up we've already seen this season, where you have a ridge positioned along or off the west coast of N/A, and that is all wrong for storms in the E. 

 

It's wrong because of basic wave-length kinematics forcing the flow to split E of the Rockies.  The n-stream looks +PNAP in nature, but the southern U.S. beneath the split takes on an opposing sort of -PNAP. 

 

That causes a deconstructive wave interference pattern in the East.  The heights in the South/SE rise, while the n-stream imports cold heights, and you end up with too much velocity in the flow... Which is wrong because [ enter any number of reason here ] and that's the ballgame. 

 

But as others have noted... the GFS has some continuity issue going on in the Pac so it may be more probable that I've just wasted 4 minutes typing this...

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it was a region wide 3-6 (SNE). It was talked about like that by mets . I thought the danger was a miss south. I hope I was wrong and it hits.

 

There was one run south of the pike..whatever. Point is, people are acting like the clipper was going to flip things. The only thing it would hide, are the instabilities of weenies. 

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There was one run south of the pike..whatever. Point is, people are acting like the clipper was going to flip things. The only thing it would hide, are the instabilities of weenies.

Just seemed to be alot of optimism this morning about the clipper and then all of a sudden from reading posts it seems like folks think it's a miss.
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What is comical, is all the talk previously about how the Mid Atlantic(NYC south) would do worse than New England in a pattern like what we are in.  And in all honesty, they are doing better than us it seems.  They've received a few systems/clippers that we've missed, and have had bigger accumulations with systems than we've had here in SNE. 

 

Not that they've been kicking ass, but they've been getting more fortunate than we have been...when it looked as though they'd be in a worse spot due to their southern location than us.  And if this clipper goes south, that's just another one they'll get and we won't.  Kind of Ironic for us.

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