powderfreak Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 There's a pretty big CAD signal there.You aren't scouring out low level cold with a strong high position like that. Plus you'd probably see some sort of weak secondary developing off of like ACk or something.Just conjecture at this point..but that's an ice signal verbatim on the Euro Yeah someone in CNE could see some pretty decent ice after a thump. Especially the climo favored spots of the ORH hills and the northern Berks east slopes into SVT/SNH on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 There's a pretty big CAD signal there.You aren't scouring out low level cold with a strong high position like that. Plus you'd probably see some sort of weak secondary developing off of like ACk or something.Just conjecture at this point..but that's an ice signal verbatim on the Euro Not verbatim since verbatim the 00z run on the euro has much too strong of a primary low and warms you up enough. After close examination, based soley on the 00z ecmwf verbatim, if this system was only was 48 hours out I'd definitely keep Tolland County out of a warning much like in '08. And perhaps out of an advisory as well but it's possible you muster up an hour or two of fzra at 31-32 degrees before the boundary layer torches. Futher north, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Ens develop secondary off of LI/and the islands..that would help lock in low level cold. We'll see how it all plays out..but some interesting things potentially happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 still plenty of time for changes but the idea of a southern slider definitely has less credence.The exact details of storm track and resultant thermal profiles will obviously have to be worked out. I think an initial period of snow / mixed precipitation is a good bet given initial cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I agree the European operational verbatim would probably keep most of the advisory level stuff north of the pike but it was only one run of the operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Discuss the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Discuss the ensembles They don't look any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The euro is some ice for nrn CT verbatim though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 They don't look any better. Even with that secondary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Even with that secondary? I don't see a secondary like the GFS has, Just that typical arm of lower pressure extending out. It's real icy for HUbby and MPN..maybe even ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 Even with that secondary? They don't have a secondary...they show a kink in the isobars...so one may develop...but the mean doesn't have this defined secondary developing. The ensembles look like a classic SWFE with probably advisory snow north of the pike and a faster flip to rain south. It's 120 hours out though so there's a lot of time left...but verbatim on the ensemble mean that is what they show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 In any case, it's another solution..although I'd say it makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Guess I shouldn't take what I see from other mets verbatim FTL Ed Vallee @EdValleeWx 4h4 hours ago Euro Ensembles try to develop a coastal low near Long Island/SE MA by Sunday AM. Primary Low over Detroit. Recipe for ice over interior NE. 0 replies1 retweet0 favorites Reply Retweet1 Favorite More Ed Vallee @EdValleeWx 3h3 hours ago @JoshPhillipsWx I think icing in coastal SNE will be almost impossible, but just inland a low south of SNE would be would be quite icy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Front end thump, Mix to rain scenario SWFE'ish starting to show with more regularity on the models, Next day or two should be telling if we can get that high to hold longer north of Maine it would be game on for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 In any case, it's another solution..although I'd say it makes sense to me. And, it's a solution that presents a world of difference sensibly with a minor change in track--which will invariably take place between now and showtime. Hopefully, we can all be winners on this one, but I'm not sold one way or the other. Meanwhile, enjoy the cooler regime. 16.9/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 At this point everyone has to hope the models have no read on that piece that phases in over the Plains and ultimately forces this to bomb....that thing is still out in practically Siberia, in 48-60 hours it reaches Alaska, they may get a handle on its speed and strength better at that point...if that piece is late or early this entire thing slips south like had been shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 Guess I shouldn't take what I see from other mets verbatim FTL Ed Vallee @EdValleeWx 4h4 hours ago Euro Ensembles try to develop a coastal low near Long Island/SE MA by Sunday AM. Primary Low over Detroit. Recipe for ice over interior NE. 0 replies1 retweet0 favorites Reply Retweet1 Favorite More Ed Vallee @EdValleeWx 3h3 hours ago @JoshPhillipsWx I think icing in coastal SNE will be almost impossible, but just inland a low south of SNE would be would be quite icy Here's the ensemble mean...you can see there's a kink, but there is no clear secondary. I'm sure some members have it, but looking at the ensemble mean you wouldn't callt hat a secondary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I would be more inclined to pay attention to the clipper after the 6th, northern stream energy and the model that does best with northern stream energy is the GFS, 6z GFS has a nice clipper dropping 2-4, 3-6" of snow across all of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 At this point everyone has to hope the models have no read on that piece that phases in over the Plains and ultimately forces this to bomb....that thing is still out in practically Siberia, in 48-60 hours it reaches Alaska, they may get a handle on its speed and strength better at that point...if that piece is late or early this entire thing slips south like had been shown. I guess we can all take a break from this thread until Thursday. 17.4/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 yes the European verbatim would be a warmer scenario but I think you still have to blend at this early stage. It's not like the European has been a guru lately at this time frame and I don't think SWFE's are the European's bread and butter as opposed to a classic miller A or coastal system. It could very well be right but Im not sold on it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Hopefully nobody gets all bent out of shape if this doesn't work out. It's had this type of look really all along, and although things can change, I would get excited for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Any system with a strong primary ejecting out of the SW is not a good solution for the southern portion of SNE as it will scour out any cold that we have in place. This does not preclude having some wintry precip but that wouldn't be the primary precip. This is where we need our -NAO to lock that into place, Without that block our HP will be forced East. By no means is this set in stone either as any piece/lobe of vorticity rotating around the PV may cause our confluence to be oriented in a different manner than what is currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Hopefully nobody gets all bent out of shape if this doesn't work out. It's had this type of look really all along, and although things can change, I would get excited for it. Its hard to see it getting much worse than this for the NE, its always good to have your worst solution on the table at 120 hours because you know it ain't ever holding up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Its hard to see it getting much worse than this for the NE, its always good to have your worst solution on the table at 120 hours because you know it ain't ever holding up. Well I just put it out there so we don't have to hear all the complaints about something needing a ton of work in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Its hard to see it getting much worse than this for the NE, its always good to have your worst solution on the table at 120 hours because you know it ain't ever holding up. It looks great right now, haha. I thought it looked much worse two days ago. Except for the surpressed ECM run yesterday at 12z and a few PARA runs (that model seems useless though), its had SWFE look the entire time. At day 7-10 it was cutter all the way so this is a big improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Front end thump, Mix to rain scenario SWFE'ish starting to show with more regularity on the models, Next day or two should be telling if we can get that high to hold longer north of Maine it would be game on for many This event is right in your and Dendrite's wheelhouse right now. Just far enough north to get the most thump with minimal mix, just far enough south to get the good juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 6z GFS continues that gradient pattern that folks had been speculating about a lot over the past week or so...showing without the -NAO, south of New England may have issues at times. We all snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 It looks great right now, haha. I thought it looked much worse two days ago. Except for the surpressed ECM run yesterday at 12z and a few PARA runs (that model seems useless though), its had SWFE look the entire time. At day 7-10 it was cutter all the way so this is a big improvement. Yes it has definitely gotten colder in the means the last couple days. But there's still time for this to revert back to a cutter. Next 36 hours will probably start honing in on the type of event we get. Details closer in than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Yes it has definitely gotten colder in the means the last couple days. But there's still time for this to revert back to a cutter. Next 36 hours will probably start honing in on the type of event we get. Details closer in than that. Yeah, there are still some ugly GGEM-esque solutions on the individual ensemble members of both the EURO and GFS...more than there are suppressed non-events like yesterday's 12z ECM. So that would certainly be the larger concern I would think than a whiff to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Yeah, there are still some ugly GGEM-esque solutions on the individual ensemble members of both the EURO and GFS...more than there are suppressed non-events like yesterday's 12z ECM. So that would certainly be the larger concern I would think than a whiff to the south. It's not whiffing, so a matter of ptype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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