SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The NavGEM and GEM both say the GFS losing the storm down in the south is hogwash, I think what may be causing the GFS to suddenly be have problems vs most of the winter when its been better is the ridge now centered over the US vs off the West Coast where it had mostly been...the new ridge position and sharpness may be causing the GFS to overamplify NRN stream disurbances and crush everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 One thing is for certain, it's a pretty active pattern. Lots of shortwaves in the flow. Something has to give eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 How much farther south is Euro with the clipper today? Weaker weekend storm means this goes south and shears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 How much farther south is Euro with the clipper today? Weaker weekend storm means this goes south and shears It's only out to 102h, but it's solidly north of the 00z run at that point. I'm not sure where you get the logic from that a weaker MLK storm means the clipper is south...it should mean the opposite because the confluence is weaker to the northeast since the MLK storm doesn't nuke out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It's only out to 102h, but it's solidly north of the 00z run at that point. I'm not sure where you get the logic from that a weaker MLK storm means the clipper is south...it should mean the opposite because the confluence is weaker to the northeast since the MLK storm doesn't nuke out. Seems solid , yea that logic is backwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 solid event on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It's only out to 102h, but it's solidly north of the 00z run at that point. I'm not sure where you get the logic from that a weaker MLK storm means the clipper is south...it should mean the opposite because the confluence is weaker to the northeast since the MLK storm doesn't nuke out. Yeah weaker first storm would mean less of a chance it blocks it south and would give it room to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Well I still stand with the south trend not being our issue. Nice little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Yeah weaker first storm would mean less of a chance it blocks it south and would give it room to amplify. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 Nice clipper/redeveloper. Gets some juice to it as it redevelops near LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 Yeah weaker first storm would mean less of a chance it blocks it south and would give it room to amplify. Well I think Kevin was trying to cling onto his logic that the MLK event had a better shot at snow in SNE than the clipper...he cancelled the clipper already yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Classic clipper. Hope it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I hope it blows a hole in the Gulf Stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Nice clipper/redeveloper. Gets some juice to it as it redevelops near LI. Total Tippy NJ special, could see it in the height fields, man can we get a break or what, that would ease some pain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 SE CT special on the Euro for that clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Well I think Kevin was trying to cling onto his logic that the MLK event had a better shot at snow in SNE than the clipper...he cancelled the clipper already yesterday. Yes, I was thinking just the opposite too, the weaker the MLK day storm is, the better the Clipper should be for SNE, but he makes it sound like he knows what's going to happen, before it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Getting me nervous up here with S of the Pike talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 This looks like a south of the pike special and east of 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Plus the storm is within 5 days now, getting close to that window of specialty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Scott how were the EURO ensembles for 00z in terms of the clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Scott how were the EURO ensembles for 00z in terms of the clipper? Not too far off the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The N of the pike people probably shouldn't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 Getting me nervous up here with S of the Pike talk. It is 5 days out...I wouldn't even entertain the location of jackpots seriously. But this is a model thread where verbatim solutions are discussed, and this particular solution was very nice for BOS-PVD corridor and parts of SE MA...it still gave your area snow, just the best was SE. This could easily jackpot dendrite though. I wouldn't sweat it for another 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Wish we could all lock this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 This looks like a south of the pike special and east of 495. this thing could easily cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Not only does the EURO have a juiced clipper but it hits a nice coastal on the 24th/25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 Wish we could all lock this run. Kind of skimpy for the CNE crowd though...we need that 2nd storm to be more widespread...the 1/25 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Euro day 9 is wood worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Not only does the EURO have a juiced clipper but it hits a nice coastal on the 24th/25th. Did it do anything with that last night? I know it had it at 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 this thing could easily cut cut where? I hope you mean come across SNE , wrong term maybe? Cutters to me travel sw to ne not nw to se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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