Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I don't think it's forced south. Well if that happens and rains for New England and it looks like the end of week storm misses OTS..I'll admit..I'll melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Well if that happens and rains for New England and it looks like the end of week storm misses OTS..I'll admit..I'll melt I don't mean rain, just that it could move close by. It's far enough away so that all possibilities are at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Well if that happens and rains for New England and it looks like the end of week storm misses OTS..I'll admit..I'll meltI'll melt when the temps get consistently above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I don't mean rain, just that it could move close by. It's far enough away so that all possibilities are at play. If a clipper moves overhead it means 2 things..one you get little snow and the good snows are north..or 2..it rains and you get a fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 If a clipper moves overhead it means 2 things..one you get little snow and the good snows are north..or 2..it rains and you get a fropa. Could does not imply will. I guess my point is that I don't favor an OTS track at the moment where nobody sees snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Could does not imply will. I guess my point is that I don't favor an OTS track at the moment where nobody sees snow. Hope you're right dude WEDNESDAY... BOTH EC AND GFS ENSEMBLE / DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS COMING BACK ON TRACK WITH THE CLIPPER-LOW S OF OUR REGION. INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW-ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE S- COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Hope you're right dude WEDNESDAY... BOTH EC AND GFS ENSEMBLE / DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS COMING BACK ON TRACK WITH THE CLIPPER-LOW S OF OUR REGION. INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW-ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE S- COAST. Well don't hold me to it because it's still out there. That's why i said "favor." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Euro looks nice with the clipper for us south of the Pikers a general 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Sorry for the ignorance here, but what am I missing? The 06z GFS has SNE bone dry under high pressure at 21z on Sunday. And yet, in this mornings AFD for BOX, Sipprell is discussing "- POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT". We're only 60 hours away. What gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 Sorry for the ignorance here, but what am I missing? The 06z GFS has SNE bone dry under high pressure at 21z on Sunday. And yet, in this mornings AFD for BOX, Sipprell is discussing "- POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT". We're only 60 hours away. What gives? See this thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45392-we-have-a-dream-mlk-disco-jan-18-possible-wave-on-front/page-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Not that it means much but the 9z SREF'S are way west compared to 3z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I think the clipper has a little upside too it. Euro looks good, especially south of the pike. Gfs is pretty good too That is a much better snow threat than the Sunday/monday system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I think the clipper has a little upside too it. Euro looks good, especially south of the pike. Gfs is pretty good too That is a much better snow threat than the Sunday/monday system I wouldn't get hopes up for that anywhere in New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Euro looks nice with the clipper for us south of the Pikers a general 3-6 That outcome would not surprise me in the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I'd take 3-6 in a hearbeat...that is a MECS this season for god's sake!! Let's lock that in lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 That outcome would not surprise me in the least. I don't think the threat is south. At least IMHO right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Thanks, I've gone through that thread, guess I'm wondering: does the GFS, just depict the event (that the Euro is showing for Sunday night) much later, i.e., on Tuesday or is that another event altogether? See this thread:http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45392-we-have-a-dream-mlk-disco-jan-18-possible-wave-on-front/page-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I don't think the threat is south. At least IMHO right now. Yea, hope you're right....as some may have suspected, that post really wasn't based on anything, but rather a subtle, inconspicuous venting of frustration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Well then... According to the GFS, SNE'ers should probably just start a February pattern thread now. Good thing it sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The GFS op has gone against its ensemble for awhile now. I don't know what to think, but my money is on.".don't think too hard about it." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The GFS op has gone against its ensemble for awhile now. I don't know what to think, but my money is on.".don't think too hard about it." Hmmm...since around 12z on 1/14/2015? My understanding is that the GEFS are still the lower-resolution GFS's ensembles for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The GFS op has gone against its ensemble for awhile now. I don't know what to think, but my money is on.".don't think too hard about it." Could it be due to the fact that it's ensembles are run of the old algorithms @ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Did they completely stop running the old OP GFS? It would be nice if it was still running on an alternate server somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I'm starting to sense the Euro is taking over on its feel for the pattern and the GFS is going back to reality. The last few days it seems the GFS is playing catchup and not the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I have a feeling that the new GFS is going to be worse than the old one....."The Devil you know, vs The Devil you Don't" kind of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The GEFS look a lot different for the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Hmmm...since around 12z on 1/14/2015? My understanding is that the GEFS are still the lower-resolution GFS's ensembles for a while. Given the op run today, I wouldn't trust the op run that far out IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I have a feeling that the new GFS is going to be worse than the old one....."The Devil you know, vs The Devil you Don't" kind of thing. Not sure about that...I would wait on saying that for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The GEFS look a lot different for the clipper. Different as in not good, or different than the OP GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Different as in not good, or different than the OP GFS? The look it had probably would be better for snow as it tries to redevelop. I did not see QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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