N. OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 For some reason this is hilarious to me. Lmao I think the stretch would be better in summer humidity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 With the 12z EURO there is a lot of energy involved with the MLK system, the Thursday clipper and the weekend storm, right now I'm out to hour 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Obviously, no one should take individual ensemble members at days 5-10 as verbatim solutions. But, the 12z OP said, this is how you do cold and dry. The 12z GEFS said yeah good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Individual members can out weigh the global operational model when most agree on an active pattern while the operational model does not agree. The clipper has a chance to be an amplified storm, unlike what the operational model shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Obviously, no one should take individual ensemble members at days 5-10 as verbatim solutions. But, the 12z OP said, this is how you do cold and dry. The 12z GEFS said yeah good luck with that. The op is the new GFS now and I have not been impressed with it in the long range. The operational runs are bad enough after day 10, but I've noticed several runs over the past week where it was way too progressive with the EPAC ridging and flooding the conus with pacific air. That's probably not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Euro grazes the Cape with the clipper, but a nice event at the end of the run. You can see the timing of features is all over the place on the models, but I think the takeaway is that they are showing some storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Euro has an interesting looking storm day 10........boy where have we heard that one this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Euro grazes the Cape with the clipper, but a nice event at the end of the run. You can see the timing of features is all over the place on the models, but I think the takeaway is that they are showing some storms. The OP model worshippers will remove the nooses for a run. The clipper did look a bit healthier this run, though it still has some work to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Euro has an interesting looking storm day 10........boy where have we heard that one this winter? Not really. It's been dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The OP model worshippers will remove the nooses for a run. The clipper did look a bit healthier this run, though it still has some work to do. I'm not following any threat until it reaches 72 hours. I've had enough of it...not complaining....quite to the contrary; this MO is to ensure that I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 I'm not following any threat until it reaches 72 hours. I've had enough of it...not complaining....quite to the contrary; this MO is to ensure that I don't. Given the lack of downstream blocking, we're not going to have a ton of stability in individual storm threats until about 72-84 hours anyway. It's a good rule of thumb. Those well-blocked, slower flow patterns can be predicted a bit easier (think 1/12/11 HECS from 5 days out...almost didn't budge with that block in Greenland...or 2/6/10 HECS that we smoked cirrus in...that damn line didn't make it north of NYC for like 144 hours straight save a few bad GFS runs)....but the less blocked patterns can "wiggle" around a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Given the lack of downstream blocking, we're not going to have a ton of stability in individual storm threats until about 72-84 hours anyway. It's a good rule of thumb. Those well-blocked, slower flow patterns can be predicted a bit easier (think 1/12/11 HECS from 5 days out...almost didn't budge with that block in Greenland...or 2/6/10 HECS that we smoked cirrus in...that damn line didn't make it north of NYC for like 144 hours straight save a few bad GFS runs)....but the less blocked patterns can "wiggle" around a bit more. Sandy may have been the best example of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Given the lack of downstream blocking, we're not going to have a ton of stability in individual storm threats until about 72-84 hours anyway. It's a good rule of thumb. Those well-blocked, slower flow patterns can be predicted a bit easier (think 1/12/11 HECS from 5 days out...almost didn't budge with that block in Greenland...or 2/6/10 HECS that we smoked cirrus in...that damn line didn't make it north of NYC for like 144 hours straight save a few bad GFS runs)....but the less blocked patterns can "wiggle" around a bit more. You just can't hammer that point home enough to some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 end of the euro looks a bit like last winter with those systems rocketing through the SW / NE flow off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Euro Ensembles?? Looking Good like yesterday? Bad? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Euro Ensembles?? Looking Good like yesterday? Bad? ? Not fully out yet, out to about 288 hours...but they look good. They are bullish on a system for 1/24-25 and then show hints for 1/27. The 1/24-25 system though is a pretty strong signal...but who knows where it actually tracks. It could be a cutter, so don't say we didn't warn about that. But at least the ancedent airmass is pretty cold for that, so there's a bit of wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Euro Ensembles?? Looking Good like yesterday? Bad? ? 7.3 :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 There goes the Euro with the 2 wave idea again after Day 8 for a storm, its had issues with that the last year or so..can pretty much toss the Op for the storm for the 24th and 25th with that wild scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 That's a cold EC ensemble too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 That's a cold EC ensemble too. Another impressive run today. That's potentially CT earthquake-inducing cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Scott, what does the EURO ensemble look like for the clipper system next Wednesday and Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The clipper never had a chance Jimmy. Shear city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Clipper is definitely there on the ensembles...it's not being confused with a Manitoba Mauler, but it's there tracking just S of ACK. It could still be a nice little event if the details break our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The NAM likes to nuke-up coastal lows...but just because it is not west, doesn't mean the Euro can be tossed. I agree the Euro solution is an outlier...but keep in mind the NAM can be strung out too. In the Feb 2013 blizzard, it had no snow for SNE like 72 hours out...it was a whiff out to sea on an ugly strung out wave. It finally corrected west as we closed in on 2 days out. I mostly just exclude the NAM beyond 60 hours at all. Me too other than entertainment - Btw folks, there is multi agency support for falling NAO index values, and this may also be driven by a falling AO that makes perhaps -1 SD, and the fact that the NAO and AO share domain -- such that the AO is effecting the NAO's drop. Also, this event was signaled longer than we've been talking about it. It's got Archembault written all over it -- unfortunately for the snow geese, those events don't say anything about ptype, or even storm type. Be that as it may, I mentioned this myself last week that this trough could easily become more amplified in future runs and days, with the positive PNA rise and in place. We'll see how it plays ... but negative tilt system and huge dynamics muddles things a bit, and should expect the unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The clipper never had a chance Jimmy. Shear city What are you talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 What are you talking about It's got a good shot at shaking hands with the meat grinder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The clipper never had a chance Jimmy. Shear city The clipper is making a comeback for the very reason the coastal areas have been burned on these marginal events all winter...the underestimating of the NATL ridge...notice on the ensembles and models which now show the clipper the flow goes WSW from the Oh Valley to the Maritimes behind the MLK storm..its not potent WSW flow by any means but its enough and its a product of that ridge in the WATL...as a result...the flow is less WNW-ESE and more WSW-ENE across the Eastern US and the clipper encounters less shearing and confluence...you can even argue it encounters flow somewhat favorable for it to deepen a bit on the Op Euro and some ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It's got a good shot at shaking hands with the meat grinder. I can't believe that you are against something that would give you snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I can't believe that you are against something that would give you snow. He is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Vort for the clipper looks a little more potent so far on this GFS run, let's see if that translates into anything down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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