SR Airglow Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The NAM likes to nuke-up coastal lows...but just because it is not west, doesn't mean the Euro can be tossed. I agree the Euro solution is an outlier...but keep in mind the NAM can be strung out too. In the Feb 2013 blizzard, it had no snow for SNE like 72 hours out...it was a whiff out to sea on an ugly strung out wave. It finally corrected west as we closed in on 2 days out. I mostly just exclude the NAM beyond 60 hours at all. Yeah I wouldn't say toss it based on the NAM alone, but it's definitely a flag against the EURO solution. Like many other things in forecasting, I see it as a probabilistic measure, that is, if the NAM is flat and east, that's probably a 70-30 split in favor of a further east solution, while if it's amped up and the NW outlier, probably a 50 50 or 60 40 split between the two camps on the other guidance. Plenty of time left with this one for it to go one way or the other. No one should be celebrating or crying just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Below zero Sat morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Well here it is. Loop it. That's almost the opposite of a -NAO. You still have troughing near the Davis Straits. It's more like a ridge later in the period that is more east based, but next week is not a -NAO. But, look out west. Beautiful, stout, and static ridge. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015011506&fh=204&xpos=0&ypos=322 Wouldn't that just continue the cold,dry transition to warm, wet pattern we've been in. Unless you're talking about massive over the top ridging like last year then it would seem very difficult to get a good snow event. If you like arctic air then it's a good pattern for you but it's not necessarily snowy without the appropriate blocking regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Wouldn't that just continue the cold,dry transition to warm, wet pattern we've been in. Unless you're talking about massive over the top ridging like last year then it would seem very difficult to get a good snow event. If you like arctic air then it's a good pattern for you but it's not necessarily snowy without the appropriate blocking regime. Well what some of the indications suggest, is over the top ridging as you said. Last year had cutters too, so we are at the risk for those as well...but this pattern going forward after this weekend offers more storm chances I think. Then, we go from there. Tough to say how it shakes out specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Below zero Sat morning? Trending damn close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Trending damn close It has had that look for a little while... although my BOX p n c, which had -1 for a couple of days for Sat morning, is now showing 0 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 GFS has a very weak low as the "clipper" with maybe light snow on the Cape, but seems like it may try for something in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 GFS has a very weak low as the "clipper" with maybe light snow on the Cape, but seems like it may try for something in the Gulf. That stuff in Texas at 162? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 That stuff in Texas at 162? OTS this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 That stuff in Texas at 162? Yeah, but a little too late verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Whiff mainly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 That run was pretty terrible for all verbatim. After the rainstorm, just dry dry dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 That run was pretty terrible for all verbatim. After the rainstorm, just dry dry dry. Look at the pattern setting up,not run by run changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Look at the pattern setting up,not run by run changes.Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 That run was pretty terrible for all verbatim. After the rainstorm, just dry dry dry. Dry and cold but that's just one run and we want the cold regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Dry and cold but that's just one run and we want the cold regardless. Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 It's going to be cold...all guidance agrees on that. So there's really no use in wish-casting for warmth. The question is in the nuances of all the storm tracks. GEFS and Euro ensembles also still have some disagreement in the Atlantic...the Euro looks a little bit more promising there for at least some east-based blocking which would be good for storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It'll be interesting to see what the Ensembles show today...especially the Euro Ensembles. Yesterday they showed pure weather porn according to many on here. Let's hope that look holds today for the most part. If it doesn't, we may be in some trouble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It's going to be cold...all guidance agrees on that. So there's really no use in wish-casting for warmth. The question is in the nuances of all the storm tracks. GEFS and Euro ensembles also still have some disagreement in the Atlantic...the Euro looks a little bit more promising there. I'm not wish-casting, I'm just stating a personal preference for warm and dry over cold and dry. The former has little to no chance of happening, I agree. Seems like there are more hits than misses on the GEFS for the second storm, although maybe not all the hits are snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I thought the GEFS weren't bad. Some storm signals and a much better look for the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I thought the GEFS weren't bad. Some storm signals and a much better look for the clipper. That's nice to hear. Lets see how the Euro Ensembles look...hopefully close to what they showed yesterday!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I thought the GEFS weren't bad. Some storm signals and a much better look for the clipper. Assuming that the majority of the precip is rain for the coast, are they showing any CCB snows on the backside? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I thought the GEFS weren't bad. Some storm signals and a much better look for the clipper. There are a number of members you could pull out of there and say "epic winter stretch coming." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Assuming that the majority of the precip is rain for the coast, are they showing any CCB snows on the backside, I meant the longer range, I didn't look at Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 There are a number of members you could pull out of there and say "epic winter stretch coming." Yeah you can always find some members to fit your fetish..lol. But overall, I didn't get a cold and dry feeling. Likewise, I don't see Jan 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I meant the longer range, I didn't look at Sunday. Sunday is synoptically dead. But everything after that looked much, much healthier than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 There are a number of members you could pull out of there and say "epic winter stretch coming." For some reason this is hilarious to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 6 out of 12 individual members are amplified with the clipper at hour 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Yeah you can always find some members to fit your fetish..lol. But overall, I didn't get a cold and dry feeling. Likewise, I don't see Jan 2011. Not just "some members." Almost all of them look wet for multiple events, and many of them look cold for multiple events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Most members like a good clipper coming through the flow next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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