Model discussion thread

[Ginx snewx]

LOL, things looked promising yesterday on the modeling, today.........Na So Much lol.  This year seems like alot of Mirages.  I was worried when some were talking about the promised land arriving soon.  This year is VERY touch and go...NO slam dunks what so ever in this season...it's scarey.

Ensembles look fine, there is never a slam dunk 5 days out

[weatherlogix]

I would have a meltdown if the op Euro verified verbatim over the next 10 days. 2 cutters with rain to CYUL with cold inbetween. Hideous. 

Say hello to the decade of the 1980's....which this winter has basically mirrored so far.

[dryslot]

I don't see anything that has changed much looking at ensemble runs over the last day or two, If some are referring to the OP, Then yes, There are and will be more swings until we get inside at least 72 hrs

[WinterWolf]

The MLK storm has never looked promising IMHO.

The rest of the pattern beyond that looks fine. Pretty much the same as yesterday.

I think I was referring to more of what Ryan said about the Op run of the Euro....Cutter heaven with Cold inbetween.  No blocking=possibility of Cutters/Rainers, then Cold to follow.  That is a distinct possibility...unless we get a lil blocking of some sorts.  Wasn't talking so much the MLK day system, but after that.  We desperately need some blocking upcoming...as we all have seen, this winter doesn't want to get it done without it(last year seemed to get it done without alot of blocking).

[CoastalWx]

I think I was referring to more of what Ryan said about the Op run of the Euro....Cutter heaven with Cold inbetween.  No blocking=possibility of Cutters/Rainers, then Cold to follow.  That is a distinct possibility...unless we get a lil blocking of some sorts.  Wasn't talking so much the MLK day system, but after that.  We desperately need some blocking upcoming...as we all have seen, this winter doesn't want to get it done without it(last year seemed to get it done without alot of blocking).

 

Last year was cutters galore. We were an absolute furnace in mid January. Difference being we had snow too.

[J Paul Gordon]

Why isTaunton talking about a -AO and -NAO in its forecast?

 

Pattern shift more evident within 14.12z and 15.0z deterministic and
ensemble solutions. Ensemble means weighing towards two key points
to this forecast:

1./ North-Atlantic ridging into Greenland which lends towards favorable
troughing aloft and subsequent deeper low center at the surface in
proximity to the NE-Continental U.S. /-Nao trend/

2./ The absence of a Stout polar-low and weakening of the polar-jet
as a series of polar lows prevails around the Arctic Circle /-ao
trend/. Was intimidated and exercising caution with yesterdays
forecast...am now confident that a significant weather system will
impact the area for the forecasted timeframe.

[mahk_webstah]

I don't know....GYX seems to be hedging colder.  BOX is honking a strong storm.  HPC is a storm on the NH coasline.  I have snow likely in my forecast, 70% and no mention of rain.  Here is GYX:

 

THE MEAT OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD COMES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY /DAY 4 TO 5/ WITH A STORM. AGAIN TONIGHT A WIDE VARIETY OF
OPTIONS. GFS AND EURO BOTH BRING A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE UP
THE COAST...WITH AN UPSTREAM TILTED TROUGH ALOFT RESULTING IN A
LOW TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WITH A VERY
WARM AND WET AIR MASS. AT THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM THE
CANADIAN KEEPS UP THE STATUS QUO WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW AND
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY
IS INCREASING BUT REMAIN SKEPTICAL OF THE VERY WARM SOLUTION. THIS
ENTIRE STORM IS DEPENDENT ON THE BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST
BREAKING DOWN AND THEN A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
PUSHING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS IN TIME TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME MORE CONSISTENCY BEFORE FULLY
BUYING INTO THE WARM AIR. IF THE WARM AIR DOES COME IN THE FINAL
CONSIDERATION WILL BE WHETHER IT MAKES IT DOWN TO GROUND LEVEL.
WITH SOLID SNOW COVER AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD TRAPPING THE
COLD AT THE GROUND FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE GOING TO
RAIN IS AN OPTION TO THROWN IN THE MIX AS WELL.

[WinterWolf]

Last year was cutters galore. We were an absolute furnace in mid January. Difference being we had snow too.

Yes, for sure, but like you said we had snow too.  Nothing real big, but lots of 4-8 and 3-6 with a couple 10 inchers thrown in too(for my area that is).  This year, the difference is, we have gotten skunked, and that makes all the difference.  Nothing inbetween the cutters is painful.  

 

Like I said, last year got it done, this year Nadda...so far.

[CoastalWx]

Why isTaunton talking about a -AO and -NAO in its forecast?

 

Pattern shift more evident within 14.12z and 15.0z deterministic and

ensemble solutions. Ensemble means weighing towards two key points

to this forecast:

1./ North-Atlantic ridging into Greenland which lends towards favorable

troughing aloft and subsequent deeper low center at the surface in

proximity to the NE-Continental U.S. /-Nao trend/

2./ The absence of a Stout polar-low and weakening of the polar-jet

as a series of polar lows prevails around the Arctic Circle /-ao

trend/. Was intimidated and exercising caution with yesterdays

forecast...am now confident that a significant weather system will

impact the area for the forecasted timeframe.

There is a brief transient ridge, but that is hardly a -NAO.  Sipperell thinks he's Walt Drag and he's not.

[Ginx snewx]

Last year was cutters galore. We were an absolute furnace in mid January. Difference being we had snow too.

we may come close to being as cold as Jan 76, with a storm or 2 to end out the month snow totals could be normal too, all the angst on Jan 15th can turn on a dime. If we do get say a foot total by the end of the month when some weenie looks back in 2030 they will say man what a deep winter month Jan 15 was. its why i always preach snow depth days to really get a feel for how a winter really was, individual events/months are great to review but don't tell the whole story.

[WinterWolf]

There is a brief transient ridge, but that is hardly a -NAO.  Sipperell thinks he's Walt Drag and he's not.

So Scott, are you saying that BOX is wrong?  And that there isn't a -NAO developing?  

[ORH_wxman]

So Scott, are you saying that BOX is wrong?  And that there isn't a -NAO developing?  

 

 

We have a transient ridge...whether that manifests into a more permanent -NAO down the road remains to be seen. Transient ridges can help if they are timed well, but it's not really a regime shift in the North Atlantic unless we can achieve sustained some blocking.

 

There are signs that east-based blocking may be more sustainable though, but the spread is large amongst the scenarios.

[Ginx snewx]

There is a brief transient ridge, but that is hardly a -NAO.  Sipperell thinks he's Walt Drag and he's not.

Man you are enfuego in the digs today at fellow Pros

[WinterWolf]

We have a transient ridge...whether that manifests into a more permanent -NAO down the road remains to be seen. Transient ridges can help if they are timed well, but it's not really a regime shift in the North Atlantic unless we can achieve sustained some blocking.

 

There are signs that east-based blocking may be more sustainable though, but the spread is large amongst the scenarios.

Will, isn't east based -NAO Lousy for SNE/NE overall?  Was taught/told that they produce Apps Runners/Coastal Huggers which favors places far west of here?  Is that wrong?

[CoastalWx]

So Scott, are you saying that BOX is wrong?  And that there isn't a -NAO developing?  

 

I just think that it's the wrong way to look at it. There is a transient ridge, but that goes way with a trough still in the Davis Straits, and then another ridge moves in. To call that a "Negative North Atlantic Oscillation" is just not fair.  You want to talk about a real oscillation, look at the East Pacific. That is a true oscillation, a real -EPO that stays static. Not transient stuff.

[WinterWolf]

Thank You Scott.  That's what I thought you meant too.  In Meteorology, I see that many Different METS have their own way of percieving and looking at things many times....just like in every profession I suppose.

[mahk_webstah]

There is a brief transient ridge, but that is hardly a -NAO.  Sipperell thinks he's Walt Drag and he's not.

That was a little harsh.  Although it is funny in that his discussions are style like Walt Drags.

 

Maybe he is pointing to the fact that an east based -NAO has been showing on ensembles a bit the last couple days, he says -nao trend.

[CoastalWx]

It's possible down the road we may have something more east based which would work, but I don't see a -NAO next week. 

[ORH_wxman]

Will, isn't east based -NAO Lousy for SNE/NE overall?  Was taught/told that they produce Apps Runners/Coastal Huggers which favors places far west of here?  Is that wrong?

 

 

An east-based -NAO works fine if we have a good pacific pattern (which we do)...east based -NAO can get dicey when the PAC sucks or is very marginal...that's when we perfer the huge Davis Straight block. This is sort of what happened in Feb 1969.

 

The good PAC and east-based -NAO happened in Feb 2003...which most remember as a great month. Just two examples but they illustrate the point well.

[CT Valley Snowman]

NAM looks weak and East at hour 84. Probably irrelevant.

[CoastalWx]

That was a little harsh.  Although it is funny in that his discussions are style like Walt Drags.

 

Maybe he is pointing to the fact that an east based -NAO has been showing on ensembles a bit the last couple days, he says -nao trend.

 

Well here it is. Loop it. That's almost the opposite of a -NAO. You still have troughing near the Davis Straits. It's more like a ridge later in the period that is more east based, but next week is not a -NAO. But, look out west. Beautiful, stout, and static ridge.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015011506&fh=204&xpos=0&ypos=322

[WinterWolf]

An east-based -NAO works fine if we have a good pacific pattern (which we do)...east based -NAO can get dicey when the PAC sucks or is very marginal...that's when we perfer the huge Davis Straight block. This is sort of what happened in Feb 1969.

 

The good PAC and east-based -NAO happened in Feb 2003...which most remember as a great month. Just two examples but they illustrate the point well.

OK got it.  That helps clear that up.  Thank You for that great explanation, it is appreciated.  So lets bring on the East Based -NAO then lol.

[mahk_webstah]

HPC also seems to think there will be a decent storm.  BOX GYX and HPC all on board for MLK.  This snow drought...."we shall overcome."

 

SUCCESSIVE CYCLES OF GUIDANCE ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXISTENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM THAT SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS NWD NEAR THE EAST COAST SUN-MON. HOWEVER CRUCIAL DETAILS
IN TRACK/STRENGTH WILL TAKE ADDED TIME TO WORK OUT SINCE THE
SOURCE ENERGY ALOFT IS STILL OVER THE ERN PAC AND NOT SCHEDULED TO
REACH THE WEST COAST UNTIL AROUND EARLY FRI. STEADILY DEEPER
TREND OF THE SFC LOW IN ECMWF MEANS OVER THE PAST 24-36 HRS SEEMS
TO SUPPORT PARTIAL WEIGHT OF OPERATIONAL SOLNS THAT ARE STRONGER
THAN THE MEANS. 

[WinterWolf]

It would be such a nice thing if that MLK day event trended colder for SNE..man we need to catch a break, and that would be just wonderful if we could be so fortunate.  I'm not thinking it will, but just hoping something goes our way this season.

[CoastalWx]

It would be such a nice thing if that MLK day event trended colder for SNE..man we need to catch a break, and that would be just wonderful if we could be so fortunate.  I'm not thinking it will, but just hoping something goes our way this season.

 

It would be, but I think people are giving this thing too much credit....as if this storm "dictates the winter of '14-'15." It's a storm that wouldn't probably workout in '95-96, '02-'03, or '04-'05. 

[mahk_webstah]

Well here it is. Loop it. That's almost the opposite of a -NAO. You still have troughing near the Davis Straits. It's more like a ridge later in the period that is more east based, but next week is not a -NAO. But, look out west. Beautiful, stout, and static ridge.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015011506&fh=204&xpos=0&ypos=322

That is a really cool loop and I can see why you use it.  That western ridge don't wanna leave. The nao region just keep moving around and nothing wants to stay put.  That is better though, is it not, that it was the last couple of weeks?  Is it progress.  You can see a few times where the ridging want to bridge into N Greenland and even Scandi but it goes away quickly.  Is it a fair statment to say that the nao region is becoming less positive and more in flux and trending more negative, while not yet negative?  If the east based ridge holds then will it bridge over the pole?

[CoastalWx]

That is a really cool loop and I can see why you use it.  That western ridge don't wanna leave. The nao region just keep moving around and nothing wants to stay put.  That is better though, is it not, that it was the last couple of weeks?  Is it progress.  You can see a few times where the ridging want to bridge into N Greenland and even Scandi but it goes away quickly.  Is it a fair statment to say that the nao region is becoming less positive and more in flux and trending more negative, while not yet negative?  If the east based ridge holds then will it bridge over the pole?

 

That's certainly fair to say. As Will says, it's a zombie. Hopefully those quick fluxes of heat start to break it down and we can try and develop something east based to help keep confluence and storms from cutting over us.

 

However, I can't stress enough that this pattern going forward  still allows for cutters. I don't want to see people whining about that. Be warned.

[mahk_webstah]

Re that loop, another 2 stable features seem to be the trough over Europe and the trough just on the other side of the pole.  That sure ain't no -AO

[SR Airglow]

NAM looks weak and East at hour 84. Probably irrelevant.

I think it's somewhat relevant in that it discounts the super amped EURO solution. Normally if it was going to be an amped result you'd see the NAM over Chicago at this stage and then correct east over time.

[ORH_wxman]

I think it's somewhat relevant in that it discounts the super amped EURO solution. Normally if it was going to be an amped result you'd see the NAM over Chicago at this stage and then correct east over time.

 

The NAM likes to nuke-up coastal lows...but just because it is not west, doesn't mean the Euro can be tossed. I agree the Euro solution is an outlier...but keep in mind the NAM can be strung out too. In the Feb 2013 blizzard, it had no snow for SNE like 72 hours out...it was a whiff out to sea on an ugly strung out wave. It finally corrected west as we closed in on 2 days out.

 

I mostly just exclude the NAM beyond 60 hours at all.