SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The spread for that thing is still massive...you can argue everything from out to sea to a raging Chicago blizzard...there is definitely northern energy which is always trouble and could cause it to phase too early. The NavGEM is hinting at that at the end of its run, right now the Euro and GFS are definitely siding on the out to sea end of the idea. Unfortunately as promising as all this data is starting to look we're still far away from potentially seeing the results, and that's a huge if. We'll have to deal with yet another coastal hugger, potentially a disintegrating clipper, and what happens after is very much up in the air but the threat of another cutter even at day 9-10 will still remain on the table. Maybe the fact that we've basically avoided a big thaw is a precursor to better things and that the snow isn't too far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Nova Scotia gets destroyed next weekend on the 00z gfs. Little late for us, but man, big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Unfortunately as promising as all this data is starting to look we're still far away from potentially seeing the results, and that's a huge if. We'll have to deal with yet another coastal hugger, potentially a disintegrating clipper, and what happens after is very much up in the air but the threat of another cutter even at day 9-10 will still remain on the table. Maybe the fact that we've basically avoided a big thaw is a precursor to better things and that the snow isn't too far away. The cutter idea is probably less likely than out to sea...the fact the always cutter happy Euro at Day 8-10 is not on the cutter train right now for several runs is another argument against it...that ridge out west is pretty far east too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Nova Scotia gets destroyed next weekend on the 00z gfs. Little late for us, but man, big storm It's still a couple inches in central/eastern areas, which considering how far OTS it is, speaks to how strong a storm it is and how large the precip shield could be. If it's in the right spot, could be one of those rare systems where everyone from SLK to ACK gets in on the good QPF. Obviously still way out in fantasy land, but you've got to admit it brings a grin to your face when you look at the runs and think of the possibilities... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It's still a couple inches in central/eastern areas, which considering how far OTS it is, speaks to how strong a storm it is and how large the precip shield could be. If it's in the right spot, could be one of those rare systems where everyone from SLK to ACK gets in on the good QPF. Obviously still way out in fantasy land, but you've got to admit it brings a grin to your face when you look at the runs and think of the possibilities... Yeah, verbatim still some snow. I was mainly referencing larger impacts. That definitely has my interest for sure. That period has been signaled for a while now. Tug something like that a couple hundred miles west and all of this winters turds so far would be forgiven lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Meanwhile the 0z GGEM is still weak and way east for Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 EURO still way west with Monday, runs a 980s low right up the Hudson Valley. Heavy cold miserable rains for all on this forum ending as a bit of light snow in western sections from a CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 taking annual road trip up to dorset vt... what's mlk day through the following friday looking like.. my apologies if this is the wrong thread to post this.. thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The cutter idea is probably less likely than out to sea...the fact the always cutter happy Euro at Day 8-10 is not on the cutter train right now for several runs is another argument against it...that ridge out west is pretty far east too 0z it jumps on the cutter train Fugitive style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Euro op is really amped. 980's over POU. Portions of northern PA, Central NY, and snow belts off Ontario do pretty well. Western New England upslope gets a bit of wrap- around but otherwise its a soaker. Ensemble mean is east but still tucked in pretty close to the coast. The following clipper gets shredded with the storm stalling just to the north. The 2nd bigger storm later in the run really phases early as well and ends up cutting but with a much better initial air mass everyone sees a period of overrunning snows before a changeover. The ensemble mean on the 2nd storm does not look as amped and keeps the lowest pressures tracking south of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Euro op is really amped. 980's over POU. Portions of northern PA, Central NY, and snow belts off Ontario do pretty well. Western New England upslope gets a bit of wrap- around but otherwise its a soaker. Ensemble mean is east but still tucked in pretty close to the coast. The 2nd storm later in the run really phases early as well and ends up cutting but with a much better initial air mass and a secondary development everyone sees a period of overrunning snows before a changeover. The ensemble mean on the 2nd storm does not look as amped and keeps the lowest pressures tracking south of New England. All the GFS ensembles are fairly flat on the 2nd storm, not one shows a cutter like the Euro..again though, cannot rule it out this early. I think the Euro is too amped for this weekend but it probably won't make a whole lot of difference to most people in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Toss that op run. 2 overamped cutters. Something is seriously flawed with the Euro in the day 4+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Gfs at 6Z is slightly east of OZ and much further east than the Euro but with the lack of a stronger deeper phase the cold air lags and NNE particularly Maine does well although most of SNE would probably change over and coat things up. Probably more likely than the juiced up Euro but we''ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 EPS mean is still way east of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 BOX and Sipprell really going Hammertime on em with the morning disco, A CLASSIC NEGATIVELY-TILTING SETUP INFERRED FROM MODEL CONSENSUS IN WHERE THE LOW UNDERGOES OCCLUSION AS IT STACKS AND THE CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE RETROGRADES W AS IT BOMBS TO AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW VALUE. CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING /AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM WHILE CONTINUING TO WOBBLE/. YET CONCERNING OUTCOMES...DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHILE EVALUATING ANALOGS FROM CIPS GUIDANCE THERE ARE SEVERAL THREATS THAT BEAR MONITORING: 1./ HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN / SMALL-STREAM FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS FAIRLY WELL FROZEN AND IMPERVIOUS 2./ STRONG-DAMAGING WINDS DURING BOTH APPROACH AND EXIT OF THE SYSTEM 3./ SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS ALONG WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF A WINTRY- MIX ALONG THE TRANSITION ZONE COMPRISING OF SLEET / FREEZING RAIN 4./ THERE IS ALSO CONCERN AS TO COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS AS TIDES AROUND THE MONDAY MORNING TIME-FRAME WILL BE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH AT 11.2 FEET. WITH THIS FORECAST OF MODERATE CONFIDENCE...PREFERENCE GIVEN TOWARDS A CONSENSUS OF 14.18Z GFS- AND EC-ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH 15.0Z GFS- AND EC-DETERMINISITIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH WPC FORECAST THINKING. THIS MAKES FOR A HUGE MESS WITHIN OUR FORECAST DATABASE WHICH DOES NOT YET BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL THREATS LIKELY DUE TO THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF GUIDANCE AND POOR RESOLUTION OF SAID GUIDANCE...THAT IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUED SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS. AND SADLY NO ONE SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Something like the euro op showed is certainly possible for later next week with no blocking. I already said this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Something like the euro op showed is certainly possible for later next week with no blocking. I already said this. Ens sound like they are way east and supportive of nice East coast snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Ens sound like they are way east and supportive of nice East coast snowstorm Well they have a nearly perfect look. Plenty of time to change over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Yeah I am scared that the ensembles look so good for the EURO that they could get worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 All the GFS ensembles are fairly flat on the 2nd storm, not one shows a cutter like the Euro..again though, cannot rule it out this early. I think the Euro is too amped for this weekend but it probably won't make a whole lot of difference to most people in the end. You're wrong man. There are a few members that have the cutter idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Something like the euro op showed is certainly possible for later next week with no blocking. I already said this. Yep, the 1/24-25 system can easily be a warmer system with no blocking...but it at least have a cold antecedent armass. You'd obviously expect that system to be jumping around a lot of guidance...it coudl also just be a whiff, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I would have a meltdown if the op Euro verified verbatim over the next 10 days. 2 cutters with rain to CYUL with cold inbetween. Hideous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 You're wrong man. There are a few members that have the cutter idea.Maybe two did. I agree that's not none, but the vast majority were not cutters.The EPS were east of the OP but at 1009mb vs 978mb there is undoubtedly still large spread. We aren't in details range yet anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Maybe two did. I agree that's not none, but the vast majority were not cutters. The EPS were east of the OP but at 1009mb vs 978mb there is undoubtedly still large spread. We aren't in details range yet anyway. The op Euro appears to be the most amplified and western solution of any of the 51 EPS members. There is an unusual amount of spread in the Euro ensemble solutions for a D5 storm so there's definitely a lot of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The op Euro appears to be the most amplified and western solution of any of the 51 EPS members. There is an unusual amount of spread in the Euro ensemble solutions for a D5 storm so there's definitely a lot of uncertainty.That's good to know, although I would still rather be west at this point. Could be running naked through snow drifts in W. Hartford while sulking in the bathroom with the faucet on to drown out the rain E of the river.Dan was talking about second storm though, which is too far out still to be discussing details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The op Euro appears to be the most amplified and western solution of any of the 51 EPS members. There is an unusual amount of spread in the Euro ensemble solutions for a D5 storm so there's definitely a lot of uncertainty. There's a storm thread for Sunday/Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 There's a storm thread for Sunday/Sunday night So far that thread looks like a lot of wishcasting and weenie dreams. Back in realityville the models don't show much excitement but we'll see - lots of model spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I would have a meltdown if the op Euro verified verbatim over the next 10 days. 2 cutters with rain to CYUL with cold inbetween. Hideous. It's the definition of Winter 2014-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 So far that thread looks like a lot of wishcasting and weenie dreams. Back in realityville the models don't show much excitement but we'll see - lots of model spread. LOL, things looked promising yesterday on the modeling, today.........Na So Much lol. This year seems like alot of Mirages. I was worried when some were talking about the promised land arriving soon. This year is VERY touch and go...NO slam dunks what so ever in this season...it's scarey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 LOL, things looked promising yesterday on the modeling, today.........Na So Much lol. This year seems like alot of Mirages. I was worried when some were talking about the promised land arriving soon. This year is VERY touch and go...NO slam dunks what so ever in this season...it's scarey. The MLK storm has never looked promising IMHO. The rest of the pattern beyond that looks fine. Pretty much the same as yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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