mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 congrats DendriteJe suis Dendrite.An exciting period is about to begin finally! Even if this cuts inland the pattern after is good on all guidance as far as I can tell. Does MLK help to drop the nao? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Dendrite 21000 posts Powderfreak 23000 posts MReaves 2100 posts me 1500 posts. Dendrite gets the congrats. Good lord I spend too much time on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Good lord I spend too much time on here. Tell me about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Prob west of 91 is best but everyone changes to accumulating snow west to east W of I-91 works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 W of I-91 works. Agree storms with that gradient make up for all the times we're watching the Eastern areas pound SN++ and we have some snow showers swirling around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Agree storms with that gradient make up for all the times we're watching the Eastern areas pound SN++ and we have some snow showers swirling around no argument from me but to be fair eastern areas have been absolutely screwed this year so of course I want a storm that includes everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It's the new gfs so I don't trust it. Also, I've seen 18z runs this year really try to show weenie solutions only to completely eat itself one run later. Call me skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It's the new gfs so I don't trust it. Also, I've seen 18z runs this year really try to show weenie solutions only to completely eat itself one run later. Call me skeptical. Probably best to be skeptical in a thread the needle situation at day 5 haha. And yeah I keep forgetting it's the new GFS. I wasn't impressed with its performance as the Para GFS so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Did anyone even do verification score for it before it was official/love? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Did anyone even do verification score for it before it was official/love? Yes, they hindcasted like 3 years and it scored better than the regular GFS consistently. Now, we will see how it handles east coast cyclogenesis...the old GFS was desperately terrible on that front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Probably best to be skeptical in a thread the needle situation at day 5 haha. And yeah I keep forgetting it's the new GFS. I wasn't impressed with its performance as the Para GFS so far this winter. I don't think it was running on all parameters on the super computer when it was the Para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Yes, they hindcasted like 3 years and it scored better than the regular GFS consistently. Now, we will see how it handles east coast cyclogenesis...the old GFS was desperately terrible on that front. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Gfs is pretty amped....nice for ENY, WVT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Closer to the Euro solution from 12z, though maybe not quite as far west. That solution will be sure to grind up the clipper as the MLK system sits and spins north of Maine acting as a shredder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Clipper s/w was vigorous on this GFS run...enough so that was able to fight some of the confluence and still produce like an inch or two for SNE. Pretty impressive givne the hideous location of the MLK event stalling like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Closer to the Euro solution from 12z, though maybe not quite as far west. That solution will be sure to grind up the clipper as the MLK system sits and spins north of Maine acting as a shredder. Beyond the potential to grind up the mid week clipper is there any other collateral damage that this system can inflict on our improving chances of snow events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Clipper s/w was vigorous on this GFS run that was able to fight some of the confluence and still produce like an inch or two for SNE. Pretty impressive givne the hideous location of the MLK event stalling like that. This is eerily similar to January 2005 evolution. The pattern flipped and we spent the first week chasing crap. Then the NAO and PNA worked in tandem and we went to the promised land. Kind of an archambault signal during the 1/25-2/2 time frame to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The 18z GFS giveth some hope for SNE, The 0z taketh away! But as Will said, this has been a no go for SNE pretty much the whole time, so no big deal. Hope the look going forward keeps looking nice for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Beyond the potential to grind up the mid week clipper is there any other collateral damage that this system can inflict on our improving chances of snow events? It can actually help us some...it assaults the Greenland vortex region. Part of the NAO drop we see on the progs is the transient ridge downstream of that system. Anything to help weaken the zombie vortex could help....as it may try and set up a more permanent -NAO after the 25th. I think shredding the clipper is the only real negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The Monday systems sucks two fold for SNE. Not only is it more than likely a big Rainer, it caps an already low ceiling on the clipper system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 This is eerily similar to January 2005 evolution. The pattern flipped and we spent the first week chasing crap. Then the NAO and PNA worked in tandem and we went to the promised land. Kind of an archambault signal during the 1/25-2/2 time frame to me. There is definitely potential for an Archambault system in there...esp with the uncertainty (but seemingly tending negative) of the NAO phase now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 One of the negatives of the new GFS is that it takes longer to come out. That higher resolution. It almost reminds me of waiting for the darn thing to come out 10 years ago on the old NCEP site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It can actually help us some...it assaults the Greenland vortex region. Part of the NAO drop we see on the progs is the transient ridge downstream of that system. Anything to help weaken the zombie vortex could help....as it may try and set up a more permanent -NAO after the 25th. I think shredding the clipper is the only real negative. Thanks Will, that's actually very informative from a learning perspective. This is really the first storm in a while modeled to sit in the GOM so I can see what you are saying about affecting the Greenland region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 There is definitely potential for an Archambault system in there...esp with the uncertainty (but seemingly tending negative) of the NAO phase now. This GFS run has a large signal for a Miller A.... ridiculous deepening of 53mb in 27 hrs from hrs 207 to 234 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 yoda stfu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 This is eerily similar to January 2005 evolution. The pattern flipped and we spent the first week chasing crap. Then the NAO and PNA worked in tandem and we went to the promised land. Kind of an archambault signal during the 1/25-2/2 time frame to me. Yea, with some luck.....similar evolution wouldn't shock me, as that season was not a bad analog going in. Just tough to shake the "boy who cried wolf" syndrome, and maintain some semblance of dispassion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 yoda stfu Hi Eek! Hope you have been getting good snows up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Clipper s/w was vigorous on this GFS run...enough so that was able to fight some of the confluence and still produce like an inch or two for SNE. Pretty impressive givne the hideous location of the MLK event stalling like that. I've seen worse positions, maybe its different for me down here but I think that vortex is far enough north for something to happen with the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 This GFS run has a large signal for a Miller A.... ridiculous deepening of 53mb in 27 hrs from hrs 207 to 234 The spread for that thing is still massive...you can argue everything from out to sea to a raging Chicago blizzard...there is definitely northern energy which is always trouble and could cause it to phase too early. The NavGEM is hinting at that at the end of its run, right now the Euro and GFS are definitely siding on the out to sea end of the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Wow was that a weenie run on the 00z new GFS. Could definitely be a cutter up here though as the GFS moved towards the EURO and we are 4-5 days away so plenty of time to sort it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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