TalcottWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The most encouraging to see is the storm parade that wants to get going next week. Seeing that on modeling doesn't get me worked up over one rainer to start. Bullets are in the clip and if we keep shooting eventually some of these storms are going to deliver/hit their target especially with the improving setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 18z GFS looks like a longitudinal blue bomb for those in WNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Freezing rain is a self-limiting process due to latent heat release. A cold northerly fetch at the sfc can usually make up for it, but in this case very heavy qpf can actually work against you. (as opposed to the more typical / oppose scenario where you have warm right at the sfc and cold above where you need the heavy qpf) GFS surface depiction is amiss in that scenario with a cold northerly drain with attendant ageo feed down from Canada. We know GFS surface temps up here are often too warm, unless he and all of Maine are torched at the surface prior to LP deepening on the Cape that sounding is too warm at the lower levels. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 GFS surface depiction is amiss in that scenario with a cold northerly drain with attendant ageo feed down from Canada. We know GFS surface temps up here are often too warm, unless he and all of Maine are torched at the surface prior to LP deepening on the Cape that sounding is too warm at the lower levels. . Model bias is a whole different can of worms. Just trying to explain how it could theoretically be possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Model bias is a whole different can of worms. Just trying to explain how it could theoretically be possible don't take me wrong I understand your point fully, its a moot point anyways as 18Z GFS pretty much slams him with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 18Z GFS phases earlier and far enough offshore to wrap in the cold air sooner. A changeover with a couple inches in interior NCT and higher amounts as you move north and east from northern ORH into Central and Northern New England. Just one run but something to watch. This is exactly the scenario I think is plausible..and much more likely than the clipper. I thought we'd see each run look better on this over the next few days. Lets see what everything does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Nothing better than a 20 inch added base to ski areas, holy cow do the Whites and Western Maine Mts get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Nothing better than a 20 inch added base to ski areas, holy cow do the Whites and Western Maine Mts get smoked. 30"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 And to think a couple days ago it looked boring lol 18z gfs looks good for a few inches here but we know it will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I think SNE deserves the blue bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 congrats DendriteMy goal is to one day have someone look at a model run and say "congrats meeaves". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Thats not a bad look. NNE gets crushed. Looks like most would flip to some snow though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 My goal is to one day have someone look at a model run and say "congrats meeaves". Dendrite 21000 posts Powderfreak 23000 posts MReaves 2100 posts me 1500 posts. Dendrite gets the congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Dendrite 21000 posts Powderfreak 23000 posts MReaves 2100 posts me 1500 posts. Dendrite gets the congrats. It's been congrats VT this winter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 It's been congrats VT this winter though. Just have to go look at the snow table to see who the winners are................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Longitude storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Longitude storm Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Well obviously. But where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Well obviously. But where?Prob west of 91 is best but everyone changes to accumulating snow west to east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 You could envision 1st Q of Pats game heavy rain and 37 and cat paws start mixing in as game moves along and by 4th q all heavy wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Nothing better than a 20 inch added base to ski areas, holy cow do the Whites and Western Maine Mts get smoked. Upslope delight over here with that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I think SNE deserves the blue bomb.Yes. Hopefully that's considered by the numerical models.Still 5 days out, could be you James with the blue bomb when all is said and done...or it could be the Tug Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Yes. Hopefully that's considered by the numerical models. Unfortunately for James, mother nature doesn't give a phuck. Stowe deserved more snow than rain last January too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 congrats DendritePeeking, but not invested...yet. That's almost a perfect run for here. I need to get the snow depth sensor running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 If you are going to try and guess where a rain/snow line sets up 5 days out, I'd suggest moving to the banter thread. Let's keep this as model analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Unfortunately for James, mother nature doesn't give a phuck. Stowe deserved more snow than rain last January too. And you deserved an eastern Mass only blizzard in Feb 2012...but yes, there are lots of times when deviations from climate norms make us think it should be the other way around. Deserved is always an odd phrase though for weather which is so totally chaotic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Peeking, but not invested...yet. That's almost a perfect run for here. I need to get the snow depth sensor running. And prep that extra room. I like freshly squeezed OJ in the morning, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 And prep that extra room. I like freshly squeezed OJ in the morning, thanks.snow party at Eek's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Hmm. I dunno -- I think we ought to wait until this comes on shore out west, tomorrow. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45248-model-discussion-thread/?p=3252050 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Dendrite 21000 posts Powderfreak 23000 posts MReaves 2100 posts me 1500 posts. Dendrite gets the congrats. no man it's been my running joke with Brian since the epic 07-08 winter for him when every storm he jackpotted.If you see congrats Dendrite take it as a CNE NNE win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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