dryslot Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Beggars can't be choosers though. It's better than a raging +NAO. We shall see how it works out going forward, It looks pretty active with waves coming up from the S/W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 are you talking about sun nite / monday?Yes I think we'll see this trend more favorable the next few runs. That clipper is garbage and will end up sheared or congrats DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 Yeah I'm not sure why the wrist slitting over MLK. Forget it. That's a good look going forward with good model agreement like Snowgoose said. Is it Jan 2011, probably not..but I'll take it. The MLK threat is a total mirage to me right now. I just don't see much outside of NNE...we'd have to get extremely lucky. Don't get me wrong, I'd take it for sure if we did, but I am not going to be holding my breath each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Yes I think we'll see this trend more favorable the next few runs. That clipper is garbage and will end up sheared or congrats DC Good luck buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Good luck buddy.Better chance than your clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 For those focused on MLK you want to see this setup.....I assume SNE did pretty good, we got 4-6 inches on LI but notice as how CoastalWX said earlier what we want with this one...this event had a low at 700mb http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1993/us1211.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 the day 10 EPS is the best it's looked all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 For those focused on MLK you want to see this setup.....I assume SNE did pretty good, we got 4-6 inches on LI but notice as how CoastalWX said earlier what we want with this one...this event had a low at 700mb http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1993/us1211.php this produced up to 8" in south jersey and it also had a closed 700mb low http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2006/us0115.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Look how far H5 dug. That's what you really want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Yup..I'm telling you..the Sunday night one is the one to watch..not the crap clipper. Don't get too crazy ..but it's got far more potential and a better chance at happening than the sheared out mess behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Yup..I'm telling you..the Sunday night one is the one to watch..not the crap clipper. Don't get too crazy ..but it's got far more potential and a better chance at happening than the sheared out mess behind it The clipper will have big potential if the first system explodes because it will act as a -NAO so the clipper will be able to slow and perhaps redevelop off the MA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Yup..I'm telling you..the Sunday night one is the one to watch..not the crap clipper. Don't get too crazy ..but it's got far more potential and a better chance at happening than the sheared out mess behind it I guess maybe hopes for an inch or two don't have to be astronomical for you, but you are talking an awful lot about something both questionable and meager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I guess maybe hopes for an inch or two don't have to be astronomical for you, but you are talking an awful lot about something both questionable and meager. I'm not looking for or thinking anything big ..Just a continuation of a smaller type event..that starts as rain and ends as accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 the day 10 EPS is the best it's looked all winterhit play http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015011412&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=486 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 hit playhttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015011412&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=486Solid right through d15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 in december the good pattern never made it to day 10 if i remember correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 the MLK system is more amplified along with the atlantic ridge ahead of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The MLK system looks to be more amplified than originally thought and now seems like a real player in our atmospheric hemisphere for the time being and could act as a 50/50 low for the clipper system in question for next Tuesday/Wednesday. Now in order for this to work out so we can cash in on the clipper, we need this anafrontal low to maneuver itself towards the 50N/50W benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 And JCT CT said something about the Euro being a Weenie Run at 120hrs...can someone elaborate on just what he saw? WinterWolf, check out my reply in the banter thread. It is more appropriate there, and I think you will be pleasantly disappointed with what I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 WinterWolf, check out my reply in the banter thread. It is more appropriate there, and I think you will be pleasantly disappointed with what I saw. He wouldn't hate the 18Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 He wouldn't hate the 18Z GFSNot far from a region wide dumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 12z gfs drops Monday qpf for AUG by an inch - to about 1.75". However, it shows a cold rain, on north winds, from a storm center tracking Montauk-Cape Cod-HUL. I could understand that happening on Halloween or Patriot's Day, but it's the bottom of winter. Shows once again how little I know about how weather works. whats curious to me is exactly what you describe, all that cold getting scoured out happens but with North winds, ah somethings amiss Here's how: More specifically, if the 850mb low goes to your north, you're gonna mix or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Here's how: gfs_kaug_120.GIF More specifically, if the 850mb low goes to your north, you're gonna mix or rain. Northerly winds don"t rain in interior Maine in winter, sleet or ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 the MLK system is more amplified along with the atlantic ridge ahead of it The MLK system looks to be more amplified than originally thought and now seems like a real player in our atmospheric hemisphere for the time being and could act as a 50/50 low for the clipper system in question for next Tuesday/Wednesday. Now in order for this to work out so we can cash in on the clipper, we need this anafrontal low to maneuver itself towards the 50N/50W benchmark. Can people please start including which model and run they're referring to? I know that this has to be the 18Z GFS based on time of day, but it makes reading through multiple pages much more difficult to follow along without labels. Kthx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Northerly winds don"t rain in interior Maine in winter, sleet or iceSoutheast mid level winds would. ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 18Z GFS phases earlier and far enough offshore to wrap in the cold air sooner. A changeover with a couple inches in interior NCT and higher amounts as you move north and east from northern ORH into Central and Northern New England. Just one run but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Southeast mid level winds would. ZR? Much more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 18Z GFS phases earlier and far enough offshore to wrap in the cold air sooner. A changeover with a couple inches in interior NCT and higher amounts as you move north and east from northern ORH into Central and Northern New England. Just one run but something to watch. congrats Dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Northerly winds don"t rain in interior Maine in winter, sleet or ice Freezing rain is a self-limiting process due to latent heat release. A cold northerly fetch at the sfc can usually make up for it, but in this case very heavy qpf can actually work against you. (as opposed to the more typical / oppose scenario where you have warm right at the sfc and cold above where you need the heavy qpf) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 18z GFS is much much more interesting. Probably a fair amount of snow on the western flank of that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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