Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 12z gfs drops Monday qpf for AUG by an inch - to about 1.75". However, it shows a cold rain, on north winds, from a storm center tracking Montauk-Cape Cod-HUL. I could understand that happening on Halloween or Patriot's Day, but it's the bottom of winter. Shows once again how little I know about how weather works. whats curious to me is exactly what you describe, all that cold getting scoured out happens but with North winds, ah somethings amiss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 So is there anything out there at 12z that looks promising for next week, or no? Alot of talk about rain I see for Monday. And JCT CT said something about the Euro being a Weenie Run at 120hrs...can someone elaborate on just what he saw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Hate to bring up 1888 again but there are similarities. Need the trough to dig a little more SE and H5 to close off a little sooner. Not out of the question. Look how the trough is digging on today guidance compared to the guidance from a couple of days ago. Now, this is still needle threading because my scenario can still easily turn out to be a EURO like rainy solution. I am intrigued by this one! Well neg tilt isn't weird, but being as far west as the Euro is...it's much further west with the whole phase than the others. Even th eGGEM is a neg tilt...it's just too late to give us anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Hate to bring up 1888 again but there are similarities. Need the trough to dig a little more SE and H5 to close off a little sooner. Not out of the question. Look how the trough is digging on today guidance compared to the guidance from a couple of days ago. Now, this is still needle threading because my scenario can still easily turn out to be a EURO like rainy solution. I am intrigued by this one! 1888? Are you high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 1888? Are you high? High??? No Crazy??? Maybe Just want to point out that there is still room for an extreme "fun" solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 1888? Are you high? More like needle using, not threading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 Hate to bring up 1888 again but there are similarities. Need the trough to dig a little more SE and H5 to close off a little sooner. Not out of the question. Look how the trough is digging on today guidance compared to the guidance from a couple of days ago. Now, this is still needle threading because my scenario can still easily turn out to be a EURO like rainy solution. I am intrigued by this one! We don't have nearly the cold air right on the opposite side of the front as a storm like 1888 did...so the comparison dies there. I mean, you'd have to have this thing another 500 miles southeast to start thinking about a cold blizzard on the west side of this...get that airmass over central/eastern Ontario into the system. Lets just say I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Looks like the Euro 12z Ensembles take the monday system over the cape into the GOM, Can't see individuals but its east of the OP run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 High??? No Crazy??? Maybe Just want to point out that there is still room for an extreme "fun" solution. Or more likely, the dozens of pedestrian outcomes that have occurred since then with a similar look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I agree with Scott, this looks pedestrian at best, not going to produce for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 We are better off if this thing moves out progressively and get the clipper to amplify as it heads through the region so we can get a redeveloper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Looks like the Euro 12z Ensembles take the monday system over the cape into the GOM, Can't see individuals but its east of the OP runnice mean for you and west of 495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I agree with Scott, this looks pedestrian at best, not going to produce for SNE. Well I mean in the sense that I don't expect 4' of snow over CT. Call me crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Looks like the Euro 12z Ensembles take the monday system over the cape into the GOM, Can't see individuals but its east of the OP runNow that's more like it. Ukie ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The problem once again is that you have to establish a mid level low. You can have the thing develop over you and move E. Not gonna get it done. We need both the mid level low and srfc reflection further south if you live anywhere in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 Clipper looks decent on the ensemble mean. Tons of spread though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Clipper looks decent on the ensemble mean. Tons of spread though.So I take it as its not shredded like what the op shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Looks like the Euro 12z Ensembles take the monday system over the cape into the GOM, Can't see individuals but its east of the OP runSplitting hairs but definitely some spread west which isn't what I wanted to see... Mean to me looked over BOS. I'll check the individuals in a few minutes. The problem is without it going negative early or any closed mid-level lows to back the winds easterly earlier, the snow potential is pretty low except due NNW of the surface low. The best forcing goes north of the low, and doesn't really wrap west into the cold dome. It won't matter if it tracks east of you if the mid levels don't develop quicker. So regardless of where it tracks, the snow potential seems small, but if we could just avoid rain I'll take that as a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 So I take it as its not shredded like what the op shows Correct. Also has the D9-10 system tracking over the BM on the ensemble mean. Pretty weenie-ish ensemble run today from the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Clipper looks decent on the ensemble mean. Tons of spread though. Unfortunately it's a week out...many of the potential clippers and systems have looked decent this year a week out. By the weekend this should start looking less and less decent if we are to follow the normal progression of the modeling so far this season. BUT, perhaps this time around, we break out of this horrid cycle and things progress in a positive way.....maybe???? Would be nice to see. Hoping so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Now that's more like it. Ukie ish GYX has a HWO out on it for heavy snow sleet and freezing rain Sunday Night/Mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 It's still a very meager looking system, but the bar should be low on that clipper anyways. We continue with an east based look on the ensemble regarding -NAO after. People have to remember anything of any significance is AFTER the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Splitting hairs but definitely some spread west which isn't what I wanted to see... Mean to me looked over BOS. I'll check the individuals in a few minutes. The problem is without it going negative early or any closed mid-level lows to back the winds easterly earlier, the snow potential is pretty low except due NNW of the surface low. The best forcing goes north of the low, and doesn't really wrap west into the cold dome. It won't matter if it tracks east of you if the mid levels don't develop quicker. So regardless of where it tracks, the snow potential seems small, but if we could just avoid rain I'll take that as a win. Still a ways out so i'm sure this changes more as we get closer for better or worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 It's still a very meager looking system, but the bar should be low on that clipper anyways. We continue with an east based look on the ensemble regarding -NAO after. People have to remember anything of any significance is AFTER the clipper. Eh, I'd rather it be west myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I don't know if its just a relativity thing compared to how bad the or inconsistent the models had been a few weeks back but it sure seems to me the last few days they have been more in agreement and consistent from run to run in the medium range and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 It's still a very meager looking system, but the bar should be low on that clipper anyways. We continue with an east based look on the ensemble regarding -NAO after. People have to remember anything of any significance is AFTER the clipper. Yeah the clipper is the first attempt to get anything, but still not a great chance. But it's plausible. It's got an uphill climb though. The look we've been semi-excited about is really the 1/23 and beyond period. Ensembles also look like they try and cook something up around 1/26-1/27. I'm not even thinking about anything outside the northern hills/mountains for MLK day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 GYX has a HWO out on it for heavy snow sleet and freezing rain Sunday Night/MonYeah BOX Prob hits it harder. This looks like one of those better with longitude tjan latitude storms where it's better NYC vs BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Eh, I'd rather it be west myself Beggars can't be choosers though. It's better than a raging +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Yeah the clipper is the first attempt to get anything, but still not a great chance. But it's plausible. It's got an uphill climb though. The look we've been semi-excited about is really the 1/23 and beyond period. Ensembles also look like they try and cook something up around 1/26-1/27. I'm not even thinking about anything outside the northern hills/mountains for MLK day. Yeah I'm not sure why the wrist slitting over MLK. Forget it. That's a good look going forward with good model agreement like Snowgoose said. Is it Jan 2011, probably not..but I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Yeah BOX Prob hits it harder. This looks like one of those better with longitude tjan latitude storms where it's better NYC vs BOS are you talking about sun nite / monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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