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Model discussion thread


ORH_wxman

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Such drastic changes in 5H, curious as to what shakes out here. Interesting to me.

 

Not sure it's that drastic of a change... just more amplified and storm phasing farther west. With no blocking it's not out of the question but not much ensemble support for it now. 

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As far as Killington goes thats an upslope machine after initial ice to snow. easily could trend colder too, some great dynamics it appears. something to track with that kind of vorticity.

 

I'd be surprised if the storm ends up that far west given the rest of the model guidance...the ski resorts should hopefully come away unscathed...and perhps they can add to the base. For us in SNE, we probably want as unphased as possible to keep that 5H low progressive and moving out...that gives us the best chance for the clipper behind it to amplify into a nice little redeveloper.

 

Models are all over the map on how they handle the first feature, so there's going to be a lot of different solutions in the next day or two.

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The Euro is a rainer for powderfreak even...that's an ugly solution. Hopefully it doesn't verify. I'd rather keep the ski resorts ice-free.

 

Yeah I just looked at that and was like WTF.  Didn't see that solution coming. Hopefully its just a EURO over-amped deal, but something worth considering.

 

The problem with that system, is it doesn't look like no matter where it tracks that there'd be any snowfall thats really worthwhile except in a very very narrow band.  Its a lose-lose storm.  Even if you thread the needle, it has no advection into the cold dome so its useless.

 

It would be better if that system just falls apart, lol.

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I'd be surprised if the storm ends up that far west given the rest of the model guidance...the ski resorts should hopefully come away unscathed...and perhps they can add to the base. For us in SNE, we probably want as unphased as possible to keep that 5H low progressive and moving out...that gives us the best chance for the clipper behind it to amplify into a nice little redeveloper.

 

Models are all over the map on how they handle the first feature, so there's going to be a lot of different solutions in the next day or two.

You can see that on the Canadian perfectly, it's essentially a non-event with the weekend deal and then gives the clipper room to amplify into a 1-3/2-4" sort of deal.

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GEM has the midweek clipper system. Doesnt really go underneath us, but close enough i guess. Gives most of the region a nice little event. Probably a couple inches for moist folks.

 

Next weekend I think is first real period to watch, at least for this area. Looks like that Monday storm is a fail, and clippers are hit and miss. That time frame might be the first real period to watch if you are interested in snow in SNE.

 

Gfs brews up a nice storm in that period, while the GEM is a cutter. That is all noise at this time, but the storm idea is there.

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I don't know if the clipper can turn out to be anything other than 1-3" deal, its not something to look forward to like the other clipper this winter.

 

 

If the Monday system moves far enough northeast, the clipper could definitely be more than 1-3"...but there is no way to know that yet this far out. We could also have partly sunny skies on NW winds if that Monday system gets stalled N of CAR.

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Yeah I just looked at that and was like WTF.  Didn't see that solution coming. Hopefully its just a EURO over-amped deal, but something worth considering.

 

The problem with that system, is it doesn't look like no matter where it tracks that there'd be any snowfall thats really worthwhile except in a very very narrow band.  Its a lose-lose storm.  Even if you thread the needle, it has no advection into the cold dome so its useless.

 

It would be better if that system just falls apart, lol.

 

Actually it does crush the Adirondacks verbatim, but again, very narrow zone of a few counties only. 

 

Too much risk with this system for the possible reward. 

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I'd be surprised if the storm ends up that far west given the rest of the model guidance...the ski resorts should hopefully come away unscathed...and perhps they can add to the base. For us in SNE, we probably want as unphased as possible to keep that 5H low progressive and moving out...that gives us the best chance for the clipper behind it to amplify into a nice little redeveloper.

 

Models are all over the map on how they handle the first feature, so there's going to be a lot of different solutions in the next day or two.

that is not far from being a pretty good storm, the clipper can wait. there is actually a block in the Euro scenario, phase this east a couple of degrees of latitude and we got something.

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that is not far from being a pretty good storm, the clipper can wait. there is actually a block in the Euro scenario, phase this east a couple of degrees of latitude and we got something.

 

 

Theoretically...but such a small probability of it occurring. This is like threading the needle and back...twice. I'd be shocked (and pleasantly surprised) if SNE got a significant snow out of that.

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it has what he wants to see?  Not sure why else it would have the best handle.

 

IMO the period to watch for this area is next weekend, for something bigger-ish/anything at all

 

Haha I had to actually go track down to see what it had, even though I already knew it was probably the most favorable solution out there.  As there's absolutely no other reason DIT would post that, haha.

 

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I don't know why the negative tilt idea got discounted so early here, Euro has it too.

 

 

Well neg tilt isn't weird, but being as far west as the Euro is...it's much further west with the whole phase than the others.

 

Even th eGGEM is a neg tilt...it's just too late to give us anything.

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12z gfs drops Monday qpf for AUG by an inch - to about 1.75".  However, it shows a cold rain, on north winds, from a storm center tracking Montauk-Cape Cod-HUL.  I could understand that happening on Halloween or Patriot's Day, but it's the bottom of winter.  Shows once again how little I know about how weather works.  ;) 

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