40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 no it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Yes it is. a coating of slush is hardly concerning. if it actually precipitates...there's a fair chance it's just light rain or wet slop anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 It's got a shot for a coating to an inch or two out there based on QPF alone, but guidance suggests temps will likely be a bit too warm for most of it. A little further inland(BOS/south shore/TAN area), probably has a better shot at actually seeing something on the ground because the profile can support snow, but anything more than an 0.5" or so is pushing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 What a paste bomb for the mountains and northern maine on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 It's got a shot for a coating to an inch or two out there based on QPF alone, but guidance suggests temps will likely be a bit too warm for most of it. A little further inland(BOS/south shore/TAN area), probably has a better shot at actually seeing something on the ground because the profile can support snow, but anything more than an 0.5" or so is pushing it. if there's an opportunity for something it's probably coastal SE MA...Scooter's hood down to GHG area. they should remain west of the coastal boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 GFS rips apart the clipper next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Buzz saw again But the anafrontal looks a little better than the earlier run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 So the old GFS is totally gone now, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Buzz saw again But the anafrontal looks a little better than the earlier run The problem with this is that the moisture is all along and east of the front. There is no good TROWAL or well formed H7 low to throw moisture back. I don't like the look as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 So the old GFS is totally gone now, correct? Yes, I have it out to hr 204 and its not truncated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The problem with this is that the moisture is all along and east of the front. There is no good TROWAL or well formed H7 low to throw moisture back. I don't like the look as of now. Yeah it sucks the way it is being played out. Maybe the first storm will consolidate as it comes off the west coast ridge, but probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 What a weenie run the 12z GFS is out at hr 228...............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 What a weenie run the 12z GFS is out at hr 228...............lol Stuck at 204 on NCEP and Tropicalbits. Something nice was brewing with a southern storm brewing with northern stream energy passing by. A hookup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Stuck at 204 on NCEP and Tropicalbits. Something nice was brewing with a southern storm brewing with northern stream energy passing by. A hookup? A model hallucination, most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Yeah it sucks the way it is being played out. Maybe the first storm will consolidate as it comes off the west coast ridge, but probably not. This thing literally popped up in our radar screen over the last 24 hrs. Prior to that, it was a mild day and then a fropa. So, for people do be down about this not working out...treat it how we saw it yesterday. In other words, it's not like we had a storm modeled 4-5 days out and now it's gone or rain. Anafrontal events barely work out in the best of winters...it's the nature of them. Maybe it blows up to our SE, but best not to expect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Stuck at 204 on NCEP and Tropicalbits. Something nice was brewing with a southern storm brewing with northern stream energy passing by. A hookup? Miller A right up the coast, 984mb in the Gulf Of Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Only 9 more days to hold it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Only 9 more days to hold it. Only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 What we need is what the Euro showed last night. A slower evolution..allows the cold to get in here while still raining which flips it over to heavy wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Miller A right up the coast, 984mb in the Gulf Of Maine hellooooo revamped GFS welcome aboard lol\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 This thing literally popped up in our radar screen over the last 24 hrs. Prior to that, it was a mild day and then a fropa. So, for people do be down about this not working out...treat it how we saw it yesterday. In other words, it's not like we had a storm modeled 4-5 days out and now it's gone or rain. Anafrontal events barely work out in the best of winters...it's the nature of them. Maybe it blows up to our SE, but best not to expect that. Yeah. Did not expect anything, so not putting much effort into this one at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 What a weenie run the 12z GFS is out at hr 228...............lol Well, all we really have seen this year is Weenie/Fantasy runs...nothing plays out. Fun to look at I guess. A Big Miller A...I think I speak for all when I say, "Believe it when it's 36 hours out!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 hellooooo revamped GFS welcome aboard lol\ That would get many to come off the ledge, Only can go downhill from here...................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 This thing literally popped up in our radar screen over the last 24 hrs. Prior to that, it was a mild day and then a fropa. So, for people do be down about this not working out...treat it how we saw it yesterday. In other words, it's not like we had a storm modeled 4-5 days out and now it's gone or rain. Anafrontal events barely work out in the best of winters...it's the nature of them. Maybe it blows up to our SE, but best not to expect that. I don't know, I remember posting a week ago about the GEFS showing a possible east coast storm around the two week mark, with a similar evolution to what is being shown now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Just think, in 5 days, it will still be 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 I don't know, I remember posting a week ago about the GEFS showing a possible east coast storm around the two week mark, with a similar evolution to what is being shown now. I wouldn't count a 336-360 hour GEFS run showing a storm and then losing it for 7-8 days as much of a signal for a storm. You could probably use that criteria for like 75% of all days in the winter. Sunday has looked like a mild downslope FROPA day for a while now...now it looks like potential rain, but not all guidance agrees yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I don't know, I remember posting a week ago about the GEFS showing a possible east coast storm around the two week mark, with a similar evolution to what is being shown now. Well you'll really have a heart attack if you do that..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Interesting run, at the end..the arctic hammer drops into the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The anafrontal low is fascinating in my opinion, only showing up within 24 hours ago. With that amount of energy, the models could show a better solution in the future, just hold onto the faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Scott do you think the inverted trough brings anything else but rain to Cape Cod? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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