powderfreak Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The para definitely looks messy. However, that would still be at least some snow for the majority here. Even if only a few inches. Verbatim, it may also flip folks back over on the backside. It also has that clipper/redeveloper a few days later. This is a pretty interesting storm to track. Seems like the first storm where most on this forum could get a piece of the action Yeah the Para has been jumping around, not confidence inspiring. The GFS has been pretty steady though ticking colder overall in the past 24 hours. The SWFE seems to have some traction but we are a long way out. A loooooong way out in model world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Yeah the Para has been jumping around, not confidence inspiring. The GFS has been pretty steady though ticking colder overall in the past 24 hours. The SWFE seems to have some traction but we are a long way out. A loooooong way out in model world. Yeah really anything is still on the table SWFE would make sense, and it would give all a shot at some quick frozen at least. Hard to believe we are still almost a week out from this lol. You know its been a slow season when a storm this far out is getting a lot of attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The clipper really has me caught on. I think this system has the best potential to deliver the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 sorry , clipper on day#? ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Yeah the Para has been jumping around, not confidence inspiring. The GFS has been pretty steady though ticking colder overall in the past 24 hours. The SWFE seems to have some traction but we are a long way out. A loooooong way out in model world. Seems like we have been tracking this one for an eternity, We need some MECS and a SECS or two other then these nickel and dime events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Seems like we have been tracking this one for an eternity, We need some MECS and a SECS or two other then these nickel and dime events You can find a thread somewhere from eastern where I was bitching about tracking an inch for a week in January 2004. Of course a week later all was forgiven....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 You can find a thread somewhere from eastern where I was bitching about tracking an inch for a week in January 2004. Of course a week later all was forgiven....lol. I hope most get to see the light again the next few weeks Jerry, Looks like we will get some cracks at it, Right now, I am all for unleashing the hounds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Heights of the cold air rushing down look lower in this run of the 0z gfs. The moisture down in the gulf may not be healthy enough to withstand the shear and may dry up before making it up here for the 1/4 storm. I hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 Plenty of juice on the GFS...too much in fact. Another west solution...but its colder yet again. The high is a 1040 beast that stands its ground pretty good just N of Caribou...a prime spot for front end thumps in our area. This run flips to rain eventually...but there's definitely been a colder trend on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Plenty of juice on the GFS...too much in fact. Another west solution...but its colder yet again. The high is a 1040 beast that stands its ground pretty good just N of Caribou...a prime spot for front end thumps in our area. This run flips to rain eventually...but there's definitely been a colder trend on the GFS. That's dam cold. The high sort of moves N and doesn't retreat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Plenty of juice on the GFS...too much in fact. Another west solution...but its colder yet again. The high is a 1040 beast that stands its ground pretty good just N of Caribou...a prime spot for front end thumps in our area. This run flips to rain eventually...but there's definitely been a colder trend on the GFS. Front end thump to ice for some on this run but the trend has been colder which i think continues as models start picking up on the cold high to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 This would be a nice way to close out 2 weeks of vacation. Looks like a classic thump>dryslot>FZDZ scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 That's dam cold. The high sort of moves N and doesn't retreat. Over runner starting to become more prevalent on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 That's dam cold. The high sort of moves N and doesn't retreat. Reminds me a lot of the 12/16/07 high. Obviously details like that don't mean much, but this run is similar except the storm is a shade further west, so we probably flip to a bit more rain than that one (well any rain would be more than that one since my high that day was 31), but that would still prob be a pretty big thump and you know the interior prob wouldn't warm in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 That high means businesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Wow, no kidding. Seems like this could be sort of similar to VD 2007 with a surface low coming from like Chicago but staying underneath most of us because of strong HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 That high means businesses Just north of CAR is about the perfect high spot for front end thumps in New England...or completely holding off the mid-level warming all together if far enough north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Reminds me a lot of the 12/16/07 high. Obviously details like that don't mean much, but this run is similar except the storm is a shade further west, so we probably flip to a bit more rain than that one (well any rain would be more than that one since my high that day was 31), but that would still prob be a pretty big thump and you know the interior prob wouldn't warm in that scenario. I was just about to draw that 12/16/07 analogy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Looks like the new GFS likes going west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Just north of CAR is about the perfect high spot for front end thumps in New England...or completely holding off the mid-level warming all together if far enough north. You can see how the mid level warming hits a brick wall and then moves east as it approaches the region, Something to watch going forward as the models start to pick up on it if holds or builds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Meh on the para. Maybe a thump for NH Vermont and Maine, but looks like most go over to rain or even start as rain in SNE. Thats a damn strong storm though as modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 This is exactly how you make up for a lost month...Dec '07 for about a month, then weak el Nino/NAO home to the promised land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 This is exactly how you make up for a lost month...Dec '07 for about a month, then weak el Nino/NAO home to the promised land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Looks like the new GFS likes going west of us. Front end snow to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Cautiously cautious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 This is exactly how you make up for a lost month...Dec '07 for about a month, then weak el Nino/NAO home to the promised land lock it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 This is exactly how you make up for a lost month...Dec '07 for about a month, then weak el Nino/NAO home to the promised land If it worked out like that, we'll all be shoveling off our roofs come VDay. 0z (OP) GFS looked very Dec. '07-esque again. 6-10" thump to quick changeover/dryslot. Like tauntonblizz said before, the para was pretty meh. Kept the primary dominant to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Front end snow to rain I love the solution variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I love the solution variability. Seems to be the reoccurring theme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I wish this system could have come along last year, before we had the para lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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