Zeus Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 This is one of the instances discussed where you can get backside snows as a low moves up the front along the coast Things one should not rely on to deliver: anafrontal precip, backlash precip, inverted troughs, "Windex" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 Is it as mild Sunday as GFS is? I dunno, it's close..maybe a little cooler. We're talking like 41F vs 47F....it's a trivial difference in terms of sensible wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Sunday will be warm in the late morning to early afternoon followed by a cold front later on in the afternoon. Front sits offshore Monday morning as a low develops on the tail end. Then it skirts up the East Coast, GFS ensemble mean is in agreement on a benchmark track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Lol at Kevin. Critical to hold the 1.4" pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Things one should not rely on to deliver: anafrontal precip, backlash precip, inverted troughs, "Windex" In this case verbatim on the euro with the trough axis running north to south it could produce as the wave moves along to the north as it tracks from HSE thru DE Maine, But its all fodder at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 That's fine. Start with something like that to change things around. Better than nothing. Does it really do much to change anything? We have had a number of fronts blow through here that have resulted in bupkis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Why so Serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Does it really do much to change anything? We have had a number of fronts blow through here that have resulted in bupkis Pattern going forward doesn't look nearly as dry as what we have had though. I'm not saying it will cause a -NAO, but sometimes those precede pattern reshuffles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Overall things look decent in the guidance. It this next period fails snow wise, I'm all in on futility cheering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 We start getting into Feb with nothing significant then...................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 It looks like the 12z EURO supports OES on Tuesday next week, maybe a far more impressive situation with close to -15C to -20C temps across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 12z CMC also shows some blob on Weds/Thurs (next week) I'm looking at the tropical tidbits site and the graphics are better than I am used to for that model, so maybe that is what I am thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 It looks like the 12z EURO supports OES on Tuesday next week, maybe a far more impressive situation with close to -15C to -20C temps across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I forgot to include OES in my list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I don't really see the pessimism. I actually like the look going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I know Scott, I like what I see too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The Euro has wanted no part of the cutter the PARA and the CMC have been advertising seemingly forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I don't really see the pessimism. I actually like the look going forward. Agree. Hopefully it delivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The Euro has wanted no part of the cutter the PARA and the CMC have been advertising seemingly forever Yes it has. It just backed off on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Yes it has. It just backed off on the 12z run. Even when it had it the appearance was more in line that it would be undergoing an eventual transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Even when it had it the appearance was more in line that it would be undergoing an eventual transfer Are we talking Day 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The thing I see different is two things. One, the ridging may try to go back and forth between the Aleutians and western NAMR, and also..the Rossby wave features look more amplified than anything we saw since 12/27 or so. So, while I cannot obviously determine how snowy it will be...I definitely would role the dice on this pattern. Is it a KU pattern, no...but it's not particularly dry to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I don't really see the pessimism. I actually like the look going forward. I'm not being pessimistic, I just didn't see a huge change. I guess there is more moisture avail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The thing I see different is two things. One, the ridging may try to go back and forth between the Aleutians and western NAMR, and also..the Rossby wave features look more amplified than anything we saw since 12/27 or so. So, while I cannot obviously determine how snowy it will be...I definitely would role the dice on this pattern. Is it a KU pattern, no...but it's not particularly dry to me. Thats where this pattern to me has been very 1980s...that seemed to be a big problem from 1980-1992..not so much we were not cold but that the ridging was often too far west out there...I don't know if were stuck in a prolonged -PNA/-EPO during those years but it sure seemed that way and the PARA says that may occur again...the Euro/Old GFS seem more optimistic on the ridge being over the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Thats where this pattern to me has been very 1980s...that seemed to be a big problem from 1980-1992..not so much we were not cold but that the ridging was often too far west out there...I don't know if were stuck in a prolonged -PNA/-EPO during those years but it sure seemed that way and the PARA says that may occur again...the Euro/Old GFS seem more optimistic on the ridge being over the US I mean maybe we get skunked..I don't know...but the ensembles as a whole don't look the same to me like they did over 2 weeks ago. Even the op runs sort of show storms coming in different ways. Two weeks ago they showed very little and I sort of questioned it..but they were right. It's not a blockbuster pattern..but hopefully offers something more fun than what we have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I forgot to include OES in my list. Slacking, It come as you get older, Its called CRS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Thats where this pattern to me has been very 1980s...that seemed to be a big problem from 1980-1992..not so much we were not cold but that the ridging was often too far west out there...I don't know if were stuck in a prolonged -PNA/-EPO during those years but it sure seemed that way and the PARA says that may occur again...the Euro/Old GFS seem more optimistic on the ridge being over the US Starting tomorrow, We will be down to one, GFS for better or worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Per Ryan Maue's tweets they are going ahead with the gfs upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Per Ryan Maue's tweets they are going ahead with the gfs upgrade Does it start at 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 12z tomorrow Does it start at 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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