weathafella Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I wouldn't mind a mega torch at this point but there is no sign of that I the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 It's coming,the constant angst will soon be relieved. Are you sure? I'm starting to feel like this winter isn't behaving like a typical weak nino and this theory of a back loaded winter may just be a theory, not reality. I'm still patiently waiting, but I'm being tested that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 At least the op runs are showing storms. Both snow and cutters. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Models are beginning to edge towards producing precipitation over Cape Cod and Eastern MA for the coastal storm this upcoming week, and OES and a potential inverted trough. Any chance the HIRES NAM and NAM and SREFs are right, even EURO shows some moisture clipping Cape Cod come the 16th. Hires nam, nam, srefs, all utterly useless at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Every single met going with persistence .. C&D @cshabbott: My guess is first week of Feb is cold. But dry. Pattern blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 It's a good thing we can't forecast 7 days from now let alone 20-30 days from now or I would actually be remotely concerned about people guessing about first week of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Heh, no one asked but ...kind of bored with coastals after 2013 anyway. Two blizzard warn events totaling nearly 20" of powder here, with wind gusts to 50mph in sub-freezing cold. Been there done that.... I think it more interesting when something happens less than expected... We haven't had that, either, just saying. But I'm with Ray and Jerry... when it gets to be a grind this way, even I find a day like today, with perpetual road mist at 33F to be off-putting. I was heads down at work anyway, but I'm already psyched for TCU and the smell of humidity. Distance thunder rumbles in a Severe Watch. I really can change gears on a dime with this stuff, and take my interest in Meteorological events into a different season in a heartbeat. If we SE ridged out and did something anti-El Nino, well... I'd be fine with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Anyway ...having said all that. I suppose 144 to 174 hours has some interest. There are bundles of v-maxes pearled out below a SPV out there in the Pac, running east around the 40th parallel... In time, the models seems to fuse these into more like 2 or 3 distinct jet cores that slam into the Canadian Rockies around 72 to 84 hours from now. All models have been wavering on amplitude with this wind debris once it is ejected E out of the Canadian Rockies. I'm having trouble with the PNA, and just what the index really is. The CPC gang has a rather dullard, N/S looking curve... while CDC has two distinct spikes ranging close to +2.5SD. Be that as it may, so long as the index is statically positive, at just about any time, a trough scooting E of 110W might end up being more diggy when it comes to actually scoot E of that longitude - particularly if heights pop up on it's azz and supports wave kinematics. Also, noticing the heights over Florida finally relaxing prior to hour 96. 582dm S of Miami, with balanced mid level velocities only 25 kts, usually means the flow's compressibility has returned. In other words, ...S/Ws encounter less shearing as they pass into the TV. It's a correction to get there, but there are aspects about the flow that "could" support some more of a deeper signal into the OV/TV region out there in the latter middle range. But ...given this season's remarkable propensity to deconstruct any possibility of cold intersecting with storminess here in the E, it might be also worth it to ignore this thing ...lest wasting time, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Its still going to end up a below normal snow winter, the only exception would be we get a KU event which is entirely possible but right now my guesses for the bigger cities on winter snow are BOS - 28, NYC - 18, ORH - 55, PVD - 22...thats pretty disgustingly bad, I'm assuming no KU, if that happens then those could be at least 12 inches higher.amazing given the expectations going into this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Every single met going with persistence .. C&D @cshabbott: My guess is first week of Feb is cold. But dry. Pattern blows makes sense you are only wrong once with persistence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 It's a good thing we can't forecast 7 days from now let alone 20-30 days from now or I would actually be remotely concerned about people guessing about first week of Feb.[/quoteMy goodness, you are so right. This guy that Kevin quoted, says his "guess" is cold and dry for a period 3-4 weeks from now. While that ofcourse could be the case, I certainly wouldn't be hanging my hat on that "guess" either. While this dead bad pattern could continue for the rest of the winter, I'm choosing not to believe guesses like that at this point in time. There is a lot of winter time to come, and all the long range guesses from all the promising signs this autumn, haven't worked out so well so far either. At this point, anything is possible with regard to the rest of this season..nobody really knows what's going to transpire. I hope Ginxy is right...he may be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 If the EC is right, best arctic surge yet into the CONUS may be coming. MIT with ice boats out on the Charles River basin? Saw it twice as a kid in the late 70's and early 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Heh, no one asked but ...kind of bored with coastals after 2013 anyway. Two blizzard warn events totaling nearly 20" of powder here, with wind gusts to 50mph in sub-freezing cold. Been there done that.... I think it more interesting when something happens less than expected... We haven't had that, either, just saying. But I'm with Ray and Jerry... when it gets to be a grind this way, even I find a day like today, with perpetual road mist at 33F to be off-putting. I was heads down at work anyway, but I'm already psyched for TCU and the smell of humidity. Distance thunder rumbles in a Severe Watch. I really can change gears on a dime with this stuff, and take my interest in Meteorological events into a different season in a heartbeat. If we SE ridged out and did something anti-El Nino, well... I'd be fine with that. As far as SNE is concerned Winter may gradually work it's way from E to W this year with at least one kumbaya event for all. In the meantime the only surprises may be how cold it actually gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 MIT with ice boats out on the Charles River basin? Saw it twice as a kid in the late 70's and early 80's. Saw that here too in '77 on the S Watuppa. Incredibly cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I like to look at this graphic for pure entertainment but sort of gives a quick summary of the model run because its usually fun to see what type of fantasy land storms are out there... but when the second half of January includes an entire 384 hour run of the GFS and pretty much keeps any cummulative snowfall of 6"+ north of the border, its going to be a boring time frame, lol. Congrat's to James on Cape Cod MASS. But overall for a 2-week prog, this is pretty dry across the entire US for snowfall in the last 2 weeks of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Yeah 3" of snowfall for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I thought the GFS run wasn't dry at all. Some storms floating by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I agree Scott, I saw a clipper with a frontal wave developing over VA and heading north, northeastward. There is a chance that if the front moves through before the precip moves in, we could get snow out of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I thought the GFS run wasn't dry at all. Some storms floating by.Where's the storm track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I thought the GFS run wasn't dry at all. Some storms floating by. Deterministically it was dry, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Just loop the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Just loop the run.Yeah I know what you mean Im just joking...if you printed out total QPF for New England stations it was very dry deterministically, but you guys looked prime on one of those. If that happened verbatim though that's a kick in the ballz, if like 4 lows pass just far enough off shore for light snow on the beaches and cirrus over ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Yeah I know what you mean Im just joking...if you printed out total QPF for New England stations it was very dry deterministically, but you guys looked prime on one of those. If that happened verbatim though that's a kick in the ballz, if like 4 lows pass just far enough off shore for light snow on the beaches and cirrus over ORH. I don't think it will. Ridge is near Ak and even Bering sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 Kind of a weenie Euro run in clown range...it gives us a clipper/redeveloper out of 1/21 and then looks primed for 1/23-1/24 with a classic Scooter Canadian Praries high pressing in as an overrunning OV Valley runner moves out of the southern states. These are the types of storms we will have to try and get snow from at least initially in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Kind of a weenie Euro run in clown range...it gives us a clipper/redeveloper out of 1/21 and then looks primed for 1/23-1/24 with a classic Scooter Canadian Praries high pressing in as an overrunning OV Valley runner moves out of the southern states. These are the types of storms we will have to try and get snow from at least initially in this pattern.I would rather it not show something good in clown range tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I like to look at this graphic for pure entertainment but sort of gives a quick summary of the model run because its usually fun to see what type of fantasy land storms are out there... but when the second half of January includes an entire 384 hour run of the GFS and pretty much keeps any cummulative snowfall of 6"+ north of the border, its going to be a boring time frame, lol. Congrat's to James on Cape Cod MASS. But overall for a 2-week prog, this is pretty dry across the entire US for snowfall in the last 2 weeks of January. USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_384.gif The Laurentians FTW. I feel that January is a rather cold and dry month anyway. At least in NNE, the best skiing is always February/March when the most up-slope happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 January and February are normally great months for SNE to receive snowfall. The most prolific blizzard in my lifetime happened in January of 2005. Plus, the SREFs are showing a westward trend in the precip totals for the Thursday/Friday period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NAM is coming in north and west of 6z run with the precip shield, still mainly offshore with the main precip shield, but produces precip on northeasterly surface flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NAM continues to sharpen the shortwave once it hits the East Coast, sharpens up once it gets near our latitude. It also closes off at H7 and H85, creating high precip rates once over the ocean likely fueled by shortwave advection and baroclinicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Kind of a weenie Euro run in clown range...it gives us a clipper/redeveloper out of 1/21 and then looks primed for 1/23-1/24 with a classic Scooter Canadian Praries high pressing in as an overrunning OV Valley runner moves out of the southern states. These are the types of storms we will have to try and get snow from at least initially in this pattern. 4 days in a row for 1/21 I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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