ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 No comments on the latest GFS? Must be more "meh" It's hard to get excited about model solutions over 8 days out. There's really nothing happening in the meantime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Cold And dry as far as we can see . Days and days of it on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 Cold And dry as far as we can see . Days and days of it on the GFS GFS has a mini-torch on Sunday. Euro was not quite as warm...we'd probably make mid 40s if GFS verified. Maybe a 50F in the torch spots of SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 GFS has a mini-torch on Sunday. Euro was not quite as warm...we'd probably make mid 40s if GFS verified. Maybe a 50F in the torch spots of SE MA.Imagine the meltdowns coming up leading up to the one mild day this month. Maybe something middle of next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Imagine the meltdowns coming up leading up to the one mild day this month. Maybe something middle of next week? Why would anyone meltdown when there is nothing? Some nice cutters on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Why would anyone meltdown when there is nothing? Some nice cutters on the GFS.Well knowing the Gfs is wrong with those ideas and that the euro is more correct leading up to next week. You are right though.. There's not many of us left that haven't melted. Maybe 5-10 of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Well knowing the Gfs is wrong with those ideas and that the euro is more correct leading up to next week. You are right though.. There's not many of us left that haven't melted. Maybe 5-10 of us. It's a pattern that allows for cutters and overrunners. Of course nobody knows this far out, but I would expect both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 I moved the psycho-analysis to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Why would anyone meltdown when there is nothing? Some nice cutters on the GFS. I agree. To the contrary, I think another run of sub zero with bare ground would prompt more meltodwns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Euro not buying any of the GFS nonsense about a torch as it blasts a cold front thru the region Sunday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 That is pretty cold for an ensemble mean by 1/26 on the EC ensembles. Could be another arctic outbreak in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 If the EC is right, best arctic surge yet into the CONUS may be coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Do we have signals for systems though or are we talking cold and dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Do we have signals for systems though or are we talking cold and dry? Tough to say this far out, but seems like they could be around. There was something after day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 Do we have signals for systems though or are we talking cold and dry? Maybe something around 1/25...I'm not even convinced the 1/21-22 threat can't be snow, esp for the interior, though that is the one that originally looked like a cutter, so we will see as we get closer. But the ensemble mean is not going to show systems really once past about D12-13...the end of the run just gets too diffuse. But the cold signal today is quite strong for late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 That is pretty cold for an ensemble mean by 1/26 on the EC ensembles. Could be another arctic outbreak in there.Do they agree with op on no warm up to AN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Maybe something around 1/25...I'm not even convinced the 1/21-22 threat can't be snow, esp for the interior, though that is the one that originally looked like a cutter, so we will see as we get closer. But the ensemble mean is not going to show systems really once past about D12-13...the end of the run just gets too diffuse. But the cold signal today is quite strong for late month. That 1/21 deal is something to sort of watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The potential problem I see on the ensembles for the GFS/Euro the last 2-3 days beyond Day 8 is that there could be a -PNA/-EPO again, IMO that ain't gonna cut it, we'll have the same F'ng problem again with stuff cutting west of us and a SE ridge...some other members though suggest +PNA/-EPO...if that verifies we're in business big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 That 1/21 deal is something to sort of watch. 1/21 may depend on the offshore "hurricane" some ensembles show, if thats there it may act as a block to an extent, especially if its off Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 Do they agree with op on no warm up to AN? Sunday still looks kind of mildish...we'll have a few above normal days, but they look kind of weak...like highs in the mid to upper 30s for a day or two (maybe 40s in the torch spots)...the storm after MLK day will obviously play a factor, if it ends up west of us, then we will definitely have a really mild day, but it's looking less likely now that it will go west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Sunday still looks kind of mildish...we'll have a few above normal days, but they look kind of weak...like highs in the mid to upper 30s for a day or two (maybe 40s in the torch spots)...the storm after MLK day will obviously play a factor, if it ends up west of us, then we will definitely have a really mild day, but it's looking less likely now that it will go west.Good news all around . Last thing we need are a few Sunny mild days . Any chance that 1/21 deal ends up shredded out south of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 Good news all around . Last thing we need are a few Sunny mild days . Any chance that 1/21 deal ends up shredded out south of us? It wouldn't shock me at all. The ensemble mean is pretty weak looking actually and it's south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 It's coming,the constant angst will soon be relieved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 It's coming,the constant angst will soon be relieved. Its still going to end up a below normal snow winter, the only exception would be we get a KU event which is entirely possible but right now my guesses for the bigger cities on winter snow are BOS - 28, NYC - 18, ORH - 55, PVD - 22...thats pretty disgustingly bad, I'm assuming no KU, if that happens then those could be at least 12 inches higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Will can I get your thoughts on the OES potential for tomorrow over Cape Cod and Plymouth, MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Models are beginning to edge towards producing precipitation over Cape Cod and Eastern MA for the coastal storm this upcoming week, and OES and a potential inverted trough. Any chance the HIRES NAM and NAM and SREFs are right, even EURO shows some moisture clipping Cape Cod come the 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 It's coming,the constant angst will soon be relieved. It has to come...climo is going to catch up to this sometime for at least a 2-3 week period of good SNE winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 It has to come...climo is going to catch up to this sometime for at least a 2-3 week period of good SNE winter. It didn't in 11-12, so why would it this winter? Maybe for you northerners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Yep, ...just 10 months - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 It didn't in 11-12, so why would it this winter? Maybe for you northerners. This isn't that winter. This is a weak El Nino with good cold nearby. That winter was warm even in Canada. I agree with those thinking it won't be a true dead ratter. I'm not saying above normal snowfall season is about to happen... I just think you guys at some point will rattle off at least a 2-3 week period that brings some joy. Folks like Ray/40/70 aren't going another month with 1-5" of snowfall. I think climo will catch up with that to some point. Maybe its just one 6-12" event and a couple advisory events or something, but you'll get a wintery period. I'm not ready to toss that. February is the snowiest month on average in SNE, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.